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Ashtead Group Share Discussion Threads
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|The share price held above the Daily SMA 100 but not yet reached the Daily SMA 50.
The average daily volume is 1.86 million. Yesterday and to-day volumes were below average.Buyers were in control.
Provided the DOW doesn't drop off later the share price may go for the gap fill tomorrow at 1680 assuming 1660 does not offer too much resistance.|
|Good day fenners
I agree with your comments about restructuring and exceptionals. It's as if the cost of them does not affect the bottom line, which of course it does. A myriad of errors, mistakes and similar can be hidden away. Perhaps they should also separate exceptional profits!|
|US new home sales 621,000 up 5.8%|
Shares of Caterpillar Inc. CAT, +6.71% rose 6% in premarket trade Tuesday after the company beat first-quarter earnings expectations and issued an upbeat outlook. It reported net income of $192 million, or 32 cents per share, down from $271 million, or 46 cents per share, in the year-earlier period. Excluding restructuring costs, it reported earnings per share of $1.28. The FactSet consensus was for earnings per share of 63 cents. Revenue was $9.82 billion, up from $9.46 billion in the year-earlier period and above the FactSet consensus of $9.26 billion. Caterpillar raised its 2017 revenue outlook to $38 billion to $41 billion, above the FactSet consensus of $37.9 billion. It expects profit per share of $2.10 at the midpoint of sales or $3.75 excluding restructuring costs, compared to the FactSet consensus of $3.25. It expects higher restructuring costs for the year, amounting to $1.25 billion.
"excluding restructuring costs" of $1.25 billion
Funny just had the discussion (I was ranting) about US companies and there addiction to exceptional costs this morning!
Rules are rules do not dump costs into restructuring and exceptionals ; again ! Ok well not next year then. If there are ANY exceptionals next year , or the year after (or as well) or in the year after that (or as well) they HAVE to be exceptional right!
Look ok so we screwed up the business for years and we had to make a few changes, we found a bunch of biscuits in the secretaries cupboard that have gone soft so we will have to write them off ---- $1.25bn
But luckily the cost of everything we were getting wrong last few years can be dealt with as an exceptional and we really have got a super business -honest. Anyway the market never looks any further than skin deep!|
|The share price has just about broken above the Daily SMA 100 which now needs to act as support. Then move on to the Daily SMA 50.
There is a gap at 1680 to fill.
I should also mention the opening gap from the 21st to the 24th which is from 1584.|
|Volume moderate and the share price opened and closed at the top end of the range. Buyers in control to-day.|
|The share price got to the Daily SMA 100 to-day but was unable to break through.
If it can hold onto to-day's gain it's in a good position to break up tomorrow and then try for the Daily SMA 50.|
|Thanks bracke for your analysis
Interesting times, looking forward to next instalment next week.
Not sure whether AHT has the same problem as URI, or is merely suffering from unwarranted contagion.
URI currently a further 2.3% down, -2.61 @ 110.66|
|The price action following the first gap fill was likely to be a problem. More often than not once a gap is filled the share price will return to the previous direction, in this instance down. The saving grace so far is that it has held above the previous close but remains below the Daily SMA 50 and 100.
Where next? French Election and result, £/$, etc, etc. but the drop below the last major swing low in March is a concern.|
Congratulations, a masterful stroke of opportunistic investing!
Interesting to see where AHT goes in the next few days..|
Not that I'm one to goat or is it gloat.
