Assura Share Discussion Threads

[speedsgh] 11/10/2022 14:51

Quilter have appeared on the share register with a 5%+ holding...

[steve3sandal] 05/10/2022 18:52

Beat me too it. They use EBIDA to Interest and it was 4.1x, 2021 3.9x.

I thought this was an interesting comparison in the 2022 Accounts.

The NIY on our assets continues to represent a substantial premium over both the 10 year and 15 year UK gilts which traded at 1.61% and 1.813% respectively (2021 0.845% and 1.22% respectively.

Obviously that premium is always warranted so with 10/15 year UK gilts at 4/4.25% what price Assura? If we had AGR on a 5% NIY before that’s a 3.3% premium on assets variously valued at 60-66p in the accounts. Keeping the premium gives say 7.5% requirement. DYOR but this suggests to me the new marginal buyers will not want to pay much more than 40p.

I thought today was a good update but Mr Market thought otherwise.

I like that they have lots of levers, new developments, sales off, rental regears, and £300m at 1.625% in 10 years time. But all this will be required to hold NAV above 60p as higher discount rates impact valuations. Debt/LTV leaves little wriggle room today and neither do I want them issuing more shares down here. I’m quite happy to have halved my holding a while ago but under water on the rest. I’m just going to hold these as the dividend is useful 4x a year. I’d top up at not much more than 40p too. I find it difficult to fathom this statement as I didn’t think we’d ever see 40something again.
But I’m finding myself making similar notes on my other prospective REITs too in this new paradigm.

[jonwig] 05/10/2022 17:46

Well:

To 31/03, gross rent £137m, debt interest £28m, so just about makes it!

And, today:
"All drawn facilities are unsecured with fixed interest (weighted average interest rate of 2.3%) and weighted average maturity 7.5 years"

[zeppo] 05/10/2022 17:33

One billion plus? Debt levels at the end of this report.

Are the interest payments well covered from rental income?

[jonwig] 05/10/2022 07:39

TRading update:



No skeletons in the cupboard. (Though I guess some doctors own a few.)

[american idiot] 30/9/2022 16:27

Post 1017 and 1018 clearly show that this is a ridiculously good buy at current levels.

[alter ego] 29/9/2022 15:57

excellent research - thank you speedsgh

[speedsgh] 29/9/2022 15:55

And this in the Trading Update released on 6/7/22...



· At 30 June 2022 net debt stood at £1,109 million with cash and undrawn facilities of £266 million

· All drawn facilities are unsecured with fixed interest (weighted average interest rate of 2.3%) and weighted average maturity 7.7 years

[speedsgh] 29/9/2022 15:53

Just checking out AGR's debt profile. LTV was 36% as at 31/3/22. From the 2022 Annual Report released in May...



The Group has the following bank facilities:

1. 10-year senior unsecured bond of £300 million at a fixed rate of 3% maturing July 2028, 10-year senior unsecured Social Bond of £300 million at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% maturing September 2030 and 12-year senior unsecured Sustainability Bond of £300 million at a fixed rate of 1.625% maturing June 2033. The Social and Sustainability Bonds were launched in accordance with Assura’s Social &
Sustainable Finance Frameworks respectively to be used for eligible investment in the acquisition, development and refurbishment of publicly accessible primary care and community healthcare centres. The bonds are subject to an interest cover requirement of at least 150%, maximum LTV of 65% and priority debt not exceeding 0.25:1. In accordance with pricing convention in the bond market, the coupon and quantum of the facility are set to round figures with the proceeds adjusted based on market rates on the day of pricing.

2. Five-year club revolving credit facility with Barclays, HSBC, NatWest and Santander for £125 million on an unsecured basis at an initial margin of 1.60% above SONIA subject to LTV and expiring in November 2024. The margin increases based on the LTV of the subsidiaries to which the facility relates, up to 1.95% where the LTV is in excess of 45%. The facility is subject to a historical interest cover requirement of at least 175% and maximum LTV of 60%. As at 31 March 2022, the facility was undrawn (2021: undrawn). The facility was £300 million as at March 2021 and during the year the decision was taken by the Company to reduce the facility to £125 million.

