Assura Share Discussion Threads

[justiceforthemany] 19/11/2024 14:56

Time will tell.

[alotto] 18/11/2024 18:29

Will that have a direct impact on valuation?

[justiceforthemany] 18/11/2024 17:27

JSE listing 48hrs away

[dandigirl] 16/11/2024 07:59

Positive points: * Assura PLC (ARSSF) achieved a significant milestone with the acquisition of a 500 million portfolio of private hospitals, enhancing its market position. * The company reported an 8% growth in net rental income and a 4% increase in earnings, indicating strong financial performance. * Assura PLC (ARSSF) successfully completed the first stage of its disposal program, selling 12 assets for 25 million at book value, which aids in optimizing its portfolio. * The acquisition of private hospitals is expected to provide long-term secure and growing income through index-linked reviews, supporting a progressive dividend policy. * Assura PLC (ARSSF) has diversified its revenue streams, with private hospitals now comprising 25% of its rent roll, reducing reliance on a single market.

[american idiot] 15/11/2024 21:22

Dandigirl,

I go purely on the financials....which are Fact...


A diversified healthcare REIT delivering strong and growing cash flows

· Passing rent roll increased 19% to £179.1 million (March 2024: £150.6 million) with WAULT of 13.1 years (March 2024: 10.8 years)

· Net rental income up 8% to £76.7 million (September 2023: £70.8 million)

· Investment property value £3.1 billion (March 2024: £2.7 billion); valuation uplift of £25.4 million in half year

· Net Initial Yield 5.20% (March 2024: 5.17%)

· EPRA earnings up 4% to £52.7 million (September 2023: £50.8 million); EPRA EPS of 1.7p (September 2023: 1.7p)

· IFRS profit before tax £77.1 million (September 2023: loss of £17.8 million) and EPS 2.5p (September 2023: (0.6)p)

· Increase in EPRA NTA to 49.4p (March 2024: 49.3p); valuation gain in the period more than offset the dilution from shares issued

· 2.4% increase in the quarterly dividend to 0.84 pence per share (3.36 pence on an annual basis) with effect from the July 2024 payment

.................

At 39.32p (Current SP) you are buying assets of 49.4p and a 8.6% divi thrown in to boot.

Seriously, what is not to like ?

(Perhaps one slight negative is the fact that some of their debt is due for re-financing in 2025/2026. (£70m in Oct 2025 & then the £266m Barclays term loan in Aug 2026 + £200m RCF in Oct 26 (of which £85m is drawn at 30 Sept 2024)

The majority of debt are bonds which are due 2028, 2030 and 2033. (£300m each)

No problems at all here going forward for the next few years at least...

[spectoacc] 15/11/2024 20:38

Taking this off my watchlist, good luck holders.

[alotto] 15/11/2024 18:12

Dandigirl 30% increase in rents to raise equity!? Who wrote this article, are they mad!?

uncertainty in the timing of rental growth from open market review - that's the same for any REIT

The company has seen a dilution in its NTA due to the issuance of shares, impacting shareholder value - to what extent?

* Assura PLC (ARSSF) faces a high loan-to-value ratio of 49%, although efforts are underway to reduce it to below 45% within 18 to 24 months. - loans are unsecured, the importance is the cost of financing relative to cashflow.

The NHS challenges have resulted in a 376 million pipeline of 33 GP-led schemes being put on hold, affecting potential growth in this segment. - what schemes? No new surgeries and hospitals!? Do they intend to default on rents?

[red ninja] 15/11/2024 17:10

Did Guru focus have any positive points and you are just listing the negative ones ?

[dandigirl] 15/11/2024 16:35

Negative points from guru focus.

Wow!

* The NHS challenges have resulted in a 376 million pipeline of 33 GP-led schemes being put on hold, affecting potential growth in this segment.

* Assura PLC (ARSSF) faces a high loan-to-value ratio of 49%, although efforts are underway to reduce it to below 45% within 18 to 24 months.

* The company has seen a dilution in its NTA due to the issuance of shares, impacting shareholder value.

* There is uncertainty in the timing of rental growth from open market reviews, which could affect future income projections.

* Assura PLC (ARSSF) is experiencing cost pressures in its development pipeline, requiring a 30% increase in rents to make current projects viable.

