Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 07/3/2018 11:06

The share price still holding on to support but the test will come when the US market opens.

[fenners66] 07/3/2018 08:53

New all-time highs for H&E and URI?

And we dip because future outlook did not hint at being stella.

But AHT always underplayed the future.....

[bracke] 06/3/2018 18:11

That's a lot of volume with sellers firmly in control and a gap from 2030.

It closed managing to avoid breaking through support so not all bad. I would not be surprised if it tests the support level again.

[iomhere] 06/3/2018 14:25

henryatkin
You mention that sentiment here regarding the domestic housebuilding sector might be having an influence. I would tend to disagree although I do agree that UK house builders do not attract high ratings. This has always seemed strange since PSN, for example, has consistently done well over many years and has also paid well above average dividends. The mantra with UK builders is said to be buy just before Christmas and sell in the Spring. I prefer to steadily increase a holding in say PSN and stay with it for the long term.
As for AHT I feel I'm in the wrong game. My judgement sides one way and the market goes the other. If anyone has an enlightenment I'd be most grateful to hear it.

[ianwwwhite] 06/3/2018 13:56

kingston78

By my reckoning, Ashtead have bought back 4,870,500 shares at an average price of 2053.91.

I believe the closing high was around 2152 on 23rd Jan 2018.

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 13:50

kingston78 agreed to some extent
I expressed disappointment when they announced the buy back; I wanted higher dividends

[kingston78] 06/3/2018 13:02

Companies that have cash to buy back some of their own shares always buy at a peak.

[james97] 06/3/2018 12:04

Certainly AHT is not solely governed by Uk sentiment but it does seem to have some effect. AHT does tend to trade on a lower multiple than URI even though it is AHT which has the stronger growth.

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 11:32

Let me give you another example

Standard Chartered.

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 11:27

No it isn't

[henryatkin] 06/3/2018 11:17

fenners...its irrelevant that their business is in the US. Their free float is mostly traded by UK investors with UK sentiment.

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 11:04

But that ignores the one of 80p

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 11:03

15x my forecast of this years EPS (129.5p) is 1943....

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 10:31

"Group payable days were 53 days in 2018 (2017: 58 days)"

So unlike CLLN (say) AHT are playing fair with their suppliers and this is one day less than receivables.

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 10:29

Well just in case the brokers are reading I have added some snippets from the results ....

and we have a little tick up ......... lol.

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 10:27

Measured over the last twelve months to 31 January 2018,
average physical utilisation at Sunbelt US was 72% (2017: 70%)
and 68% at A-Plant (2017: 69%).

Dollar utilisation
was 55% at Sunbelt US (2017: 54%),
49% at A-Plant (2017: 52%)
and 58% at Sunbelt Canada (2017: 41%).

That Canada number is good and suggests that bringing CRS into the fold has had led to much better
performance

[bracke] 06/3/2018 10:23

That didn't go exactly to plan but the chart is classic.

The share price went straight to the last major swing low and a major support which coincided with the LP of the red PF. The saving grace is that a lower high is not (yet) confirmed. A break below support would be a concern and a close below support would be very concerning.

I have not yet drawn an upward PF. Confirmation of a continuing rise is required before I do. It certainly needs to move back up to the ML and beyond before it is 'out of the woods'.

AHT DAILY

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 10:21

"Sunbelt US's organic growth of 18% is well in excess of that of the rental
market as we continue to take market share."

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 10:20

£290m spent on acquisitions during the 9 months and

" Since the balance sheet date, the Group has completed three acquisitions as follows:

i) On 14 February 2018, Sunbelt US acquired the business and assets of Nickell Equipment Rental & Sales, Inc. ('Nickell') for a cash consideration of GBP11m ($15m). Nickell is a general equipment rental business in Georgia.

ii) On 23 February 2018, Sunbelt US acquired the business and assets of Beaupre Aerial Equipment, Inc. and Beaupre Equipment Services, Inc. (together 'Beaupre') for a cash consideration of GBP41m ($57m). Beaupre is an aerial work platform rental business in Minnesota.

iii) On 27 February 2018, Sunbelt US acquired certain business and assets of West Georgia Equipment & Party Rental, LLC ('WGE') for a cash consideration of GBP2m ($3m). WGE is a general equipment rental business in Georgia.


Another £54m spent since.

And brokers worry about forward guidance for 2019?


Seems to me that they have been consolidating the rental market supply with "cheap" borrowings and when that stops there should be some serious cash generation.

The timing of the slow down of acquisitions and conserving cash relative to the strength of the underlying rental market will be key.

If they get that right the show be generating huge amounts of cash, I for one would like to see a serious attempt at repaying borrowings before the next change in market cycle.

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 10:10

Since banking covenant breaches are flavour of the month (IRV , MTC etc)


"This covenant does not apply when availability exceeds $310m. As a matter of good practice, we calculate the covenant ratio each quarter. At 31 January 2018, the fixed charge ratio exceeded the covenant requirement. "


So not even going to do a test let alone fail it.


However it does beg the question that since

"At 31 January 2018, availability under the senior secured bank facility was $1,124m ($1,305m at 30 April 2017), with an additional $2,276m of suppressed availability, meaning that the covenant did not apply at 31 January 2018 and is unlikely to apply in forthcoming quarters. "


They have well over a $1Bn of senior secured facility does the bank charge fees based upon the size of the facility?

So they are egged on to go for a larger facility to give them headroom - which they don't intend to use - just so the bank can charge more?

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 10:02

Huttonr - who did they mix the numbers up with?

There's a challenge....

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 10:01

EPS for the year likely to be over 200p

So we are on a multiple of less than 10 !


.........

[huttonr] 06/3/2018 10:01

Just out of interest - and to show the quality of broker's comments - today's Barclays "Smart Investor" morning call states:

Equipment rental company Ashtead said full year pre-tax profits rose 9.5% at constant currency rates to £438.8m as the group upped its dividend payout ratio to around 50% of earnings from this year.

[fenners66] 06/3/2018 10:00

We could try playing the EPS card - that would fool the likes of Chronic Investor

..................................................3 months ............9 months
Basic earnings per share..........110.2p 22.0p 174.7p 76.3p

[2flatpack] 06/3/2018 09:57

Don't forget you know who ! BOUGHT shares on Friday which has odiously confused the market.
I noted it went down to the 150 day and our guru's resistance .
I was so taken by surprise that I only managed to catch the bounce at 1920 .
Great results congratulations and thanks to Geoff. and team.
Sorry to hear Suzanne is leaving ,many thanks to her for her outstanding contribution
to Aht's success story and good luck in the future.
Cheers