Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[garymott] 23/9/2011 11:30

superg1,

You must really be living in a parallel universe to most rational people! You've just done again what I've just accused you of on the FUM BB. So, why not respond to the point in question? For example,

1) where is your evidence that the AVN BOD is corrupt as you posted early this year?
2) where is the reference to your 'fact' that Hylas 1 was originally going to be filled within/about 1 year?
3) what is your response to your post that the debt payments will wipe out all the profits from Hylas 1 when there is no debt for Hylas 1 and the debt for Hylas 2 is due some 6 months or so after lauch of Hylas 2?
4) what is your response to my post (in response to your post) that the majority of the business model is not consumer broadband which is all you ever post about?

[superg1] 23/9/2011 11:14

It's not a case of lying. When the idea was there and the sat being built Avanti was first.

Truth is 12 KA sata will be up there by the time Hyals 2 is functional. Avonline Tooway are already cutting prices for installation etc which must means demand isn't that high.

10mb limit and that's £50 a month. There are other options appearing at a better price. If Allpay see good demand for their broadband set up. I'm sure other companies will seek to exploit the idea.

So prices and therefore revenues will have to come down.

[yorgi] 23/9/2011 11:09

Days like this are the time to buy/add and not sell. The technology is proven and the share price is in no way reflecting what is going on in the company.....unless we have been lied to.....and I don't believe that.

[duffhead] 23/9/2011 11:05

Looking forward to the results on 3rd October if share price doesnt go up beforehand I think its bound to afterwards taking into account directors comments on progress. share price is cheap as chips at this price.

[superg1] 23/9/2011 10:15

This is worth a read



I know it perhaps is negative towards avanti but you have to pay attention to competition.

It's about allpay (Herefordshire) the wireless (church steeple/high point) providers.

A friend popped around for coffee (just) and was all excited about getting better broadband. There speeds even on BB are something like 0.2.

I'm on 2mb but actual speeds are DL 1.3 and up .5.

All pay offer up to 35mb with the 10mb service priced at £30. they tell me the receiver installation cost is £100 and it will be a godsend for them as they both work from home. The link comment says it all.

Frustratingly as I live so close to the main town I can't get the wireless BB offered. Even more frustrating is the 'out in the sticks area' I just moved from offers up to 35mb.

The area coverage doesn't seem huge for each point, but all it needs is high points or high buildings to bring a new area on line.

My initial thought was that the speeds and prices are reasonable. Will it be taken up across the country (I don't know). I know I want the service but I can't get it at the moment.

[blackberrydrop] 23/9/2011 10:10

Superg1 – there is no debt relating to HYLAS 1. It's all funded with equity. Also, if you bothered to read last year's accounts (published in Dec) they say there's no debt repayments for two years, so that'll be another year from this December 2011 – by which time HYLAS 2 will have been up for 6 months or more. Once again you're posting incorrect info.

[knackers] 23/9/2011 09:47

"Perhaps the directors will buy more..."

LOL - unlikely. They learned a lesson: Don't catch a falling knife and don't believe your own BS.

It's tough for holders, but I wouldn't call the bottom. Not even now...no way, Jose.

[superg1] 23/9/2011 09:19

Loan payments start Dec 2012 so a bit of breathing space I guess.

I suspect there are a lot of Avanti investors waiting for the year end results before they decide what to do next. Perhaps the directors will buy some more once the close period is over

[superg1] 22/9/2011 16:47

FUM has had a seller off loading nad hence it falls.

I'd win the cut and patses hands down Gary but I'm not wasting my time on that.

What does matter to the Avanti PI's is what the hell is happening. Check the CEO out on you tube with his £25 per share comment post Hylas 1 launch.

There was great psoitivity that Hylas 1 would be full well within the 3 year target.

Very few mention the loan payments that have to be made. I don't know when they start, but they are not insignificant and wipe out most if not all what Hylas 1 can produce in revenue.

It waould be fair to assume that things are not running as smoothly as they anticipated as we wouldn't be here arguing on the matter.

The fact is AVN is now at a price it was at over 2 years ago.

As for FUM a bit of a mystery too but just that seller it seems. But my suspicions are they are talking with or about to talk with Pfizer and then FUM will be gone.

