Assura Share Discussion Threads

[badtime] 22/2/2024 10:22

Third time lucky?

[george stobart] 21/2/2024 22:08

Takeover bid by a life insurance fund. 7am RNS incoming

[alotto] 21/2/2024 22:01

Cwa1 what does that imply?

[cwa1] 21/2/2024 18:05

Decent volumes in Assura today...

[spectoacc] 21/2/2024 07:02

It's a brave man/woman who predicts rates in 2030 :)

But predicting a year ahead seems more certain, and it's "higher for longer". Inflation will come right down, but then start to go back up again due to avg wage rises.

That's before anything geopolitical.

@goliard - yes, too true - hence "...Is an 8% yield enough". There's so much cheap/getting cheaper, eg SEIT or GSF, to give examples on growing 10% yield.

[alotto] 20/2/2024 19:06

Assura has secured most of it's borrowing at a fixed rate till 2030 (please correct me if I'm wrong). It is very low risk for the NHS to default on rent and Assura to default on loans at least for the next full 5 years.
My bet is rates will come down steadly, by 2030 rates will be higher than 2020 but lower than today. With interest rates coming down, equity markets will breath some fresh cash.

[goliard] 20/2/2024 18:50

I agree. Assura type companies are not the cause of the commercial property issues. However, if yields on good quality commercial increase due to overall sector problems then the yield here won't seem as attractive even if it is high. I can't see Assura developing many properties in the next few years as the NHS won't pay the rents that are now required. I wonder if they really need the overhead of a development team now, so they could also cut some costs. In addition rents should actually rise. There is huge risk if we see massive defaults in the commercial property loan sector. A building in Canary Wharf recently sold for 60% less than it sold for just a few years ago after the owner defaulted on their loan. Refinancing property loans is going to be a nightmare and possibly unaffordable.

[spectoacc] 20/2/2024 16:46

AGR ought to be comm prop immune surely. The total debt level's a concern, but the only red flag for me is something Labour, and the mood music is they won't rock the boat.

One or two 0.25% rate cuts this year IMO, but bear in mind there's still votes for a rise from two MPC members. The market's been way out in expecting early cuts.

So question is - is an 8% yield enough, considering everything else that's out there? I think it may be, with AGR's relative safety. But there's a lot of choice atm.

[goliard] 20/2/2024 16:40

Everything still points to interest rates coming down this year which should mean a decent price rise for AGR. However it feels like the general commercial property sector malaise is weighing down the price. Hard to know how it plays out. Part of me wants a drop below 40 to buy more shares that will hopefully look cheap with hindsight but part of me wants to see the price rise as I am fairly heavily invested already with my average around the current price. I don't want a bid, just a recovery. A few interest rate drops and this should be 50p. Add in a near 8% yield and the return over 12 months could be amazing.... Unless there really is a commercial property bloodbath.

[spectoacc] 20/2/2024 16:22

Missed how far this had fallen, watching to buy back in again around 40p.

[petersinthemarket] 20/2/2024 16:18

There was a rejected T/O attempt of AGR by MedicX in 2013 but I'm not aware of anything more recent.

[hardupfedup] 11/2/2024 12:36

must be half term....

[alotto] 11/2/2024 10:48

Trust, damn autocorrect!

[alotto] 11/2/2024 10:47

Ahahah definitely tust lol

[cwa1] 11/2/2024 10:36

I'm rather hoping you mean "trust me bro"...

[alotto] 11/2/2024 09:11

Ah this is a 'Thrust me bro' moment. Gotcha.

[george stobbart] 11/2/2024 08:56

My ex girlfriends uncle told me who works for big city office and knows stuff unlike you plebs

[alotto] 11/2/2024 08:23

I didn't read about any take over. Do you have a link to share?

[george stobbart] 11/2/2024 08:18

Is the chattered takeover a done deal this week at 70p?

[badtime] 19/1/2024 19:05

I think it's hard enough looking a year ahead let alone six ...I just take comfort from the length of time

[alotto] 19/1/2024 15:09

whats the chances for interest rates to stay elevated till or after 2030?

