Arrow Global Share Discussion Threads

[linton5] 23/4/2019 08:42

Well I’ve took some today seems a nice gift with a lovely dividend soon 🎁 time will tell

[linton5] 08/4/2019 13:37

Bank of Montreal taking a nice holding here does look a bargain,keeping an eye on this ☝️ One

[parvez] 28/3/2019 07:24

Topvest, you are right...shorts slowly unwinding i.e. if they can buy back any stock!

[makinbuks] 21/3/2019 12:42

Cant find an update on the 11.3% commented on above. There have been no notifications since 15th March so I wonder following yesterday and todays movement we are about to see some further announcements made

[sphere25] 20/3/2019 18:45

I have nothing to say on the fundamentals of this stock, it's a hard one to decipher. Let's get that out of the way first.

Market dynamics wise, I just wonder if there is a short squeeze about to play out. A couple of funds are starting to flinch and cover. It won't take too much covering along with normal market demand to get the others to realise that they could get squeezed a great deal higher, and then have them scrambling to cover too.

Fascinating watch these crowded short plays. Happy to nip in and out of these for short term trades only. Clearly, a massive short squeeze and it's happy days!

[makinbuks] 20/3/2019 11:50

and a corresponding rise in the share price today. Looking positive

[topvest] 19/3/2019 20:32

Short positions are starting to wind-down a bit, so bodes well. 11.3% now from 12%.

[makinbuks] 19/3/2019 14:52

You could worry about that lenz or you could look at the maturity and cost of that debt and balance it against the receivables book they own. In addition they have a growing advisory business which doesn't require the same level of debt to support it. So far they've recovered consistently more from the receivables they have bought than they assumed when they bid for them. Whether or not you think that trend will continue is the relevant question in respect of the debt

[lenzcrafter] 15/3/2019 21:48

Is it me, or does anyone think that their debt is way way too high compared to profit?Or is there something I'm missing?

[steverabet] 05/3/2019 11:17

absent any horrible news, the shorts will get closed out (its costing them the div plus borrowing costs), so there will come a time soon enough where maintaining the short won't be worth it. and having to buy back 12% of the company is going to inevitably bump the price up significantly

[topvest] 04/3/2019 10:36

Yes, shorter's hold 12% of the stock and its the highest shorted stock in the UK. Either they will get burnt or we will. I'm still fairly confident that Arrow's strategy is sound. It would be nice of the directors would buy some shares themselves though.

[ttny2004] 04/3/2019 08:03

About BoD do something against short position in terms of share buyback. Much better than increased dividends in such cases. Normally strengthens share price

[mcjack] 28/2/2019 21:00

Buy recommendation today from Shore Capital with target of 400p. If anyone can access their report could they post the key points?

[topvest] 28/2/2019 20:55

Yes, I think management are misunderstood. The strategy is working. I will hold on in there and read the annual report in a bit more detail.

[barnold] 28/2/2019 08:52

Results better than I expected. Will hang on in here for now, despite the large short on this stock.

[wiseacre] 09/1/2019 14:17

Though I closed my short before Christmas making a very handsome profit wouldn't be long of this one for all the tea in China.

[topvest] 07/1/2019 20:50

I think not. Its well worth holders or shorters watching this
hxxps://fotwlive.videosync.fi/2018-11-08-arrow-cmd-2018

There has been a lot of negativity about the bond refinancing and the costs thereof, but the CEO does explain it very clearly. I have reassessed my position given the level of shorting, and I'm going to stay aboard.

From their perspective its all about where they are in the cycle. They believe (and I agree) that we are near the top of the current cycle. They have therefore been very cautious and made sure that all their debt is refinanced for 6 years. They therefore will not need any refinancing in a downturn and are locked in at low rates of interest. They expect to generate £1.6 billion of cash flow before any debt needs refinancing. Its correct that this has been expensive, but I think the logic is sound and they now have a long-term financed balance sheet - even with a large debt number.

I purchased these for the asset management opportunity more than anything else...here they have £52bn AUM and c£75m of annual revenues, along with future deal flow. I still like it.

[maya2006] 05/1/2019 18:42

This looks like another UTW, interserve etc😂

[ttg100] 06/12/2018 16:07

dumped -18% :(

[effortless cool] 09/11/2018 07:22

I wouldn't say the numbers are not legit. The bond refinancing costs are lumpy, occasional costs that do mess up period-to-period comparisons. However, rather than exclude them, I would like to see them spread over the duration of the refinanced bond in the adjusted numbers, which would then show the advantage of the interest cost of benefit of refinancing net of the cost of refinancing allocated to that same period.

[martindjzz] 09/11/2018 06:56

Thanks MartinC and Effortless. I reached similar conclusions prior to selling out back in August 2017. Have been waiting for more legit numbers before considering buying back in but apparently we do not have them yet.

[effortless cool] 08/11/2018 21:47

martindjzz re 1130,

Yes, anyone who has looked at the q3 results or any other previous set of results has seen an analysis of the difference between the underlying EPS and the actual EPS.

For those that have not bothered, the main differences are: £6.0m restructuring costs, £3.1m acquisition expenses, and £18.7m bond refinancing costs.

I view the last of these as questionable, particularly since the adjusted profit takes the full benefit from the lower interest paid as a result of the refinancing.

[topvest] 08/11/2018 21:29

Good news today. Short sellers must be feeling the pain, given 10.5% of the stock is sold short.

[martinc] 08/11/2018 18:24

I think most of the difference in the two eps values is down to the."exceptional" cost of refinancing their bonds.

[martindjzz] 08/11/2018 16:47

Has anybody seen an analysis of the items accounting for the difference between the Underlying EPS of 24.5p that ARW likes to talk about and the actual EPS of 11.7p?