Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 20/2/2019 10:25

Perhaps the 3rd qtr results on 5th March will provide the impetus to take the share price up a leg to £21

[smcni1968] 19/2/2019 21:19

gap up was on a Morgan Stanley buy recommendation

[bracke] 19/2/2019 10:31

And quickly filled.

Worth noting that the Daily SMA 200 is just above £21.00.

[fenners66] 19/2/2019 08:04

Opening gap up?

[ianwwwhite] 17/2/2019 18:10

Good day bracke

I sensed when I posted that there is a fundamental difference in my approach, and that of most 'traders' who post on ADVFN, and in my mind each approach is equally valid.

However we do share a common goal of making money and hopefully growing our capital.

As to the method, I do agree, to each his own.

[bracke] 17/2/2019 11:56

good day ian

When I make a purchase/trade and it goes 'wrong' I review it to ascertain if my analysis was wrong or if other events took over.

I purchased on 11 October following several days fall from £24.50 to £20 which had been a previous support zone. It had gapped down from the 10th and did move back up to close the gap at £20.50 it then dropped back to £20 (first warning). It then continued down to £17.68 before pulling back up to the previous gap close level before closing at £20. (second warning) It then continued down to £18.85 when it was supported for a period before going lower.

I failed to give the share price time to 'base' and 'jumed in' too early which would have been ok for a 50 point gap fill but not for a decent retrace back up.

Fortunately the share price has pulled back up and is now showing Mater a small profit but it was a poor initial purchase.

"My approach honed after a great number of years and crises is to stay fully invested in quality funds, not try to time the market and even add when the doom and gloom is at at its worst, remembering that most bear markets last only about two years or less."
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I appreciate this approach especially in you are invested for income. My approach is different in that I do not want to stay invested in companies that take a big hit during bear markets. I prefer to sell as near to the top as I can and buy later when they have fallen to low levels. IE Sell at the top of the cycle and buy at the bottom of the cycle.

Each to their own.

[ianwwwhite] 15/2/2019 16:52

bracke,

I don't think you should be too hard on yourself, after all I bought a few more myself at the same time (12/10/18 @ 1999.4p)!

What next? In your Mum's case I guess the strategy depends on her investment horizon, attitude to risk, and whether the funds are likely to be needed in the interim.

My approach honed after a great number of years and crises is to stay fully invested in quality funds, not try to time the market and even add when the doom and gloom is at at its worst, remembering that most bear markets last only about two years or less.

Mind you, at my stage it helps if 30% of your portfolio is invested in lower return, non volatile instruments, for example Cash ISAs, index linked NSCs etc.to provide ballast :-)

(Definitely no advice intended)

[bracke] 15/2/2019 16:24

ian

Not well done at all!

It was a poor buy when considering the drop after I bought them. Misjudged. Fortune has rescued the purchase. Not a good idea to rely on fortune.

What next? The market currently appears to be totally news driven, particularly China tariffs and the wall. Cracks are starting to appear in the global economy. How much longer have we got before the bull market ends, I don't know but we will get little warning.

[ianwwwhite] 15/2/2019 16:08

Good day bracke,

Thank you.

Now to more important matters, it looks like Mater's AHT investment has come good, (£20.13 break-even, I think you said)? Well done!

[bracke] 15/2/2019 15:29

Good day ian

"Can we give it a rest?"
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Yes. I do not intend to go over the for and against but if I see something new I will post it.

As to TA you either find it of use or you don't.

[riley109] 15/2/2019 11:25

Fenners,
As a long term holder like me I'll bet this has been one of your best investments.You will in the not too distant future be able to buy maybe 3 or 4 pints along with a bottle of single malt to chase them down.This Co has always adopted an aggressive stance to any company that stood in its way,either sell out to us or we'll put you out of business.I don't see any reason why this should have changed.The boards long term strategy will not have changed.The buyback was not a result of American trends or fundaymentals,it was to protect the company for the future from the marketplace it operates in.A plant dealer once said to me long ago we have enough money coming in to allow us to stop in bed all morning if we wanted but He never did.That's what this share has done for me but I never have either.

[fenners66] 14/2/2019 20:28

As we all agree there are a load of things that drive the share price.
I bought the shares a long time ago - long before the buyback so I can challenge its decision but it is neither a reason to buy the shares or a reason to sell.
The companies expected performance over the following years and tax legislation helps that decision.
I cannot however buy myself a pint with a buyback ; I can with a dividend and I do not have to exit stage left with a dividend.

