Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[gnnmartin] 21/3/2011 13:47

Estienne, I quite agree.
Nigel Martin

[volvo] 21/3/2011 13:17

ASOS not looking like the best short today, near its all time high. The footie pundit has made a classic and expensive mistake there. Hope you call this one right or you are taking the quick route to the poor house. Was it Man City yesterday for the value?

[someuwin] 21/3/2011 11:50

Should be easily back over 500p this week imo.

[via con] 21/3/2011 11:11

Yorgi

I hope you´re right, but I do find it most disconcerting that both companies have seen their respected share price fall by a third since December. I understand the issues here, and indeed ISAT, but it is nevertheless peculiar that both have taken a similar hit and in ISAT´s case seemingly without SC´s FUD agenda.

[greengiant] 21/3/2011 11:08

Simon,

His information is flawed in so much as it is SkyLogics intention to move all existing Ku Band customers off Ku and onto Ka within this calendar year. This is causing serious problems for existing Ku customers who basically have to change their equipment as well as having to get someone to change their dish and the direction of their dish. This is due, no doubt your informant is aware, to the fact tha ka is based at 13° East with an Azimuth of 159.0°.

Now you say your informant has been speaking to resellers, however, he has not spoken to the 2 largest in the UK. I find this strange and slightly amusing as both will be offering Hylas and TooWay solutions. As I am sure you will agree it is easy to find someone to talk negatively about a company if you look long enough. Also Tooway are reviewing their fair usage policy.

Like I said, don't mind shorters at least you back it up with your own money, so good luck, you will need it.

gg

[yorgi] 21/3/2011 10:32

I've not monitored Inmarsat Via but I wouldn't say AVN has been pumped it clearly has a business with potential for immense growth in a sector that requires large amounts of capital and expertise with high level of risk to start with but in the long term good return on the capital. So this is why the share price rose to such levels and will I'm confident return that way in time. However for the time being as there are those that don't do the research but follow the likes of SC blindly the share price is where it is.

[via con] 21/3/2011 10:20

I was wondering whether anyone here has been monitoring Inmarsat. I mention this as it has fallen over 32 % since its high in December.

Is this purely coincidental ? Or is there something more ? Is it a sectorial issue ? Have satellite companies been pumped up to dump ?

I appreciate the companies are very different but it is their price action which seems to connect them.

Any views on this coincidence ?

TIA

[blackberrydrop] 21/3/2011 09:59

Simon,

You and your mis-informed lackey conveniently ignore the 60 plus service providers Avanti has signed up across the UK and Europe. The UK is just a fraction of their market and so your notion that Avanti is uncompetitive is total hogwash.

Also, rural broadband is just a small part of the story. There is huge demand for services amongst enterprise, which is well established, an example being Avanti's contracts with Huges (which just happens to be the largest provider of enterprise services in the World). Lets also not forget other well documented markets such as military satellite communications and mobile backhaul in places like the middle east and africa. If you're going to critacise then it might be worthwhile looking at the bigger picture, not just the piece which suits your needs.

On the subject of your lackey, why wont you name him or he air his views publicly? Is it because he is regulated and by working in concert with you to try to drive down Avanti's share price, he'd be breaking the law?

[yorgi] 21/3/2011 08:06

Quite so Geheimnis :-)

[naeclue] 20/3/2011 21:55

I'm a little confused here. As far as I can see, Avanti offer a price plan with no limit on data used. Eutelstat adjust their pricing based on data used.

You seem to be saying that Avanti is trying to charge about 3 times more for exactly the same thing, thus it's an obvious short. But surely if that is the case, no distributors would be signing up for Avanti at all, until Eutelstat was completely sold out.

Similarly why would anyone be funding Avanti at all? I know people can be a bit slow on the uptake, and the king was wearing no clothes, but are all those folks wrong?

I'd like to figure out rough costs for a 15GB a month user with Eutelstat vs Avanti. Same again for 1GB and 25GB. Does anyone have this data?

