Arrow Global Share Discussion Threads

[elsa7878] 27/8/2020 15:25

£ 1.3 billion

[marmar80] 27/8/2020 00:08

Whaf is the total debt here?

[riverman77] 25/8/2020 21:31

Yes the NAV is basically the difference between 2 very large numbers - a billion odd debt and a billion odd assets. So it only takes a small write down in the value of the loans to knock a huge chunk off the NAV. In fact if you strip out the intangibles there is no equity value.

The bullish case is to ignore the balance sheet and look at the expected cashflow which they are confident will be enough over the next few years to meet the debt repayments - the first bonds are not due to be refinanced until 2024 so that's a big positive.

[topvest] 25/8/2020 17:45

Well the magnifying impact of leverage means 50% of the NAV has so far been wiped by Covid-19. That’s the big problem with this company/ upside depending which way things turn out. Results are simply the bi-product of their modelling of the portfolio value. If they have been cautious, there is upside. If they haven’t then NAV is heading south towards zero. The Asset Management side is encouraging, but the valuation of the portfolio is a bit of a gamble in my view.

[aldoeldo] 25/8/2020 13:00

long way to go for 240p pre covid

[archy147] 25/8/2020 11:55

what took it so long!

[ammu12] 25/8/2020 11:54

100 on the ask

[ammu12] 25/8/2020 09:25

Shore capital this morningIn a note, analysts at Shore Capital reiterated their ‘buy’ rating on the stock, saying that despite the swing to loss the results provided “scope for optimism on multiple frontsâ€? and that they expected the shares to rally as the firm had been “somewhat left behind by a recent rally in the debt purchaser peer group sub-sectorâ€?.

[ammu12] 25/8/2020 09:24

Wow 100p here we come

[martindjzz] 25/8/2020 09:23

Seball, good management? I had already lost confidence in management reporting when I sold out in September 2017. There has been extensive use of smoke and mirrors in reporting ever since.

[ammu12] 25/8/2020 09:23

Squeeze on now...100p looks on for today.

[ammu12] 25/8/2020 09:22

A decent hold now this current share price is a gift.Come back in 6 months and share price will be multiples....

[seball] 25/8/2020 09:06

Shore capital this morning

In a note, analysts at Shore Capital reiterated their ‘buy’ rating on the stock, saying that despite the swing to loss the results provided “scope for optimism on multiple fronts” and that they expected the shares to rally as the firm had been “somewhat left behind by a recent rally in the debt purchaser peer group sub-sector”.

[seball] 25/8/2020 09:04

Arrow Global in a strong position, Makes a change having good management in place.

[ammu12] 25/8/2020 08:55

Shores capital this morning:In a note, analysts at Shore Capital reiterated their 'buy' rating on the stock, saying that despite the swing to loss the results provided "scope for optimism on multiple fronts" and that they expected the shares to rally as the firm had been "somewhat left behind by a recent rally in the debt purchaser peer group sub-sector".

[ammu12] 25/8/2020 08:50

100p still looks a possibility if not today defo this week!!

[ammu12] 25/8/2020 08:50

Riverman, have a look at their forecast for H2 and reasons for writedowns...This business is a bit different to your normal company.Beyond the cash position and £2.6b of fund management, I think the most important but maybe overlooked part of todays result is:"With €1.1 billion of discretionary undeployed fund management capital, we are extremely well placed to be a leading investor in this huge market with increasingly attractive returns"ARW are in a very good position to capitalise.

[riverman77] 25/8/2020 08:47

Will take a more detailed look. I agree there could be value here but difficult to assess the quality of the assets.

[ammu12] 25/8/2020 08:45

They have already gone down 75% in value since the pandemic.Most knew there would be a loss however the outlook was the important bit you've missed.....

[ammu12] 25/8/2020 08:44

Good luck to you.

[seball] 25/8/2020 08:44

Riverman looking at the balance sheet they are well placed. Also have a look at presentation which explains results in more detail. Results were better than I expected and shares undervalued at current price imo

[riverman77] 25/8/2020 08:37

I dug down a bit deeper and focused on the balance sheet which doesn't look good

[ammu12] 25/8/2020 08:20

I also liked this part in forward looking statement We are looking forward to 2021 with optimism. Our analysis of the impact of the pandemic on the balance sheets of European financial institutions shows that the increased volume of NPLs sold into the capital markets in the coming years will eclipse the circa EUR800 billion divested over the last six years in response to the bad loans created by the global financial crisis (GFC). When viewed alongside the pre-COVID-19 EUR1.5 trillion NPL and non-core credit market, we are looking at a potential once-in-a-lifetime multi-decade market opportunity.

[ammu12] 25/8/2020 08:19

Did you read the rns and the outlook ?