Atlantis Share Discussion Threads

[sugarbeast] 04/12/2003 18:40

if only.

perhaps oxford bio could invent one ?!

[baggywrinkle] 04/12/2003 18:10

The interesting thing about Ox Bios is the range of possible values for ARL stake.

You may think my calcs too optimistic, and end up at 2p per share.

Or, if all hurdles are cleared, and ARL maintain their stake through further funding rounds, and my figs are remotely realistic, it could conceivably be £15M or 22p per share - which is becoming very significant compared with present market cap.

What does that do to NAV/share ?

Who has a time telescope ?

[tom2468] 04/12/2003 10:42

I can see this climbing to 40p imo sooner than we think

[sugarbeast] 04/12/2003 09:08

I don't think you can put a ceiling on the value of Oxford,but at least there is a floor.
IPO's have been very thin on the ground this year,and if market conditions are right,Oxford's value at IPO may come as a surprise to us all.

[capt bligh] 04/12/2003 09:00

Enjoyed the read baggy... so we can say not more than 4p a share!

[baggywrinkle] 03/12/2003 18:28

CB: How about this approach to valuation ?
Selling price £1 each Annual sales in UK (Pop 50M say 10M pieces pa)
Sales from UK: £10M to doctors less say 50% sales costs = £5M revenue
(Ignores strip readers which I assume will be sold at cost to enable users to read strips. In practice there would be profit there as well.)

France, Germany Italy Spain - all the same = total £20M revenue to ARL
USA say 5 x UK = £25M revenue.

total above countries: £50M revenue (ignores rest of world)
Say nil profit from first £10M (paying all overheads) then 50%
= PBT £20M or PAT £15M
PE 10X = Value £150M

ARL stake 10% but say diluted to 5% = £7.5M

Discount at 30% per year for say 3 years = 0.34 x 7.5M = NPV £ 2.5M

On 66M shares = 4p per share.

[cockneyrebel] 03/12/2003 15:25

A superb dip to buy imo, looks like some are too.

Next leg up towards the 40p+ this deserves to be on imo.

CR

[capt bligh] 02/12/2003 15:44

Well I am not really all that sure to be honest. I think this really is a very exciting company... compare their technology with whats available and it seems a VAST improvement, the sort of thing that could be used in every doctor's surgery. But, you know ....can they bring it to market, will stumble on the FDA tests, what has the competition up their sleeves?. Its probably better to keep it out of your nav calculations and treat any proceeds as a bonus if and when they come.

[baggywrinkle] 02/12/2003 12:12

CB: OK - so what is your view of Ox Bios value to ARL ?

[capt bligh] 02/12/2003 09:02

baggy, I had this from the horses mouth

[tom2468] 02/12/2003 07:41

still cant understand the lack of interest in this one its a winner imo

[costapacket] 01/12/2003 22:33

Tom - we seem to have a lot of shares in common... keep coming across you on a variety of boards.

[orvis] 01/12/2003 13:30

TOM2468,
was that your 15,000 buy at 09;17 then?

[tom2468] 01/12/2003 09:18

this is going to blow soon imo

[baggywrinkle] 29/11/2003 12:18

CB: Are you sure that 2 more rounds of financing are planned ?
I am not sure that any more equity financing is planned.
Last November 2002:
"Recently completed second round financing to finance manufacturing capabilities and operational infrastructure that meets regulatory needs of global healthcare markets and will take technology to market during 2003.

Concentrate on development and manufacture.
Partner with diagnostic marketing companies to deliver products to global markets.
Technology: microelectrodes, novel enzyme and detection systems.
Strong IP, more than 10 patent under application.

Took lease on 11,291 ft2 premises in Oxford industrial park in April 2003.
Currently seeking Project Engineer, Technical Engineer, Quality assurance assistant.

These premises are large enough for substantial manufacturing output.
Probably enough to take company through to stage where additional manfacturing output could be financed by borrowings, as profit margin on extra sales once basic overheads have been paid should be very attractive.

Have a look at their website www.oxford-biosensors.co.uk

Unless you have reasons to the contrary, I still think that Ox Bio could easily become worth £50M, so that ARL stake £5M or at least 5p/share "hidden" value.

[capt bligh] 26/11/2003 17:43

Thinking about the Oxford biosensors warrants on ARLS books at 0£. (These if exercised for 1m£ before 2005 would give arl 10% of the co.)_ However Oxford bio plan 2 rounds of fund raising before then so this % will be diluted ( by 50% at least I expect) Question is just how big a co is Oxford biosensors likely to become. Despite rather inept surfing I cannot find anything that does anything like as much their proposed gizmo, which is due to start extensive pre fda trials early next year is this not going to be a huge seller...any GPs out there?

[baggywrinkle] 26/11/2003 09:41

useful write up on citywire this morning.
summarises what we already know.

[sugarbeast] 25/11/2003 12:20

tom ...how long should I watch this space for ?




TOM2468 - 24 Nov'03 - 21:10 - 135 of 141


so are you buying?

I am im holding 125k of these now and will be hitting 200k tomorrow

watch this space

[baggywrinkle] 25/11/2003 09:27

SB: They have still 6.66M ECK according to the RNS, as well as XKO.
Good though it would be to have cash, I doubt we will see anything except share buy backs.
My hunch is that they are seeing a good flow of possible deals, and so want to ensure they cash in fair profits while they are there so as to use profits for further deals. Also improves P&L a/c.
You have an interesting point, though. How much more productive could 5 or 6 people become ?

[sugarbeast] 25/11/2003 08:40

it leaves them with 1 listed investment only.
they are effectively almost running as a cash shell.

does that imply that they are going to sell up and return cash to shareholders ?

I don't see much point in having 5 or 6 staff sitting there looking after a smallish holding in XKO,several million pounds and some unlisted investments.

[baggywrinkle] 25/11/2003 08:37

Reckon that ARL have booked a profit of £0.8M over value of ECK shares in 30/9/03 accounts (sale price 17p - cost est. 6p = 11p x 7.25M)

This is 1.2p per share (but already included in my above figs)

Comforting to have cash instead of paper !

[tom2468] 25/11/2003 07:57

why?

any small buying on this and it moves

[sugarbeast] 24/11/2003 21:35

I am not sure that advertising your intentions in an illiquid stock which is read by both of the mm's is a great idea,ahead of any move you wish to make.

[tom2468] 24/11/2003 21:10

so are you buying?

I am im holding 125k of these now and will be hitting 200k tomorrow

watch this space