Arrow Global Share Discussion Threads

[effortless cool] 30/8/2018 13:50

No, I think it is you that is being found out.

[wiseacre] 30/8/2018 13:39

Wait and see. Ultimately the company will get found out.

[effortless cool] 30/8/2018 11:01

Wiseacre,

Why does it have to constantly increase its portfolio?

Net cash flow from operating activities before purchases of loan portfolios was +£106.9m. That compares with interest payable of -£41.5m, i.e. operating cash flows apparently easily cover ongoing financing costs, leaving plenty of scope to pay dividends and pay down loans.

And what do you base your 11% on loans claim on? It's more like 5-6%. For example, they issued E285m of senior secured notes at 3.75% over 3-month LIBOR and drew down £220m of 5.125% fixed rate notes during the period. If you can't provide a derivation for your figure, I can only assume it is made up.

[craig140583] 30/8/2018 10:58

Utter tosh. Simple.

[wiseacre] 30/8/2018 10:40

What people do not understand is the cashflow is negative and the company has to run ever faster to stand still constantly increasing its portfolio. Meantime it is paying 11% on new debt and cannot issue any more. It is running out of space and investors (mainly retail) are getting conned.

[uhound] 30/8/2018 08:21

Yes, I agree the results look fine and I think I'll get back in having invested in the past when it came to market.

[rimau1] 30/8/2018 08:07

Results look good to me, pleased with the divi hike, outlook, and the overall strong underlying performance once the One Arrow costs that will run off end of year are stripped out. Hope for more Director buying if this remains below £3. Any views?

[rimau1] 29/8/2018 16:21

If this were to re-rate there is serious upside here, continued collections progress and a better cost story would please the market tomorrow. Always nice to see a bounce the day before. Still think the risk is skewed to the upside at these levels.

[rimau1] 29/8/2018 08:31

I have bought back in at the same price i sold 2years ago! There has actually been a decent slow steady recovery from recent lows of 230 no? Results tomorrow should be interesting, as usual it will all be about the outlook statement, plenty of director buys before the closed period started in the 260-290’s so lets see...

[wiseacre] 28/8/2018 16:02

The shorters are quids in. A 10p fall two days before the results doesn't look good.

[steverabet] 12/8/2018 20:47

i actually take some heart from the fact that this is so heavily shorted. shorting has a time-critical element to it - it costs roughly 3% pa in borrowing fees, plus the shorter has to reimburse the owner any dividends out of his own pocket. so the added selling pressure exerted by the shorter will artificially depress the price, but if the short doesnt pay for itself reasonably quickly, then the inverse is true - the added buying pressure to close the short drives the price back up. as long as you are reasonably confident that you havent backed a lame pony (eg carillion) then money can be made (greencore) although this latter was pretty much dependent on timing - it's a bit of a dog in reality. there are serious questions as to how robust ARW will prove should a recession hit, so i am keeping a close eye on it

[shauney2] 08/8/2018 12:20

Sorry wrong thread lol.

[deadly] 08/8/2018 11:44

Very Irish.

[eastbourne1982] 08/8/2018 11:18

New highs ?? What ??

[shauney2] 08/8/2018 10:54

New highs which is very nice.

[wiseacre] 08/8/2018 09:12

If you can't be good be careful. I have been warning investors all the way down from £4 a share. This company will crash to earth. It is ironic that a debt collector should get so indebted! Sell side analysts cannot be trusted and the IC knows diddly squat!

[makinbuks] 26/7/2018 16:10

Buying a Portugese property manager! Is it me or is that a bit left field? Otherwise looks like an encouraging forecast update

[wiseacre] 19/7/2018 17:18

Someone trying to hold price up with wild talk of a bid from Apax!

[fernandello] 15/7/2018 23:52

Liquidity ratio of 0.14, what does it mean?

[bulltradept] 25/6/2018 15:56

By Emma Powell

An increase in operating costs at Arrow Global (ARW) during the first quarter spooked investors, with the shares closing 13 per cent down following the update. Operating expenses were up more than a third, pushing operating profit down 9 per cent to £22m.

ARW:LSE
Arrow Global Group PLC

1mth
Today change
-6.73% Price (GBP)
242.50
The rise in operating costs was linked to investment costs to do to its ‘One Arrow’ strategy and entrance into the Italian distressed debt market, as well as greater upfront costs associated with an abnormally high proportion of secured debt purchases during the period. However, revenue was up almost a fifth thanks to an increase in capital-light asset management income of around the same amount and a 12 per cent rise in core debt collections. The group bought a record £80m in debt, taking estimated revenue collections to £1.85bn at the end of March.

IC View
Management says it is on track to meet its medium-term targets, including earnings per share growth in the high teens. But house broker Shore Capital downgraded its adjusted EPS forecasts for this year and next by 3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. At 335p, the shares trade at 2.9 times forecast net assets, falling to 2.3 times at December 2019. The latter is a discount to when we tipped the shares (375.75p, 27 Apr 2017). Arrow’s collections performance remains solid at 103 per cent of its underwriting forecast during the period. We remain buyers at 334p.

Last IC View: Buy, 390p, 2 Mar 2018

[eastbourne1982] 25/6/2018 15:55

Carnage, this is looking very dodgy now.

[ttny2004] 25/6/2018 15:49

Great time for company to start a buy back scheme rather than or in addition to pay dividends. Shorter would be doing shareholders a great favour then.

[wiseacre] 25/6/2018 12:37

FYI


Five hedge funds have now disclosed short positions in Arrow Global, hoping to profit from a fall in the share price of London’s largest listed debt collector, whose stock touched a record high in August 2017 having surged 164 per cent in the prior 12 months. The Manchester-based company, which employs nearly 1,500 people, has seen its share price tumble more than 36 per cent this year, leaving it with a market capitalisation of £443m.

More than 11 per cent of Arrow’s free float is now on loan to short sellers, according to Markit data, the highest level since its initial public offering in 2013.

[wiseacre] 25/6/2018 12:15

Nothing frantic mate. Just trying to instil a little intelligence. Only time will tell.

[andyj] 23/6/2018 06:47

Hedge funds have been around for years, indeed they should be part of a good portfolio, but really entered the public consciousness after the Carillion debacle. Since then they have been revered and feared by private investors. The truth is blindly following them has been a recipe for disaster. Sainsbury's, Ocado, Anglo American are just three recent examples when they were badly burned. Wiseacre you previously alluded to the opinion of Bybrook Capital as being your own, until a link was posted. Your continuing reference to their article smacks of desperation and a reverence of the aforementioned, neither of which is healthy or interesting. ARW might well become a successful short for Bybrook, but basing your investment decisions around one article and trying frantically to persuade others is not a tactic successful investors need to use.