Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[codhead1] 16/9/2011 07:35

Guys - Watch out for the expected downing comment from E.K. to maintain his short bet after todays contract win. And ofcourse the positive comments from T.W.

[someuwin] 16/9/2011 07:33

Hmm - not sure how they can call this a 'contract win'.

Looks a bit desperate to me - I thought RNS's were reserved for price sensitive information. This is of no consequence at all to a £250m company.

I am starting to think buying back in here was a mistake.

[k0108356] 16/9/2011 07:26

Yorgi

One County Council at a time suppose could be the debate. The UK Govt. is looking for further investment into not spots and as we know local decision's made in the County Council's do take forever. Hopefully this will be a sign of things to come, we sure as hell could with an uptick from here, seem to be dragged back whenever we get to around 340p of late.

DP

[yorgi] 16/9/2011 07:10

We have another contract win announced :

"Avanti Communications Group plc

Contract Win

Avanti Communications Group plc (AIM: AVN), the satellite operator, is pleased to announce that, following a competitive tender, it has been awarded a place on the Kent County Council Rural Broadband framework, which will access funds of at least GBP1.5m to set up pilot projects to address the rural not spots of Kent using a range of technologies, including satellite.

Avanti is the only satellite broadband provider selected."

Although this may not be huge it shows that Kent County Council considers the merits of AVN's satellite technology is a way of bringing broadband to some of their rural not spots. As I say it does not look like a big deal to me but "another brick in the wall" to building the business for what it will be in the future.

[geheimnis2] 16/9/2011 00:04

thanks yorgi

[yorgi] 15/9/2011 09:29

Mercants sell note clearly has had an effect on the share price it is going to need some good news at the time of the results to counter that I'm afraid.

My view has not changed and still happy to keep my holding in the expectation of being well rewarded over the next few years.

[yorgi] 14/9/2011 19:31

TW's comments.


Avanti Communications - SELL, 317.3pp

Government to fast track rural broadband investment

The UK Government is set to accelerate capital spending, including rural broadband.

The Avanti valuation is based on its first satellite, already in space, which is well sold and the potential of the second.

Alternative technologies are an increasing danger, including Government backed investment in land-lines or the use of analogue terrestrial TV frequencies for internet delivery (already proven in Australia and in test in the UK).

With Avanti sitting on 39x Yr2 PER the rating is vulnerable, selling to within 10% of a 30x PER would suggest a 264p target price.

-----ENDS-----

Our informed sources suggest that Merchant Securities has never spoken to Avanti Communications to develop any insight or to debate their viewpoint, suggesting that the view held by the analyst is based on a number of newspaper articles. As anyone with an ability to think will know, this is not sufficient to base your investment recommendation on - and shows a lack of care and due dilligence. I have been informed by reliable sources that the views held by the broker are wrong.

As will be shown very shortly, Government funding will support satellite broadband and will support Avanti's business. In fact, a portion of the government subsidy has been specifically ring-fenced for satellite, as it is impossible for terrestrial technologies to reach everywhere - despite the best wishes of BT's PR department. With that said, using BT's own estimate of 2% of families in the UK needing satellite, I note that HYLAS 1 will not have enough capacity in the UK to serve it all.

The analyst's comments about trials of analogue TV frequencies is, likewise, a PR team's puff job. There is no equipment, no protocols and no timing for a roll-out of these dreamt up projects. He's obviously just read the Ofcom press release from two weeks ago - which after a splash across the front of the FT, has sunk without trace following more detailed questioning of Offcom.

With the share currently trading at 319.75p, my view remains as here and here. "Strong buy".

[jeffian] 14/9/2011 13:20

#6686,

If the 'Top 10' is based on value, that may be a reflection of the fact that the share price has declined nearly 60% from its high point over the past 8 months or so!

[blefh182] 14/9/2011 13:14

Merchant securities has put a sell recommendation on Avanti with a price target of £2.64
Yet Tom W from T1ps believes they are wrong

[2350220] 14/9/2011 12:16

When I received the latest T1PS Growth Fund newsletter, I noticed that Avanti was no longer listed in the top ten holdings.

I asked if the position had been sold out/closed and the reply came back that they still have their holding, but it's just not in the top ten on the list.

