Assura Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 11/11/2024 08:19

Interims Thursday.

[lorse] 07/11/2024 21:56

SpectoAcc - Renewable ITs ? Investment trusts?

[alotto] 06/11/2024 17:34

Aasura keeps banging on about the affordability of its debt. £1.2 billions debt (correct me if I'm wrong) with cost of borrowing swelling to an additional 3% (I doubt that there will be more than 300 bps to add to the current rate when debt comes due), the added interest cost is about £35 millions, which I believe is paid from the gross earnings (correct me if I'm wrong). So there should be about £27 millions less for dividends (from net earnings). With a market cap of £1.2billios, Assura forks out £100millions for teh dividend. An increase in interest rate may affect the expendable capital for dividends by 25%. The dividend should be quite secure.

[spectoacc] 06/11/2024 16:58

You can get 4.5% on the 10 year, and more on other maturities, whereas here you've the real risk that when their debt falls due (not for ages, but fall due it will), the refinancing rate could be well beyond a level that leaves AGR viable for divis.

That, and opportunity cost. 8%+ at AGR, or eg 11.5%+ at NESF?

[alotto] 06/11/2024 16:54

Who in their right mind would buy a gov bond at 4.3% when you can get here 8% plus very likely capital appreciation? Something else is going on. Either a stampede or suspicion of something fundamentally wrong.
Debt generally makes me nervous but the assets, the almost certain rental income and the A- rating reassure me.
No idea how to read the share price. Probably a stampede.

[goliard] 06/11/2024 16:29

Dear me this share price performance is awful and I'm not even seeing it as a buying opportunity (which probably means it is a buying opportunity). Nothing really wrong with the company, but everything wrong with the gilt market and driving this down. Just wondering where it stops now.

[spectoacc] 05/11/2024 17:08

As someone else pointed out, Labour may be splashing the NHS cash, but for GP surgeries that may not even cover the extra employer NIC.

But the bigger thing with AGR (& PHP) is the debt level, and what rolling that debt in the future will do to the P&L. Assumptions on med-term interest rates have been changing.

Which isn't to say I might not be tempted back into AGR eventually, but would point out there's also a lot else looking good value atm (all the renewable ITs for starters).

[alotto] 05/11/2024 17:04

The price hasn't been this low in over 10 years. Is this a prelude to a bad trading update? We shall see

[justiceforthemany] 05/11/2024 17:02

Yield up to 8.6%
Rate cuts from Fed and BoE this week.

[alter ego] 02/11/2024 11:40

I only know what they claimed, why don't you ask AGR?

[alotto] 02/11/2024 09:54

Can't SA investors invest in Assura being listed in the UK? And why SA specifically, why not Canadians or Argentinians for that matter?

[alter ego] 01/11/2024 13:41

they claimed that SA investors would be keen to invest in AGR.

[alotto] 01/11/2024 13:29

So they are doing the needful to promote a higher share price.
I'm not sure about the reasons for a South African dual listing though.

[gbh2] 01/11/2024 13:17

The qtr dividend looks pretty "compelling" to me, IF it can be maintained, better still, improved .

[alotto] 01/11/2024 13:04

How do the CEO and CFO move the share price though. They don't seem to be putting compelling propositions to the investors judging by the market valuation.

[justiceforthemany] 01/11/2024 12:54

UK gilt yields falling sharply.

[justiceforthemany] 01/11/2024 12:39

Well the CEO and CFO alone hold more than 4 MILLION shares between them. Plenty of incentive to get the share price motoring back to 60-70p.

[alotto] 01/11/2024 08:44

Why the listing in South Africa?
Is the UK market trashing them to the point they cannot raise any equity anymore?

[gbh2] 01/11/2024 08:22

Couple of weeks to results the share price should be holding or climbing.

[george stobart] 31/10/2024 13:27

Rate cuts are negative when you have a radical communist chancellor destroying the equity and gilt markets

[justiceforthemany] 31/10/2024 13:18

Still >80% chance of a rate cut next week.

[george stobart] 28/10/2024 09:44

They are just copycatting what their peer PHP LN did a year ago and added some liquidity at the margin

[rik shaw] 28/10/2024 09:31

You could look it up if you like based on the market cap:

[this_is_me] 28/10/2024 08:43

How much does it cost them to get a listing there?