I guess we'll see how sales actually go, once Eutelstat get into full service.

[geheimnis2] 20/3/2011 21:46

chaps

i advise to ignore cawky

he enjoys making inflammatory comments - including circulating the "dodgy dossier" on pdx and referrring to the company as a scam

[simon cawkwell] 20/3/2011 20:52

My informant has just commented that "I do not see what was flawed in my information. I am aware that Eutelsat serve current broadband customers other both ku-band and ka-band, but I am pretty sure a new customer would be added on ka-band (otherwise, as one ADVFN correspondent suggests, he would then have to pay again for hardware to access ka-sat) and it is the price to new customers that Cenkos were comparing (and I was correcting)."

So there I think you have it: it remains lunatic to own AVN.

Simon Cawkwell

[yorgi] 20/3/2011 20:07

Simon,

As you have raised the subject of little and large by my calculations your about twice the weight you should be so as a friendly suggestion you should try shorting yourself until you come down to fair value of about 13 stone :-)

Greengiant,

Yes, fair point in your post 4670.

[greengiant] 20/3/2011 12:38

Simon,

Your informants information on Hotbird 6 is seriously flawed. He may know less about Hotbird 6 than you think, very few customers of Tooway are currently being served by Ka Band, which is causing an issue for Eutelsat in the change over from Ku to Ka, as your informant will know these customers have to now duplicate their costs incurred in making the switch. This is not in anyway being subsidised by Eutelsat, which of course is causing issues for customers, but I am sure your informant knows this.

I have no issues with anyone short, best of luck to you. As I said earlier, the issue here is not whether Avanti can charge premium prices, it is whether at those prices it can fill its satellites. I am confident it will, but the coming weeks will determine this issue.

gg

[simon cawkwell] 20/3/2011 12:15

JOHN53,

My position is unchanged. TW is reproducing Avanti's paid team's comments. My man is not remotely in hock to Avanti.

Of course, I must stress that he remains short and cannot therefore be said to have no interest in the matter. But, then again, why would he alight on Avanti as a short if he were not to reckon Avanti seriously overvalued? Only a fool shorts a stock relying upon his mere public deramping to achieve success - that sort of character gets carried out of the race very early on - and never returns.

Simon Cawkwell

[john53] 20/3/2011 11:30

Simon Cawkwell,

Your "little or large" informant may have good manners but neither he or your good self have answered the points made by TW in which he demolished your so called evidence.

[malcolmmm] 20/3/2011 11:27

well I agree with you on the manners bit Simon, banter and differences of opinion aside some remarks on here are personal and rude

[simon cawkwell] 20/3/2011 10:44

greengiant,

How do you claim to know my informant is "little"?

Even for someone of my dimensions, over six foot and twenty-six stones, he strikes me as of average build. He has the further merits of good manners and confining himself to evidence - which he handles carefully and knowledgably.

Simon Cawkwell

[greengiant] 19/3/2011 13:18

yorgi,

It may not be shorters, it may (and most likely will be) some people closing their positions from the early 410's which SC so kindly gave people the opportunity to buy at. Whilst SC cannot understand the reasoning behind premium pricing, the simple truth (simple for a simple man) is that currently Avanti are achieving pricing above market expectations. This taken fro the RNS dated 15/03

"The contract, which commands pricing which exceeds market expectations,"

Also from the Interims:

"The average prices per MHz per month are materially ahead of expectations. "

Now whether SC and his little informant likes it or not, the simple truth is that prices are ahead of expectations. The key question here is whether they can win the contracts to fill the satellites. The 15/03 RNS goes some way and IF more contracts are announced in the coming weeks, all critics comments will have been resoundingly answered. It is also interesting to note that there are less than 500 customers being serviced through Ka Band in the UK. The majority are still going through Ku Band on Hotbird 6

gg

[yorgi] 18/3/2011 15:33

We can but hope Plasterkay.......but at the moment it looks like the shorters have it :-(