[bscuit] 19/1/2024 12:30

Wrong thread

[wapping67] 10/1/2024 08:04

Pretty steady statement and plenty of real estate businesses will be envious of the following which leaves the company on a very stable footing

· Weighted average interest rate unchanged at 2.30% (September 2023: 2.30%); all drawn debt on fixed rate basis

· Weighted average debt maturity of 6.25 years, no refinancing on drawn debt due until October 2025. Over 50% of drawn debt matures beyond 2030, with our longest maturity debt at our lowest rates

With rates having peaked and heading down this year Assura could have a decent year

[cwa1] 10/1/2024 07:54

Trading update:-



Trading Update

For the third quarter ending 31 December 2023



Assura plc ("Assura"), the leading primary care property investor and developer, today announces its Trading Update for the third quarter to 31 December 2023.



Jonathan Murphy, CEO, said:

"Assura has delivered another quarter of disciplined activity to further enhance our growing portfolio, with our market-leading position and strong balance sheet seeing us well-placed for the long-term.

"Alongside completing two asset enhancement projects in the period, we continued to leverage our proven track record and market expertise to respond to distinct challenges and provide quality capacity for services in a community setting. We see opportunities to respond to this healthcare challenge by developing for private providers, working directly with NHS Trusts and mental health services as well as bringing our expertise to the Irish market.

"We completed a state-of-the-art cancer treatment centre in Guildford which will provide highly advanced oncology treatments to both NHS and private patients; and moved on site to double the size of our community care centre in Castlebar, Ireland - a market for which we have three schemes in our immediate development pipeline.

"The need for high-quality, sustainable healthcare buildings in a community setting is unabated, and Assura remains best-placed to meet the demands of an ageing population and growing pressures on the health system at a time when one-third of the UK's current GP estate is in need of replacement."



Disciplined investment activity further enhancing our attractive and resilient portfolio

· Portfolio of 612 properties across the UK and Ireland with an annualised rent roll of £148.6 million

· Successful completion of £30 million state-of-the-art cancer care facility in Guildford, increasing capacity for treatment of NHS and private patients in the area

· Moved on site with significant development project in Castlebar, Ireland doubling the size of the facility to create an Enhanced Community Care Centre as well as substantially improving sustainability performance targeting operational energy usage intensity of 55 kWh/m2

· Disposed of one property for £1.2 million

· Completed two asset enhancement capital projects (total spend £4.9 million), including large extension project at Wantage Health Centre (increasing capacity, refurbishing the existing space and upgrading the building to EPC B)

· 46 rent reviews settled in the quarter, covering £3.8 million of existing rent and generating an uplift of £0.6 million

· EPC improvement programme continues: 17 properties upgraded to EPC B in the quarter, 58% of portfolio now at EPC B or better



Pipeline of emerging opportunities for strategic expansion and further growth

· Currently on site with nine developments; these have a remaining spend over the next 18 months of £36 million of a total cost of £91 million (September 2023: 10 on site, £114 million total cost)

· Immediate development pipeline of four schemes (UK: one, Ireland: three), where we would normally expect to be on site within 12 months; total cost of £28 million (September 2023: four, £25 million). We continue to experience delays on pipeline schemes in the UK as we negotiate to ensure rents appropriately reflect the current cost of construction.

· On site with five asset enhancement capital projects (total spend of £2.7 million over the next 12 months); pipeline of 17 asset enhancement capital projects (projected spend £10.6 million) over the next two years

· 43 lease re-gears covering £8.1 million of existing rent roll in the current pipeline



Robust financial position and strong balance sheet

· A- (stable outlook) credit rating from Fitch Ratings affirmed in January 2024

· Weighted average interest rate unchanged at 2.30% (September 2023: 2.30%); all drawn debt on fixed rate basis

· Weighted average debt maturity of 6.25 years, no refinancing on drawn debt due until October 2025. Over 50% of drawn debt matures beyond 2030, with our longest maturity debt at our lowest rates

· Revolving credit facility refinanced as previously announced, increasing to £200 million, reducing the overall cost and adding sustainability-linked KPIs

· Net debt of £1,214 million on a fully unsecured basis with cash and undrawn facilities of £238 million