John W

[gorvachof] 13/9/2011 23:28

Hi Scrutable,
Forcasted revenue of a full capacity Hylas 1 was between £40-45m per annum. Considering that the less than half full Hylas 1 had only been in service for 3 full months before year end, combined with any loss of revenue from halting its leasing business it is likely that revenues may not be materially different from that of FY 2010? If I remember correctly someone had previously posted on here broker forcasts for full year and they varied widely?
The question is can Avanti fill Hylas 1 with contracts on price and in the times they projected. Margins are generally high for operators in general and debt is not payable until Dec 2012? by which time Hylas 2 should be booking sufficient revenue itself.

[scrutable] 12/9/2011 13:42

I noticed AVN in the early days two years ago and recommended the company to friends as a technology and company which was ineveitably going to do well in the future unless there were serious problems with the launch of Hylas 1. My name is now mud amongst those who rely on accounting facts rather than on marketing potential for their investments but it does look now as though the exponential growth curve will become more visible soon to all and sundry.

Could someone who has followed the company closely whilst I temporarily turned to greener fields in the Resources area, tell me

a) how much turnover the company can expect when the whole capacity of Hylas is fully loaded

b) why the concensus turnover forecast for FY 2011 is no higher than for 2010? has it taken 7 months since the launch date to monetise the capacity created? Or have the forecasters got it wildly wrong? Do you all expect the actual results to substantially outperform the forecasts? Was the capacity loading of hylas 1 never going to generate sufficient revenue to cover company overheads?

Anyhow it does look as though the share price will recover sharply. Clearly the outlook for broadband services is not coupled to the general economy. It even looks like a better hedge to me than gold mining.

[yorgi] 12/9/2011 12:28

Very good to be up today with all the red around us......all the way to the results and beyond would be good. :-)

[gorvachof] 12/9/2011 01:04

Geh,
From David Williams own words recently "We are constantly evaluating the opportunities for Ka-band satellites in new geographies" one can assume the coverage area for any proposed satellite beyond H2 is not fixed and depends on where demand takes them?

& according to
Hylas 1 - 3ghz (frequency bandwidth)
Hylas 2 - 8.28ghz

Yorgi,
Interesting you note I didn't comment when Caledonian increased their holdings, I'm sure this board would have had no problem posting that info at the time. To be honest I dont think I even made comment when Aegon sold down through the first threshold of 6% or 5%. This time however I (As you say "intellectually challenged") was merely correcting what you had missed.

Blue forever,
It would be silly to say that Aegons selling is not significant, considering they have sold nearly 1% since their last RNS and not just the 400000 since July. However you are correct it could have been for a variety of reasons, going by whats in the news they have their own problems.

So one might say....nothing to worry about?? :)

[geheimnis2] 11/9/2011 12:07

does anyone know what geographical coverage hylas 3 will give?

also how much more capacity does hylas 2 have compared to hylas 1?

[martincoops] 10/9/2011 22:01

I expect this has been mentioned before but a little more about Hughes is below.