I only have 5 shares I'm really interested in at the moment, that's now 4 as an offer came in for one of them (CTN) 2 days ago. I suspect 3 of the 4 left will face similar issues soon

[jeffian] 22/9/2011 10:02

Gorvachof,
That's not my point. Since Hylas 1 was successfully placed in orbit, the argument has moved on from technical (latency etc) and competition issues to the straightforward question of will they sell the capacity, how quickly and for how much? In any field, there will always be competing technologies or even progress that renders entire areas redundant (e.g. digital cameras killing film), but having the existing technology and investment in place gives some advantage which wasn't there before the Hylas launch. Now the onus is on those who want to put risk investment into beacons on church steeples or running copper wires up to John O'Groats to do so in the knowledge that their potential customers already have a service they can sign up to today.

You can have all the arguments you like about the technology, but you can't argue with cash. If AVN do what they say they can do, they will prosper, and I look forward to some guidance from them on 3/10.

[garymott] 22/9/2011 09:59

sugerg1,

Precisely. You know precious few facts and without facts you have no integrity or credibility, just your selective personal opinion.

Yes the share price has fallen, but so too has FUM since you recommended here to all to sell AVN and buy FUM at about 85p. Now its 63.5p sell, 65p buy. Let's hope you're right with the results on Tuesday because there's a hell of alot of hype on the FUM BB.

[superg1] 22/9/2011 09:25

Gary I don't have to, I know the facts exist find them yourself.

Fact is the shre continues to fall.

I was hoping it had broken the downtrend for you guys but it seems it hasn't and 250 is highly likey now.

However to confirm this breakof support it has to close at this level so hopefully it will recover as the day goes on.

I see nothing news or circumstance wise to significantly reverse this.

A takeover maybe who knows but that will be way below it's highs

[garymott] 22/9/2011 09:22

someuwin,

Pipeline is defined at the bottom of the same 18 April 2011 RNS I was referring to in my post as follows:-

"Backlog is defined as the aggregate value of legally binding purchase commitments from customers and does not include framework contracts or non binding targets. Pipeline is defined as the aggregate value of potential new customer contracts for HYLAS 1 and 2 services which are at post-proposal negotiation stage."

[gorvachof] 22/9/2011 08:44

jeffian - 19 Sep'11 - 22:24 - 6722 of 6732
Im sure the other companies have perfectly viable solutions...they had to qualify in the first place.

[2350220] 20/9/2011 16:12

Blimey, it's up and down like the proverbial fiddler's elbow.

John

[garymott] 20/9/2011 13:00

someuwin,

Pipeline is defined in one of their recent RNSs. I will find it and post it later this week when I have time.

superg1,

You have not addressed my key points.

[yorgi] 20/9/2011 12:21

I have very gladly added at todays low price but will have to wait till October no doubt before we have confirmation of what a good price this will be in the long term.

[superg1] 20/9/2011 10:54

Does anyone know how many KA sats will be up there by the end of 2012 ???.

[superg1] 20/9/2011 10:36

Gary

I did read those details along with various claims of £10 plus post launch, and £500 PA from Hylas 2 alone.


A post from an Avanti supporter (RDG) at the time.

The majority possibly including Sg1, have lost what I believe Sg1 was attempting to do - not a blatant deramp but a warning not to get trapped in all the hype. There could have quite easily been a bull run on Mondays opening and many could have chased higher and higher prices before the MM's pulled the plug and trapped everyone in at sky high prices.

I think a concession from Sg1 would go far - The bull run and MM's trap did not materalise. The highest share price anyone paid was 770 and there were very few at this price, the majority of trades have happened between 710 and 740. With this in mind and given the range we have seen since Monday I think it is fair to say no one has been trapped here.

Concession is also needed on the otherside, postings stating Hylas 2 has 10 times the capacity of Hylas1 is factually incorrect, furthermore attaching 400 -£500m of revenue to Hylas 2 to justify an share price of £25 is also factually incorrect and quite frankly laughable.

You have to admit Gary my intentions were good, and how many are 'trapped' in the £7 range as predicted.

If you look back I was even cheeky enough to predict pre launch prices and £3.50.

I even went mad enough to suggest £2.50. I think the closest it got was about £2.70.

So I'm a little closer to the current price than the Plethora of £10 plus predictions post launch.

