Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[palwing32] 02/2/2024 08:37

Thanks for your wedges Bracke. It would appear that the little wedge will meet the lower limit of the big wedge around the middle of March. Question is, will the little wedge punch through the lower edge of the big wedge?

[disc0dave46] 01/2/2024 20:01

It wasn't but there was some useful insights into current trading as well as a general theme that things will get better this year - well that's what I took from most of their feedback from various businesses, possibly I'm a glass half full chap?.

[bracke] 01/2/2024 18:49

disc0

I went back and looked at Box D. It didn't appear to be very optimistic.

I think I will stick to the charts

[disc0dave46] 01/2/2024 14:04

Mr bDid mean to add that the info detailed in "Box D - Agents update on business conditions" is particularly useful IMO. Most investing in the sectors covered will probably be up to speed with current conditions but some useful snippets on sector / industry specific forecasts, trends etc.The BoE do similar to the FED in terms of comms. They also have a press conference Q&A session - it's on the BBC news live link. Listened for about 2 minutes and none of the questions asked appeared to me to be answered - just like listening to politicians!.Agree are their forecasts worth anything?, probably not hence I prefer to take note of what actual businesses are saying (Box D).

[bracke] 01/2/2024 13:54

disc0

Thank you for the link which I skimmed.

When it comes to forecasting/predicting is the BoE very good at it? I think not. Not that they are alone in that respect. Remember 'transitory'. They would probably do best by saying nothing other than providing a brief up date when they announce the rate decision.

I watched the US decision last evening. The decision is announced and a written statement from the FED is provided. Then the press conference takes place with the press trying to get Powell to make a slip and Powell doing his best to avoid making one. Why have the press conference? It's a farce.

[disc0dave46] 01/2/2024 13:36

Good day Mr bGlad you're happy :)Thanks for the pretty chart. Talking of pretty charts just been glancing through the BoE report today - only the charts, or are they graphs?, most is over my head but do find it useful to see where they are predicting cost reductions / increases, unemployment, etc., to see if any sector specific data is of any interest. Anyway, for those struggling to sleep, or those who like pretty charts / graphs, the link is below:Https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2024/february-2024

[bracke] 01/2/2024 12:40

Good day disc0

"Are you a happy bunny now? lol"
===============================

Yes relatively. Neatness is restored.

Going forward a resolution to the Big Wedge will be required.

Doodling with the chart as I am wont to do I have added Little Wedge (violet) just for interest.

Mr Powell did it again and reverted back to his Hawk costume.


AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 21:14

No surprise really that Mr P has kept rates the same and put a downer on cuts in March - no surprise IMO and the usual hit to tech stocks. Time to buy more!.

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 18:59

(Sharecast News) - JPMorgan Cazenove reiterated its 'overweight' rating on Ashtead on Tuesday and hiked its price target to 6,800p from 5,600p as it argued the risk/reward is now attractive.The bank said the equipment rentals firm is currently a key debate stock in the sector, with the age old "cyclical or structural" debate reignited and likely to be tested over the coming 12 months.It said the profit warning in November has not helped calm fears despite being driven by multiple independent non-cycle related factors."However, our work in this note shows that a combination of structural changes and management actions has driven an evolution in the business model and created a more sustainable equity investment with still sector-plus growth rates, robust cash generation and strong balance sheet optionality meaning the business is no longer simply just a play on the cycle, something we believe the market does not appreciate currently, and which we explore further in this note."JPM said its work suggests the US non-residential outlook is not as bad as feared; mega projects will be a key driver of growth over the coming years; the group should continue to see significant market outperformance, supported by multiple drivers; and rental rates can remain resilient as catch-up replacement capex and disposals re-balance supply/demand."While the Q3 24 print will be soft (albeit well flagged), we forecast US and group organic rental revenue compound annual growth rate of 8% for FY25-26 with our upside scenario implying 13% growth," it said.JPM said that with the shares now trading at a 7% discount to their five-year average on EV/EBITA and at their widest discount to United Rentals - its closest peer - in five years, it sees the risk/ reward as attractive. It also reckons that as investors get more conviction on the earnings trajectory, shares should re-rate through the year, with scope for earnings upgrades too.

