Assura Share Discussion Threads

[goliard] 14/12/2023 16:59

One thing that annoys me here is the scrip dividend. In thoery you can choose to receive shares for the value of the dividend and the scrip price is now set at 43.94p. You then have until 28 December to make the choice, so if the share prices rises, you can choose shares instead of cash which is what I would like to do as it is an easy profit and relatively low risk.

However, you can only use the scrip dividend if you are an institution or have your own CREST account, or if you have old fashioned share certificates. I cannot do that with my holding as it is with Interactive Investor and AJ Bell.

I do wish they would sort that out or has anyone else found a way to do it? I tried and failed.

EDIT 8 January 2024 - so about 25% of shares elected for the scrip and take a significant % increase in value of their dividend that way. No wonder institutions like this as their yield is significantly increased as the expense of those who cannot or do not elect to have the scrip alternative.

[jonwig] 17/11/2023 08:02

Presentation is here:

[perfect choice] 17/11/2023 07:54

Thanks, they just need to manage it and not get out of hand, 50% tops I would say, don't want to get anywhere near covenants.

Equity raise too early in current market so definitely not preferred.

Ramsey Health (Private health: Completion of newly built state-of-the-art day case hospital for Ramsay Health Care UK in Kettering stated in RNS) yes sounds a too good an opportunity to miss for AGR so worth the raise on LTV if need debt to fully/part fund work.

Thanks jonwig for the additional feedback.

[jonwig] 17/11/2023 06:58

Yes, they did refer to LTV, and even 50% would be well within covenants of 60/65%. Equity raise was mentioned, but I'd have though that would be a tough one.

They have the opportunity to so more work for Ramsay Health (private sector but a NHS outsource) which would be too good to miss, they say.

[perfect choice] 16/11/2023 21:48

Good to hear, like to think of AGR as an unexciting but steady and secure investment. Any comment made at all on LTV strategy, as only area I would like to see greater visibility of plans.

RNS states "Our LTV ratio currently stands at 44% and will increase in the short term as we utilise cash to fund the pipeline of development and asset enhancement opportunities. We generally operate with an LTV in and around 40%, and our policy allows us to reach the range of 40%-50% should the need arise.". So up from 41% and while OK for now, wouldn't want it to get much higher despite what was stated.

Just wondering if anything stated in the presentation, or just wasn't a subject needing discussion today?

[jonwig] 16/11/2023 14:21

The presentation this morning was excellent. Few UK opportunities, but interesting ones in Ireland.

[speedsgh] 16/11/2023 12:09

From today's interims...



Assura outlook

The market to expand our portfolio through acquisition in the UK has been muted over the months, since the bond market reaction to the mini-budget in September 2022, and this remains the case today. Looking ahead we would expect the majority of our growth in the short-term to come from maximising the returns on our existing portfolio, focusing on developments and asset enhancement opportunities as the areas in which we can generate most value-add.

We are on site with 10 developments, with a total cost of £114 million that will complete over the next 15 months. These have a remaining spend of £55 million and are fully funded from available cash.

The recent challenges in the construction industry, with significant cost inflation and higher finance costs, continue to impact rent negotiations on pipeline schemes. Generally these negotiations remain slow, but we are starting to see positive movement in some locations where the NHS need for investment in new buildings is strongest. We only move on site when all aspects of a scheme (NHS approval, fixed price construction contract, agreement for lease in place) are agreed in full.

We are seeing progress in our areas of strategic expansion - working directly with NHS Trusts, private providers and stakeholders in Ireland. Each of these areas are closely aligned with our existing portfolio, being buildings that deliver health services in a community setting - aiming to relieve some of the pressure on the NHS system - with a strong underlying occupier covenant.

Our on-site developments include four schemes directly with NHS Trusts (Shirley, Fareham, Cramlington and Bury St Edmunds), one with a private provider (Guildford) and also our first two forward funding projects in Ireland (Kilbeggan and Ballybay). Similarly, our immediate pipeline of four schemes (total estimated cost of £25 million) contains three schemes in Ireland, building on the recent successes we have had in these areas becoming meaningful contributors to our portfolio and cash flow stream.

