Assura Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 27/5/2023 15:21

Fairly solid results with a 4.7% yield on properties and their 41% LTV debt fixed at 2.3%. A 6.7% dividend yield looks attractive, but I guess there is some waryness given the debt, until rates peak. Growth on hold. I'm still holding. It begs the question, who is going to build the new GP surgeries, over the next year or two. Assura and PHP are capital constrained as with most listed investment vehicles. They can't really get a fundraising away until interest rate starts falling and the shares get back to a premium. With most capital intensive "infrastructure companies" in the same position and "recycling capital" there is surely a big slow-down on the way re. new build projects. There is just no real point building anything if the financing cost is north of 5%.

[dandigirl] 26/5/2023 13:28

NAV is pretty much a function of interest rates.

When/if interest rates fall, NAVs should recover.

In the meantime, let's enjoy the divis.

[jonwig] 25/5/2023 19:41

I'm wondering here just how important "NAV" is (as opposed to secure inflation-linked rents). After all, it hasn't alternative use, and will be permanently occupied as a health centre until demolished, leaving a low residual value.

NAV, as recorded in speed's post above is surely constructed from gilt yields. For many years, the share price stood at a huge premium. There can't be many safer income streams.

[dandigirl] 25/5/2023 18:44

To be expected that NAV would fall. Topped up. Consider the business sound.

[speedsgh] 25/5/2023 14:30

NAV (EPRA NTA) per share:

53.6p as at 31/3/23 EPRA NTA
60.2p as at 30/9/22 EPRA NTA
60.7p as at 31/3/22 EPRA NTA
58.4p as at 30/9/21 EPRA NTA
57.2p as at 31/3/21 EPRA NTA
56.2p as at 30/9/20 EPRA NTA
53.9p as at 31/3/20
53.5p as at 30/9/19
53.3p as at 31/3/19
53.3p as at 30/9/18
52.4p as at 31/3/18
53.1p as at 30/9/17
49.3p as at 31/3/17
47.2p as at 30/9/16
45.8p as at 31/3/16
46.4p as at 30/9/15
44.0p as at 31/3/15

[speedsgh] 25/5/2023 14:28

~ EPRA NTA per share as at 31/3/23 down 12% to 53.6p (31/3/22: 60.7p)
~ Proposed 5% increase in quarterly dividend to 0.82p (3.28p on annual basis)
~ Weighted average interest rate unchanged at 2.30%
~ Weighted average debt maturity of 7 years, no refinancing on drawn debt due until October 2025. Over 50% of drawn debt matures beyond 2030.
~ Net debt £1,135m on fully unsecured basis; LTV 41% (31/3/23: net debt £1,006m; LTV 36%)

Assura Full Year Results 2023 - HTTPS://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AGR/assura-full-year-results-2023/15967472

[zeppo] 23/5/2023 07:50

The April dividend for 2023/24 of 0.78 pence per share was paid on 12 April 2023 and the July dividend for 2023/24 of 0.82 pence per share is currently planned to be paid on 12 July 2023 with a record date of 8 June 2023.

[american idiot] 15/3/2023 11:47

SP a lot stronger recently...Probably reflecting the fact that interest rate rise expectations are falling. (2, 5 & 10 YR IRS all falling a little)

Good news for Assura.

[jonwig] 02/3/2023 13:57

I suppose the 7mn is the number of patients on a surgery's roll, rather than the number who it's estimated will have been treated.

[petersinthemarket] 02/3/2023 12:16

Something a little odd in the 2 March Notice of Dividend.

'' .... caring for more than 600 primary healthcare buildings, from which almost seven million patients are served.''

'' ....aiming for six million people to have benefitted from improvements to and through its healthcare buildings by 2026.''

Not feeling too bright this morning - I must be missing something - what about the missing million?

[justiceforthemany] 10/2/2023 15:56

Close to a 5 year low. A couple of shorters with half percent each no doubt manipulating the action.
Bought in.

[petersinthemarket] 01/2/2023 12:23

thanks speed

[speedsgh] 31/1/2023 12:52

Share tip: Assura, the fallen angel that can soar again - HTTPS://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/share-tip-assura-the-fallen-angel-that-can-soar-again-9lwpc60mj

Small wasn’t beautiful for parts of the stock market in 2022: broker Numis’s small-cap index lost almost 20 per cent last year. The tiddlers on its list were joined by 45 firms that shrank enough to slip down from larger categories — “fallen angels”, in Numis’s words. Investors had backed away amid fears about the durability of profits and dividends.