3. 10-year notes in the US private placement market for a total of £100 million. The notes are unsecured, have a fixed interest rate of 2.65% and were drawn on 13 October 2016. An additional £107 million of notes were issued in two series, £47 million in August 2019 and £60 million in October 2019, with maturities of 10 and 15 years respectively and a weighted average fixed interest rate of 2.30%. The facilities are subject to a historical interest cover requirement of at least 175%, maximum LTV of 60% and a weighted average lease length of seven years.

4. £150 million of unsecured privately placed notes in two tranches with maturities of eight and ten years drawn on 20 October 2017. The weighted average coupon is 3.04%. The facility is subject to a historical cost interest cover requirement of at least 175%, maximum LTV of 60% and a weighted average lease length of seven years.

[goliard] 27/9/2022 10:18

Problem is now we need low 40s to justify spread over bonds. Hmmmm.

[goliard] 27/9/2022 10:16

Got to the low 50s quicker than I expected.

[goliard] 23/9/2022 12:07

Only real difference is that AGR does their own developments so in theory can make extra profit there but in this climate they might not. Biggest problem is that they always quietly compared their yield to government bonds as NHS backed and that is not so attractive now as an argument for investment. Their yield needs to be about 3% higher than shorter dated bonds to be attractive. Would be good to know the volume of rentals linked to RPI as that might give a nice boost. Current price feels about right but could see 50p or less in a bad overall market. I'm waiting for now before adding if goes to low 50s.

[speedsgh] 23/9/2022 11:47

Starting to look tempting. Added to watchlist.

Any views on AGR v PHP? Both offering similar yield at present but AGR at 5.5% discount vs miniscule discount for PHP.

[jonwig] 20/9/2022 19:58

You can't compare the two: AGR's revenues are ultimately government-backed. IHR is care homes not clinics.

Most UK REITs are being hit today. Essentially fears that interest rate rises will be higher and faster. Rentals won't keep up. Also capital values are pretty irrelevant to AGR, but certainly not to IHR.

[dandigirl] 20/9/2022 19:39

Can't find a reason for the fall.

Why does AGR keep falling but IHR stay stable/strong?

Am perplexed.

[prokartace] 20/9/2022 11:17

5% yield here

[badtime] 20/9/2022 10:47

Bigger than normal fall ..hmmm

[cwa1] 01/9/2022 07:10

Assura plc ("Assura" or "the Company"), the UK's leading primary care property investor and developer, today announces that the next quarterly interim dividend of 0.78 pence per share will be paid on 12 October 2022 to shareholders on the register on 9 September 2022 (the "Record Date"). The Ex-dividend Date will be 8 September 2022.

[jonwig] 04/7/2022 09:39

Threat of GP shortages may be significant to the sector (AGR, PHP):



I think potentially significant for AGR, but not a reason for selling.

[cwa1] 31/5/2022 07:19

Notice of Dividend

Assura plc ("Assura" or "the Company"), the UK's leading primary care property investor and developer, today announces that the next quarterly interim dividend of 0.78 pence per share will be paid on 13 July 2022 to shareholders on the register on 10 June 2022 (the "Record Date"). The Ex-dividend Date will be 9 June 2022.

[steve3sandal] 25/5/2022 07:13

Thanks alter ego.

[alter ego] 24/5/2022 21:37

Steve3sandal, you ask why vote down a jonwig post. Some ime ago there was another poster called johnwig not jonwig. He angered some holders of a Woodford fund and they appear to have missed the spelling difference. I may be wrong but it how I explain it. The real jonwig provides very worthwhile posts.

[topvest] 24/5/2022 15:06

Good results. Assura seems to look after about 10% of the population now which is pretty impressive. The debt cost of 2.3% is super. I'd like to see a small equity raise to keep the LTV down.

[km18] 24/5/2022 12:07

Assura PLC is regarded as a real estate investment trust and primary care property investor and developer. As a result, the firm is specialised in portfolio management and property development, given that the group currently owns 625 modern primary healthcare properties. Given the diversified funding structure, the group optimised rental income to £126.5m from £112m in 2021, leading to a profit hike of 43.9%, from £108.3m to £155.8m. Considering the growing portfolio of properties, earnings per share and assets under management leapt significantly. This plausible market news was reflected on the firm’s P/FCF of 23.9x, signifying that the corporation is able fund its activities effectively. The sudden surge in profits and rental income was incorporated into the P/S of 15.71, which is above most peers in the REIT’s industry.



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