Moreover paying down debt would reduce interest and create more profit so they can give me more earnings per share and more dividends next year when I might get 2 pints instead.

As for URI and AHT following the crowd in the US and announcing buybacks - well for some reason US funds like them - maybe they all have profitable positions that they want to exit without forcing the share price lower...

But what % of shares in AHT are held by US funds and what by UK after all we are listed here.

No one gets rich selling their shares in growing companies to a buy back - they get rich by keeping them and richer by earning and reinvesting dividends.....

[discodave4] 14/2/2019 19:35

Hi brackeDon't really know what point you are trying to make :)My "yes" to your original question was as I said tongue in cheek. Wasn't agreeing that the BB was the reason for the 52w high and posted clarification.Have to agree with Ian, if the BB is such a red flag and you, or any other investor, strongly disagrees with the strategy then why invest in the first place, or why when invested keep moaning about it. It's done. The pros and cons have been debated on here repeatedly to the point where I'm completely bored of it tbh (no offence to anybody that has participated in the debate) and also think it does nothing in maintaining the excellent quality of this thread.Even debating/talking about "gaps" is preferable :) lolDD

[farnesbarnes] 14/2/2019 18:19

TA is more of an art than a science.

[ianwwwhite] 14/2/2019 18:06

Riley

I would urge caution on what you may read on the internet, I have just been reading 'Technical Analysis is Fundamentally Flawed'



It seems you can find 'good or bad' for most investment subjects :-)

[riley109] 14/2/2019 17:56

The pros and cons of share buybacks was not the question.The question was why did the directors of two plant hire companies decide to buyback their shares.
.

[bracke] 14/2/2019 16:43

"Why would they do that and why would Ashtead do the same ?."
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Riley

I suggest you enter 'share buybacks good or bad' into google for your answer.

[bracke] 14/2/2019 13:58

Disco

The point I was making was that if buybacks were used to drive the share price to the high it did not do much of a job to keep it there. If buybacks were NOT used to drive the share price to the high it illustrates that company performance is the driving force not attempting to manipulate the share price with company cash.

We are never going to agree on the subject of buybacks but maybe those who are undecided will at least gain an understanding of the factors involved.

[discodave4] 14/2/2019 13:50

Hi bracke"why did it then drop to £16.00?"Trump, US/China tariffs, Brexit, etc etc.IMO trying to align share price movement to just a small part of the overall business strategy and ignoring everything else (both macro and micro influencers) is pointless. My original "yes" to you question of did the BB raise the share price to £24.61 was tongue in cheek - for the 52w high and 52w low there is no single reason for the perceived value of the company, or are you saying there is? (don't mean supply/demand but what drives demand). Prove the buyback didn't drive the share price to £24.61 or that it was the reason for £16!. Personally don't give a monkeys what the BB has or hadn't done to the sp, it's the company's strategy and we either accept it or sell up and move on. I have no strong views for or against but have accepted it and with that accept the material benefits that will result rather than focussing on what might have been.DD

[bracke] 14/2/2019 13:10

Good day ian

"Therefore in what way does the buyback scheme impact your very limited ambitions for AHT? It's not going to change no matter how many times you post the same stuff"
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I am opposed to buyback schemes in general they are not the best use of company money.
Plus the dividend payment Mater received could have been improved by use of the buyback cash.

I did not "post the same stuff". I responded to the post by dcarn in which he stated that the cash used in buybacks had reached £500 million. I simply put that into perspective by expressing it in cash per share which I had not done so before.

Before Christmas you stated that you were not going to continue posting about the buybacks so why are you?

Good day Disco

If share buybacks did indeed take the share price to £24.61 why did it then drop to £16.00? I'm sure you will agree that is a considerable reduction and must surely put a ? over the buyback strategy.

[ianwwwhite] 14/2/2019 06:50

DD

Agreed!
.

[discodave4] 13/2/2019 22:55

Thanks IanNo more B word!

[discodave4] 13/2/2019 21:51

I reiterate.....Did share buybacks take the share price to £24.61 in September 2018?Yes :)

[ianwwwhite] 13/2/2019 17:52

Bracke

'I may sell at breakeven but would obviously prefer a profit'
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Therefore in what way does the buyback scheme impact your very limited ambitions for AHT? It's not going to change no matter how many times you post the same stuff

From Q2 results ending 31/10/18 : Completed £425m of original buyback programme, with a total of £675m anticipated to be spent under December 2017 programme. Minimum of £500m to be spent on buybacks in 2019/20