Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[simon cawkwell] 16/3/2011 16:16

Gentlemen,

I have just received this comment on the Cenkos note:

"This research note is so bad it is either laughably incompetent or something worse. I will only bother to correct one of the many material errors. On p.4 they have a table showing the cost of various broadband services. Column 2 is the current Tooway service, prior to commercial services starting from ka-sat in May. Firstly they say this is ku-band, in fact it is a ka-band service from Hotbird 6. Secondly they state the speed is 3Mbps, in fact it is 3.6Mbps. And thirdly they state the monthly cost is GBP 99 - which implies Avanti's service is much cheaper. This is the link to their source - As anyone but the blind and Avanti's house broker can see, the current monthly price for Tooway starts at GBP 26 with four price points up to GBP 99 a month (and remember this before ka-sat capacity is even operational). I would suggest anyone who has money at stake speaks to resellers themselves, as I have done several times, to get the truth. Tooway is going to be much cheaper for the same service."

However you look at it, there are serious questions to answer. Anybody who holds this stock is bonkers.

Simon Cawkwell

[restassured] 16/3/2011 16:15

I am a mormon,so no gambling for me.

[simon cawkwell] 16/3/2011 16:11

restassured,

Topically, I advise that my bet in the 4.40 is £5,000/£45,000 Paintball. This exercise will be carried out in your absence (please forgive me).

SC

[yorgi] 16/3/2011 16:10

Lightening does not always strike :-)

[geheimnis2] 16/3/2011 16:06

no rejoinder to that one is there cawky

haha

[restassured] 16/3/2011 16:00

I guess it is possible with the use of extensive mirroring.

[simon cawkwell] 16/3/2011 15:57

restassured,

Rest assured, it was this morning.

Simon Cawkwell

[simon cawkwell] 16/3/2011 15:50

Gentlemen,

I am not absolutely sure what the connection between Big Zeb and AVN is. However, since interest is clearly developed, I also mention that I have got £2,000 EW Lightning Strike at 28/1 in the 4.00.

Simon Cawkwell

[greengiant] 16/3/2011 15:32

Funny that (Avanti) SIZING (up) EUROPE took it

Gg

[yorgi] 16/3/2011 15:26

I guess as well not to follow Cawkwell blindly.....Big Zeb didn't have it :-)

[yorgi] 16/3/2011 14:18

Sort of rings a bell with me Colva but without a bit of digging I'm not sure, was it in one of TW's comprehensive reports maybe.

[yorgi] 16/3/2011 14:13

Yes I have that on the list Restassured

[colva] 16/3/2011 14:12

Jeffries note

"with no debt payments or covenants
until 2013 and $30m of excess reserves required by the ECA loans".

I thought AVN had a debt repayment due at the end of next year?

[yorgi] 16/3/2011 14:10

Thank you Blackberry will add :-)

[yorgi] 16/3/2011 14:09

It hasn't Billy thank you for posting.

[blackberrydrop] 16/3/2011 14:08

Yorgi - Dont forget Liberum and Charles Stanley in your second list.

[restassured] 16/3/2011 14:07

Thanks and it confirms the true picture that is emerging.

I don't give anyone who bets on anything that moves much kudos.

[billytkid2] 16/3/2011 14:00

The jeffries report from yesterday incase it hasn't been posted:

Key Takeaway
In our view, the current share price represents an outstanding buying
opportunity. Avanti's enterprise value is currently £425m (including £30m net
debt), which we believe is less than the value of its spectrum excluding the
equity portion of Hylas-1 and Hylas-2.
Hylas-1 yesterday successfully completed its in orbit testing, and it will begin
services next week. The 5,000 UK broadband customers already serviced by the company
using leased Ku-band capacity will start to migrate onto Hylas-1 on April 4, as will the
customers of the 60 VNO's who have bought capacity.
In addition, the company today announces a contract win from a VNO worth
€7.1m over seven years. The customer currently has 3,000 broadband customers on
a competitor's Ku-band satellite. Pricing is 'better than market expectations', which we
assume means in the region of £1,400 per MHz/month (JEF: £1,275).
There is no transparent pricing on the raw satellite spectrum, but we can make
a few comments which indicate that Avanti is currently trading at less than
value of its spectrum. 1) Avanti announced in February 2009 that it had received a
takeover approach that the board rejected. The share price pre approach was just below
£2, so we would expect the bid to be atleast in the £3-4 range. This was before Hylas-1
was built and therefore the spectrum licences were still subject to 'use it or lose it' risk.
2) Avanti holds three geostationary positions and 12.6GHz of Ka-band and 1.4Ghz of Kuband
spectrum. Ku-band spectrum in Europe is beginning to hit capacity constraints and
at current pricing AVN's capacity could generate over £50m pa (average pricing £1.3 to
£1.5m per transponder per year, with Avanti having capacity for up to 40 transponders).
Capitalised at 10% and it would be worth over £300m. 3) Inmarsat sold Lightsquared Lband
spectrum in the US for over $100m pa (part of itsr 4G plans). 4) Echostar's $2bn bid for
Hughes is mainly about acquiring its Ka-band business (it has one Ka-band satellite currently
operational).
The equity value of the satellites should also be included in the share price.
Hylas-1 is fully financed by equity and has a replacement value £1.40 per share. Hylas-2
is costing £250m, and the equity proportion is worth 75p per share. We also note the
extremely conservative funding position of Avanti, with no debt payments or covenants
until 2013 and $30m of excess reserves required by the ECA loans.

[geheimnis2] 16/3/2011 13:48

cawky

do we care?

nope.

any footy tips?

[colva] 16/3/2011 13:29

For anyone interested.


SC has £20,000 on Big Zeb (3.20 today) Cheltenham at 3/1.