Hughes Europe and Avanti Make 'Broadband for All' a Reality
New High Capacity Satellite Internet Offering Enables Reseller Partners to Bring
Broadband to Millions of European Consumers and Small Businesses
Milton Keynes, UK, 02 August 2011―According to the latest data published by Eurostat,
broadband penetration rates average only 25 percent across EU countries, leaving over 30
million households and small businesses without high-speed Internet access. To address this
vast untapped market, Hughes Europe is announcing a program for value-added resellers to
offer high-speed Internet access using the company's market-leading HN satellite platform,
operating over Avanti's high-capacity, Ka-band satellite, Hylas 1.
Hughes was the first company to launch consumer satellite broadband services and today
remains the world leader in this market, with more than 660,000 subscribers in North
America. "Our strategy is to build on this success by working with a strong VAR network
across Europe to provide an affordable and competitive consumer satellite offering, powered
by Hughes technology," said Christopher Britton, managing director, Hughes Europe.
Leading international satellite services provider and Hughes Europe channel partner,
Bentley Walker, is the first to sign on and is buying a range of grades of service as it looks
to extend its business into the consumer broadband market in the UK. Bentley Walker
already has substantial experience providing broadband voice and data services to military
personnel across the Middle East and Afghanistan using Hughes technology.
Anthony Walker, CEO of Bentley Walker, sees this as an exciting development for the
channel. "The availability of Ka-band represents a major step forward in the provision of
broadband for all, making it a reality across the UK," he stated. "With our strong history of
success working with Hughes Europe, together with its reputation for technical excellence,
we are delighted to be among the first resellers to take full advantage of the new broadband
services for consumers."
Britton added, "Thanks to our partnership with Avanti and through our VAR channels, users
throughout Europe will benefit from high quality broadband at the speeds they choose-
which are available immediately, so they can instantly become part of today's high-speed
Internet generation."
-MoreHughes
Europe Makes "Broadband for All" a Reality, page 2
Avanti Communications also sees this as an important development. "As a result of strong
commercial demand, the satellite industry already contributes substantially to the UK
economy," said Matthew O'Connor, chief operating officer. "The addition of Ka-band highspeed
satellite services for both consumers and businesses can only add to this success
story."
About Hughes Europe
Hughes Europe is the European operating and sales organisation for Hughes Network
Systems, LLC (HUGHES) with facilities in Germany, the UK, and Italy. Utilising its
satellite hub earth station and network operations centre in Griesheim, Germany, Hughes
Europe provides Hughes broadband satellite and terrestrial solutions to large enterprises,
government organisations, and small businesses throughout the continent, both directly and
through a growing family of value-added service providers. These networks support rapid,
reliable transmission of data, voice, video and multimedia content. For more information,
please visit www.hugheseurope.com.
About Hughes Network Systems
Hughes Network Systems, LLC (Hughes) is the world's leading provider of satellite
broadband for home and office, delivering innovative network technologies, managed
services and solutions for enterprises and governments globally. HughesNet® is the #1 highspeed
satellite Internet service in the marketplace, with offerings to suit every budget. To
date, Hughes has shipped more than 2.5 million systems to customers in over 100 countries,
representing over 50 percent market share. Its products employ global standards approved
by TIA, ETSI and ITU organisations, including IPoS/DVB-S2, RSM-A, and GMR-1.
Headquartered outside Washington, D.C., in Germantown, Maryland, USA, Hughes
operates sales and support offices worldwide, and is a wholly owned subsidiary of EchoStar
Corporation (NASDAQ: SATS), a premier global provider of satellite operations and digital
TV solutions. For additional information about Hughes, please visit www.hughes.com.
###
©2011 Hughes Network Systems, LLC. Hughes and HughesNet are registered trademarks of Hughes Network
Systems, LLC.

[yorgi] 10/9/2011 21:44

Good find Martin. Well it's interesting that's for sure and it has to be good news surely, it will be good to know more about it.

[martincoops] 10/9/2011 20:09

Any one have thoughts on this

[yorgi] 09/9/2011 15:37

We hope Jeffian :-)

[yorgi] 09/9/2011 15:30

Lavagrouch,

Yes I am all for balance if someone has valid points of concern we may all appreciate being made aware. However from all I can recall of Gorvachof's posts they are all negative and I wouldn't say any balance. Points out Kames/Aegon having reduced their holding but did not acknowledge the positive the fact that Caledonia added considerably to their holding earlier in the year. And put a negative slant on directors buys over the last few months. If you look back you will see what I mean.

Regards

Yorgi

[lavagrouch] 09/9/2011 15:22

rwilliams57 repeating discredited nonsense, probably deserves the wrath of the board. Gorvachof on the other hand is only pointing out facts, Kames /Aegon have sold some of their holding - let's have some balance please.

[jeffian] 09/9/2011 09:57

It's quite simple really; they either sell the capacity or they don't. All will be revealed shortly, one hopes.

[jonnib] 09/9/2011 08:14

gorvachov your attempts to get old hat debates going are going to be futile. There are a very limited amount of posters on here and all have seen your type over the last 6 months so i doubt anyone will listen to you or the others who conveniently appear. In the last 4 years i cannot remember a time when this share was ramped by the main posters. Yes lots of positive posting was going on but there was also lots of good debate over other technologies and it only got slightly out of control when misleading info was posted. I for one am happy to let the diector buying over the last few years influence me and not the drivel spouted on here by a few.
Long term i have no doubt this will come good so if you want a fast profit go chase another stock...

[yorgi] 08/9/2011 22:32

Yes that was the one Blue.

Well said Jonnib, I had written some similar comments myself plus a few but then someone looked over my shoulder and told me to have more sympathy with those who are intellectually challenged :-)