Stonking buy? Really? A rethink is in order!

[alotto] 15/11/2024 13:00

How many people will take the scrip shares in lieu of dividend though?
It's quite a strange option that give shareholders consider the soft share price

[scbscb] 15/11/2024 12:38

What puts be off this is that they keep issuing scrip shares in lieu of dividends at well below NAV diluting the value of all the previously issued shares. And what is the point of wasting time and money on a JSE listing a minor market in a submerging country. Is it so the directors can boost their air miles?
The report is full of pretty pictures but the performance is poor.

[alotto] 15/11/2024 12:08

George sell asap

[george stobart] 15/11/2024 11:22

we are going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of capitalism

[speedsgh] 15/11/2024 10:53

@dandigirl - "The share price started the year at 48.12. As I write it is 38.88, down nearly 10%."

Surely that is a fall of just under 20%?

[red ninja] 14/11/2024 16:53

Assura featured in an Investor's Champion (ie pay for Tip website) Income Portfolio makeover on the 11/10/24 as below (I've only posted the Assura bit) :-

Income Boosters: Oct ‘24 portfolio changes target 7% yield

Assura REIT (LON:AGR)
Market cap: £1.4bn

Starting price:43p

Dividend yeld:7.8%

Assura is a specialist healthcare property REIT, with a portfolio of more than 600 properties. The group’s buildings include a wide range of NHS facilities and private hospitals in the UK and also operates in Ireland.

This REIT benefits from long, index-linked leases and high-quality tenants, providing strong visibility on future cash flows. Financing costs are still relatively low, and we think the dividend will remain safe.

[dandigirl] 14/11/2024 16:41

Thank you for the NTA figure. Maybe a stonking buy for those new to the share and content for it to hover around 40p, maybe, and receive the income. We have a lot already showing a substantial loss and few signs that there will any meaningful share price gains anytime soon. The management have touted their deals as significant events. For them, probably a reason to seek increased remuneration. For shareholders they are not. The share price started the year at 48.12. As I write it is 38.88, down nearly 10%. I see further falls as the budget measures start to bite.

[justiceforthemany] 14/11/2024 14:06

Yet another large director buy.

[this_is_me] 14/11/2024 13:21

Continues to be a long term, collect the large dividend, stock.

[alotto] 14/11/2024 10:28

SpectoAcc "Assura 1H Net Rental Income Misses Estimates".

"In the first half, we completed 129 rent reviews generating an 8.2% uplift on the rent reviewed (3% on an annual equivalent basis), seven lease re-gears, and invested in seven capital projects. Collectively these added £1.7 million to our rent roll, offering attractive growth for modest capital outlay. "

3% rent increase is not extraordinary but a fair figure and in line with inflation. I am not sure how much more Bloomberg wants Assura to charge our health service providers.

[alotto] 14/11/2024 10:04

How important is NTA outside a context of asset disposal?
I may be wrong but I don't see an issue in asset valuation as increased or decreased valuation has no impact on cash flow.
The asset is not used as collateral as debt is unsecured.

[american idiot] 14/11/2024 10:00

A net asset value of 49.5p v share price of 38.4p and dividend yield of 8.8% (At current SP)

What is not to like ?

Todays interims were excellent in many ways.

This is a stonking BUY at current levels.

[dandigirl] 14/11/2024 09:10

Sorry, but NTA is one of the most important figures.Meaningful increases in divi would help, too. I hope increased rental income will bring about a larger increase in divi next year.Having made a lot of the 2 deals, it appears not much has changed. That said, I see no reason to sell just now.

[spectoacc] 14/11/2024 08:23

@alotto - this was Bloomberg's take:

"Assura 1H Net Rental Income Misses Estimates"

[alotto] 14/11/2024 08:21

NTA is mostly linked to valuation and heavily influenced by interest rates.
Although it may may have a marginal impact on cashflow from asset disposal (which is negligible compared to the total asset under management) it did not affect rental income, which is the most important metric for shareholders. Actually rental income had a nice uplift. If this TU didn't move the needle, I don't know what will.

[dandigirl] 14/11/2024 07:52

Underwhelming interims. 2 strategically important transactions in the second quarter but couldn't help but notice NTA of 49.3p in 3/24 and 49.4p in 6/24. Hardly dial moving.