|That's quite a rebound and of course the Gap filled - now why didn't we buy this time yesterday?|
|(ShareCast News) - Equipment rental firm Ashtead retreated after results from US peer United Rentals showed rental rates were under pressure in the first quarter. United's operating profits were almost 2% short of Wall Street expectations, with rental rates down 1.4% year-on-year. Encouragingly, rental volume rose 7% and a positive 2017 outlook was given. UK rival Ashtead, which generates a large proportion of revenues from its US-based Sunbelt arm, hit an all-time high last month, supported by US President Donald Trump's pledges of significant investment in infrastructure that underpin management's 2021 growth plans, while a mooted reduction in corporate tax rates would also be a positive for the US business. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets noted on Thursday that Ashtead has "considerably stronger growth momentum" from Sunbelt, continues to push up margins and has much less exposure to oil and gas and no material exposure to Canada. Jefferies said they believed the macro backdrop remained supportive for equipment rental, with the American Rental Association forecasting 4.3% 2016-20 US rental market compound annual growth, supported by Dodge's construction firm confidence index being at eight year high, with continued non-residential construction growth and sustained energy sector activity recovery. But Jefferies highlighted potential delays in US infrastructure stimulus and tax cuts, with United Rental's stock having fallen around 16% from its March high, as "expectations on timelines for changes to US corporate tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending have moderated with potential delays". With Ashtead next reporting on 13 June, with fourth quarter full year results, RBC expected a continued positive growth message alongside an announcement on a capital returns strategy - calculating there is an implied £1bn available to return "if management remain comfortable with the cycle".|
|URI closed a further 5.2% down, -6.21 @ 113.24 - this might well bring more downwards pressure on AHT at commencement tomorrow.
|Fair volume to pull it back up but needs to do more.
Tomorrow is OPEX, let's see what that brings.|
|You've 'come out' at last.
I always knew you were a closet TA'r.|
|Ok I confess, I did read your earlier stuff about lower highs and parted company with this years CGT allowance last week, looks reasonable timing now..|
|Woe! Woe! and thrice Woe!.....the Ides of March are running late this year.
Being the smartass that I am (all us Gurus are after the event) the indications were there ie. two lower lows and a drop below the Daily SMA 50 and 100.
I previously posted that the share price had not made a lower low; it has today and a 'nice' chunky gap as well.
What next? If the good times are to continue and the drop today is merely an aberration it needs to at least move back above the last major swing low at 1590 and then continue up to fill the two gaps. However there is the possibility that the good times maybe delayed whilst the share price visits the Daily SMA 200 at approx 1440.|
|Those outlook figures have not formatted very well but essentially they were improving across the board, so the market focussed on softening rental rates instead of the all the rest.
Seems like they may have reduced their rates in order to boost utilisation and increase cash flow and profit ,then the market punishes us.
However it may be that AHT is the better provider and that URI had to respond like this , we shall see....|
Michael Kneeland, chief executive officer of United Rentals, said, "We were pleased with our momentum in the first quarter, particularly our 7% growth in volume and record time utilization driven by strength in our core construction markets. It was also encouraging to see positive trends in our upstream oil and gas business after the headwinds faced over the last several years. While our rental rates remained under some pressure, they continue to support our reaffirmed standalone 2017 guidance for total revenue, adjusted EBITDA and capital spending, and our increased guidance for free cash flow."
Kneeland continued, "As we enter the critical part of the construction season, we’re very encouraged by the continued strength of key leading indicators, the tone of conversations with our customers and the industry’s disciplined response in adding fleet. Our focus remains on implementation of Project XL and other initiatives that should enhance our long-term value. With the integration of NES now underway, our updated guidance reflects the combined operations across the remainder of 2017, as well as our sustained confidence in the cycle."
The company has issued the following new full-year guidance following the acquisition of NES Rentals on April 3, 2017:
Prior Outlook Current Outlook
Total revenue $5.75 billion to $5.95 billion $6.05 billion to $6.25 billion
Adjusted EBITDA4 $2.7 billion to $2.85 billion $2.835 billion to $2.985 billion
Net rental capital expenditures after gross
$900 million to $1.05 billion, after
gross purchases of $1.4 billion to $1.5
$925 million to $1.075 billion, after
gross purchases of $1.45 billion to
Net cash provided by operating activities $1.675 billion to $1.875 billion $1.85 billion to $2.05 billion
Free cash flow $650 million to $750 million $800 million to $900 million|
Not a clue.
Hoping we are back to the old cycle of peaking at results and falling back to the 150 or 200 day SMA in between.
|2flatURI - According to broker forecasts consensus was eps $1.55, they beat this by 5% @ $1.63.Looks like we may stay around this level now until the yanks open, any thoughts on likely movement then?.DD|