Talking of Plethora (Plethora solutions), that's the only other share I have gone onto to advise against the hype. Then 33p now 3p.

I want Pi's to make money but not to get caught out in the hype. I wish all PI's well here and I hope it turns around soon and goes violently north.

I won't be buying any right now as I don't see that until we near Hyals 2 launch and certainly not before the year end report

[superg1] 20/9/2011 09:54

J1

Yes it's been great timing hasn't it and one of my top 5 to invest in post FUM has had an offer on it today (CTN).

Never mind there are plenty of others to consider. Perhaps even Avanti one day!

[jonnyno1] 20/9/2011 09:23

no more so than our friend round the corner sg. these greeks and now italians! i can just see big news coming from FUM just as the market tumbles 300 points!

will no doubt be the same here!

J.

[superg1] 20/9/2011 08:59

Gary

All I did at the start was challenge the very biased hype posts. When I read no competition again and again, I just point out other options.

This has been called a bargain all the way down from the 700's. When shares drop like this, besides shorting, presume there is an unknown issue and things are not going to plan.

I note RHPS seem to have given up on the hyper hype drive for now.

I had a little exchange with TB recently over his hype and other shares he fails to mention.

In his words the shares he does not tip. 'Don't need his help'. What does that say???

He calls some shares over the 50p mark, 'not penny shares' due to their price but tips Avanti in the high £'s range. His reply to that challenge was 'fair point'.

It does look like there is a market, and at the time of the idea things looked very rosey. We are now in a severe recession. In the boom time I'm sure the uptake would have been rampant, but clearly it seems, it is not, in these difficult times.

The sats have a 15 year lifespan suggested. They may work for that long but technology will be far different in 5 years time, let alone 15. So to me the 15 year lifespan probably has a big dilution effect revenue wise as time goes on and technology moves on.

I note on Hylas 3 they are seeking loans etc rather than dilution. Around 5/6% as bonds would be double this.

It looks as thouigh once they start paying the Hylas 2 loan, costs will be about £50m PA so they need to exceed that before profits are mentioned.

The year end results should help.


Besides all that, there are many shares close to significant profits that are way below there potential on the share price. So it could simply be that, causing the slide.

The market seems to have abandoned anything not making a profit.

This BB has become a lot more balanced via a number of posters. I was unfotunately the lone 'caution' guy in all the hype.

[someuwin] 20/9/2011 08:53

...Define pipeline.

[garymott] 20/9/2011 04:25

sugerg1,

Almost all your posts re AVN are based on your biased, negative opinions which are rarely, if ever, substantiated by facts. For example, the last time you posted that Hylas 1 was expected to be full within a year someone asked you for the origin of your statement to which you replied that you no longer research the company, a weak reply indeed!

You have still not replied to my post (26 Aug'11 – 18:07 – 6573 of 6722) which I'll repeat below:-

Lastly, regarding AVN, the share price has gone in the direction you stated. However, one of your main arguments to support this was that you believed the BOD to be corrupt and that there is 'no smoke without fire' regarding a heavily falling share price. Do you still believe the BOD is corrupt and where is the evidence to support your claim that there was something fundamentally flawed with the company?

Are you going to conveniently ignore the point of many of your posts early this year of which I have read every one (and there were many!)

Just one simple example of your bias is your preoccupation with consumer broadband and how you misrepresent the entire prospects of the business in doing so. How many times does it need saying that this is only one of a number of segments making up the business model. To substantiate my statement I refer to the RNS as follows:-

Date: 18 April 2011
On behalf of: Avanti Communications Group plc ("Avanti" or "the Company")
Embargoed until: 0700hrs

......Approximately 52% of backlog revenues relates to Enterprise and Military applications and customers (not including the HYLAS 2 option), with the balance relating to SME and Consumer broadband. Avanti expects backhaul business to soon become a significant percentage of backlog.

Avanti is also pleased to report that the increased credibility generated from successful service launch has resulted in an increase to the pipeline. The pipeline now stands at £427.2m.

[jeffian] 19/9/2011 22:24

I'm an amateur, me. So you can set up a 'pilot scheme' to see if something works, or you can go out and buy something that's already in place and does work. It doesn't seem a very difficult decision to me.