Having completed five asset enhancement projects (£3.3 million) in the period, we are on site with seven more (total spend £6.9 million). The nature of each of these projects is different - for example, a significant extension and refurbishment of the existing area at Wantage, a sustainability-linked improvement alongside a lease regear at Doctors Lane in Darlington, and a sustainability linked upgrade in Banbury (conversion to air source heat pump) - but crucially responds to the needs of the customer and patients at that particular location. Delivering opportunities such as these helps us serve our customers best, as well as driving long-term returns from the assets in our portfolio.

[american idiot] 16/11/2023 10:08

Assura PLC forms bullish "Head and Shoulders Bottom" chart pattern
Nov 14, 2023

Trading Central has detected a "Head and Shoulders Bottom" chart pattern formed on Assura PLC (AGR:LSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of 47.10 to the range of 52.00 - 53.25. The pattern formed over 34 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Tells Me: The price seems to have reached the end of a period of "accumulation" at the bottom of a major downtrend; the break up through resistance signals a reversal to a new uptrend.

The Head and Shoulders Bottom is created by three successive declines in the price following a significant downtrend. The lowest low (head) is in the middle, flanked by two higher lows (shoulders) at roughly the same level. Volume is highest as the price makes the first two declines, then diminishes through the right shoulder. Finally volume surges as the price closes above the neckline (drawn between the two highs) to confirm the reversal.

This bullish pattern can be seen on the following chart and was detected by Trading Central proprietary pattern recognition technology.

[jonwig] 16/11/2023 08:11

HY results:



No surprises, I think. 5% dividend increase to 0.82p per quarter. Fully covered and 10th consecutive year of increase. Yield over 7% is a bit ridiculous.

[goliard] 20/10/2023 08:23

So I guess I am waiting for 35p before buying anymore. 39p does seem cheap though.

[catch007] 15/10/2023 10:24

Following a very positive trading update and a recent increase in dividend and yield this looks way oversold at present imho.

[jonwig] 09/10/2023 16:14

graham - exactly ... AGR isn't the only crazy valuation!

[grahamite2] 09/10/2023 12:51

Thanks jonwig. If the update hasn't helped the sp, at least it gives confidence to hold and just bank the dividends.

[8w] 09/10/2023 12:27

No positive response to trading update. Higher for longer and geopolitics hold sway

[jonwig] 09/10/2023 07:11

Excellent trading update:



... and refinancing on better terms. With a yield almost 8%, the share price can take care of itself.

[badtime] 04/10/2023 16:35

Waiting to see if 40p holds before adding

[catch007] 29/9/2023 11:25

I added another small tranche today circa 42.25 (not as smart as Spectro!) to average down my holding. Yield 7.74% and very sound well run company imho.

[jonwig] 29/9/2023 09:42

Spec: at March 31 -

Strong and sustainable financial position

· Weighted average interest rate unchanged at 2.30% (March 2022: 2.30%); all drawn debt on fixed rate basis

· Weighted average debt maturity of 7 years, no refinancing on drawn debt due until October 2025. Over 50% of drawn debt matures beyond 2030, with our longest maturity debt at our lowest rates

· Cash and undrawn facilities of £243 million

· Net debt of £1,135 million on a fully unsecured basis; LTV 41%, net debt/EBITDA ratio of 9.1x

· A- (stable outlook) rating from Fitch Ratings Ltd reaffirmed in January 2023
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Our longest-dated debt, being our Social and Sustainability Bonds representing approximately 50% of our outstanding debt, also have the lowest rates, at 1.5% and 1.625% respectively.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
we have no significant refinancings due in the next five years

So the debt due in 2025 isn't "significant".
There can't be many companies with a debt profile and tenant security as good as this.

[essentialinvestor] 28/9/2023 23:59

Spec, the market wants to see some asset sales I reckon.

[spectoacc] 28/9/2023 08:11

Breaking down in a way PHP aren't. What's the debt schedule like at AGR? Getting at least tempted down here.

Edit - in at 41.93p, good luck holders. LTV is massive but rent roll seems assured (no pun intended).

[goliard] 28/9/2023 08:05

Timed that purchase perfectly as normal

[goliard] 06/9/2023 19:03

I'm now the proud owner of quite a lot of these as we seem to be looking at close to top on interest rates.

[goliard] 19/7/2023 08:30

Grahamite2 must be smiling

[goliard] 19/7/2023 08:11

Just good inflation figures unfortunately but that is a big response.