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 18:17

Mr bAre you a happy bunny now? lol

[bracke] 31/1/2024 16:01

Gap filled. OH THE SATISFACTION!

AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 15:34

Good afternoon Mr b

We will have to see, Baileys not exactly known for his success at making predictions!.

[bracke] 31/1/2024 15:22

disc0

OCD? Yes probably.

The Bank of England have been pouring cold water on the suggestion of cuts so even if Mr Powell continues with his Dovish stance it will be difficult for Mr Bailey to change his tune.

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 14:37

Good day Mr bThis creased me up, a TA guru with OCD!"merely in the add of neatness"Yep who knows with Mr P. Then our muppet (or should that be puppet) Bailey will simply follow whatever the FED say.March or June, place your bets!.

[bracke] 31/1/2024 13:52

Good day disc0

Mr Powell is a loose cannon. You will remember the last time he spoke was a 180 degree reversal of what he had said two weeks previously. What he will say this time is anyone's guess.


Meanwhile the share price is currently supported at the 61.8% FIB (5234). Perhaps Mr Powell will assist with a small drop to fill the gap at 5214......merely in the add of neatness.


AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 11:35

Microsoft and Alphabets results weren't received too positively....will Mr P take note I wonder?, probably not!.

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 10:47

Their update wasn't that bad IMO but not helped by the lack of guidance on how much below forecast they could be. As with AHT, milder weather was mentioned (reduced demand for heaters), and there was also a delay in new contracts being signed up (Rev now falling in their next FY).

[c_k] 31/1/2024 10:23

Interestingly Speedy FD bought 165500 in November at over 34p so couldn't have seen this profit warning coming.

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 10:18

Thanks Perfido.Saw it had tanked and meant to take a look at their RNS, but got distracted.....you've reminded me again so will take a look, thanks.

[perfido] 31/1/2024 08:00

In case you missed it: Profit warning hammers shares in Speedy Hire

SHARES in tool hire company Speedy Hire plunged after a nasty profit warning.

The company, which rents out everything from hammer drills and LED lights to generators, said it has been hit by a slowdown in trading, contract delays and a mild winter reducing demand for heating products. As a result, it expects profits to be lower than previously thought. Shares tumbled 18.1pc, or 6.5p, to 29.5p. (DM 31/01/24)
.

[mcunliffe1] 30/1/2024 15:16

Sound advice indeed.

[bracke] 30/1/2024 14:45

Good day disc0

You'r welcome.


Good day MC

My analysis doesn't change the share price only seeks to understand it.

I am a retail trader i.e. never worked in the finance business. I commenced my learning 20 years ago. Charting suits me as my employment has always been of an analytical type. I have made all the mistakes more than once. I think of myself as having gone through the mill as a beginner and become 'intermediate'.

I have tried various trading tactics and have eventually settled on one that generally works....for now. I have never stopped learning or being prepared to change the tactics in the light of market changes.

The market is an unforgiving place. Learning to survive is the first lesson. Thereafter be pleased with success and learn from mistakes.

[mcunliffe1] 30/1/2024 14:19

It's almost worth buying AHT again Mr b just to be favoured with your input.

I'm actually serious rather than sarcastic. I wish I had an inkling of your insight.

Have a pleasant day gents.

[disc0dave46] 30/1/2024 14:03

Good day Mr bThanks as ever for your pretty graph and guru input :)

[bracke] 30/1/2024 13:05

A gap up this morning to skip over the 61.8% FIB (5234) and resisted at the next FIB 78.6% (5378).

A lot of data from the US this week which will either take the share price up to the the Big Wedge upper trendline or drop it back to fill the gap.

AHT DAILY