Assura, the GP surgery landlord, was one of those fallers. The FTSE 250 investment trust — which buys, builds and manages community healthcare buildings — has been a victim of rising interest rates. Its shares fell a fifth in 2022, giving a £1.6 billion market cap, and are now changing hands at 55.5p.

And aside from the firm’s own fortunes, it might seem a questionable time to invest in the NHS (which underpins 81 per cent of Assura’s income) given the anger among healthcare staff. But the other spin, as chief executive Jonathan Murphy puts it, is that the pressures on the NHS [mean] “the need to invest in high-quality primary care to help alleviate this has never been greater.”

In this light, Assura still seems a good long-term bet — indeed, the NHS’s capital guidance plan for 2022-25 includes £100 million for investment in primary care estates plus IT. The Cheshire-based firm has a portfolio of 607 properties valued at £2.7 billion, and the GPs and other care providers who lease properties from it pay annualised rent worth some £141 million. Its balance sheet shows cash and undrawn debt facilities of £255 million, and net debt of £1.1 billion (all of which is fully hedged).

The firm is conservatively run — at the end of last year, Murphy said it would “proceed cautiously with deploying capital” in the short term. Although demand for healthcare won’t diminish in a downturn, rising costs and government spending cuts are a concern, and so it trimmed its M&A spending plans.

Assura’s focus on primary healthcare means it is more resilient than other property stocks, and NHS trends look positive for investments in GP surgeries and pharmacies, where patients can be treated more cheaply than in hospitals. In the six months to September 2022, Assura’s net rental income rose by 15 per cent to £70 million, although it reported a £19 million valuation loss, mostly due to the gilts market. Its total property return fell to 1.8 per cent for the six months, down from 3.5 per cent in 2021.

This investment might require patience, but the price-to-earnings ratio, which has hovered in the mid-20s for the past five years, is now 18. Long-term patient trends, and the likely political direction, make Assura a buy.

[petersinthemarket] 31/1/2023 10:08

Times article is behind a pay wall - can you copy it here

[cyfran101] 30/1/2023 22:02

Share Tip in Sunday Times this weekend: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/share-tip-assura-the-fallen-angel-that-can-soar-again-9lwpc60mj

[dandigirl] 16/1/2023 11:25

Just loved the wording "an outward movement"! What chump came up with that?

Net initial yield 4.86% at December 2022, an outward movement of 34 basis points since September 2022

A lot of words overall to hide a decline all round. Management should improve what they have rather than add any more.

[goliard] 16/1/2023 11:20

Maybe it will take a dividend cut for the market to agree with me or maybe it never will agree with me.

[jonwig] 16/1/2023 09:41

goliard - you could be right. Of course, if the shares trade below nav, an equity fundraising is off the cards. I don't know what the scope is for rent reviews.

(The share price looks prettyy resilient today - I was expecting a bigger fall.)

[goliard] 16/1/2023 09:14

I think debt and yield will be a big problem here. Debt is fine now, but as it comes up for refinancing they will either have much more expensive facilities (so lower profit) or have to tap shareholders for funds (not ideal). The yield looks likely to rise further as valuations decrease. I can't see any reason for trading above NAV and can see a good case for trading 20% below NAV. Not one for me unless or until it hits low 40's.

[jonwig] 16/1/2023 07:21

Trading statement (link in header) is, for me, a bit downbeat though they are careful not to paint too gloomy a picture.

The NAV shows a decline and the shares now trade at a small premium. The use of the term "disciplined" rather often makes for a bit of a downer.

On EPCs, 48% of properties are rated A or B. Workplace norms seem to be that below B creates some extra administrative hurdles. With 52% in that category, remediation could be expensive.

The debt position looks healthy.

[goliard] 15/12/2022 17:32

Agreed - the risk is significant with no real sight of opportunity for gain.

[jonwig] 15/12/2022 17:22

And no chance of capital gain or dividend increase. (Just saying.)

[goliard] 15/12/2022 16:54

I am a fan of AGR but it needs to be low to mid 40s to be investable now with interest rates where they are and where they seem to be going. No reason to accept the current yield when you can get almost as much in a relatively short term deposit account with little or even no risk of capital loss.

[cwa1] 01/12/2022 07:53

Notice of Dividend

Assura plc ("Assura" or "the Company"), the UK's leading primary care property investor and developer, today announces that the next quarterly interim dividend of 0.78 pence per share will be paid on 11 January 2023 to shareholders on the register on 9 December 2022 (the "Record Date"). The Ex-dividend Date will be 8 December 2022.

This interim dividend will be a normal dividend (non-PID). Please refer to Company's website HERE for more information