Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 17/6/2024 10:46

AXL Share Price -> 19.15p
AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 17p on 15 Nov 23 -> 12.65%
AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 27.75p on 21 March 24 -> -30.99%
Brent -> $82.50
Market Cap (GBP) -> £54,743,023
GBPUSD -> 1.265
Market Cap (USD) -> $69,249,924
Production Average FY 2022 -> 1,345
Production Average Q1 2023 -> 1,635
Production Average Q2 2023 -> 2,169
Production Average Q3 2023 -> 2,518
Production Average Q4 2023 -> 2,335
Production Average FY 2023 -> 2,167
Production Average Q1 2024 -> 2,730
Production Levels End March 2024 -> 2,900
Net Cash (31 Mar 24) -> $11,606,343
Inventory (Q1 2024 Results) -> $492,240
Debt -> $0
Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) -> $57,643,581
EV/Barrel Q1 2024 Production Average -> $21,115
EV/Barrel Production Levels (March End 2024) -> $19,877
EV/Barrel (Auctus 3900 Boe/d Expected By Q4 2024) -> $14,780
Decommissioning liability (Q1 2024 Results RNS) -> $4,282,861
2P Reserves (Year End 2023) -> 11,847,000
EV/2P -> $4.87
Shares Outstanding -> 285,864,348
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) -> 292,791,385
Net Cash Plus Inventory Component of AXL share price -> 3.35p

[11_percent] 17/6/2024 10:45

Share price is practically where it was pre-CN discovery, when production was much lower and alternative leads like Baquiano, Capullo and Mateguafa attic were not yet developed nor were the pads ready for drilling...

==================

A lot of AIM oil shares are showing this pattern.......the share price goes down before some major....or even not so major....news.......news comes out good......and share price goes up to where it was before the recent fall.

So.....you get no overall share price increase.

[buffinman] 17/6/2024 10:44

MA does like doling out management goodies.

[11_percent] 17/6/2024 10:40

The_Gold_Mine has a point.

CNB HZ-01

Spud was on Thursday 16th May.....and vertical wells take at least 1 month to drill and report.

Take it as 5 weeks.....that is Thursday 20th June....ie, this coming Thursday.

And my guess....it is going to be longer....so, few weeks away yet.

[gazza102] 17/6/2024 10:30

Just crazy

[the_gold_mine] 17/6/2024 09:51

As expected, no RNS today.... Share price is practically where it was pre-CN discovery, when production was much lower and alternative leads like Baquiano, Capullo and Mateguafa attic were not yet developed nor were the pads ready for drilling...

[mount teide] 15/6/2024 11:17

Let the trend be your friend - in the last week we've had the following developments:

* New Zealand to reverse ban on oil / gas exploration

* New York indefinitely postpones congestion fee

* US raises fuel economy standards less than proposed

* Green parties heavily lose vote share in European elections

Against this backdrop: The clowns running the UK's Socialist Labour Party announce to the world they intend to light the after burners on the UK's ultra high cost transition to 'renewables'!


'Global oil demand is trending above every IEA "scenario". So much that achieving NZE 2030 numbers feels science fiction'.....Javier Blas - Bloomberg 12 June

'5-year oil forecast for 2030: ~105.4
STEPS scenario for 2030: ~104.5
APS scenario for 2030: ~97.5
NZE scenario for 2030: ~83.7

I do note there are definition and methodological differences between the numbers for the 2030 forecast and 2030 scenarios. But even so, the gap is so large (particularly with the APS and NZE) that those differences are meaningless to the broader point.'


Opec reopens rift with IEA on peak demand - Argus / 13/06/24

'Opec today reopened a rift with the IEA about the future need for oil, calling the Paris-based agency's forecast for peak demand this decade a "continuation of its anti-oil narrative."

Opec secretary-general Haitham Al Ghais said the IEA's projection, made earlier this week, is a "dangerous narrative" that "will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale." He made his case in a commentary for consultancy Energy Aspects that Opec made publicly available.........

....Criticism of the IEA from the upstream industry has magnified since 2021, when the agency said that 2050 climate goals exclude the need for any new oil and gas fields. Saudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman described this as "la la land" analysis. This year the IEA has come under fire from Republicans in the US Congress who have said the agency is veering into climate advocacy. US industry body API chief executive Mike Sommers said earlier this year the IEA "has become, unfortunately, so politicized that it's just not a reliable source of data any more." ''




OPECSec Gen: Peak oil demand not on the horizon

[mount teide] 14/6/2024 18:58

The average daily transaction volume this week has been 540k........just 42.8% of the three month daily average of 1.26m.

Hardly insider trading behaviour! If anything, it points to the opposite - shareholders keeping a firm grip on their investments.


However, a large minority of equity market 'investors' are long only traders who invariably run tight stop losses.

Many brokers/dealers and hedge funds see them as sheep for the fleecing - the advent of DMA, Spread Betting and CFD's have simply brought an extra sophistication to the shearing process.

AIMHO/DYOR

[the_gold_mine] 14/6/2024 18:38

True though that may be, it doesn't change the thrust of my argument. I've not seen Arrow spud and test a well in less than a month before - although I've heard plenty of rampy statements from Marshall on interviews bandying about 3 week figures from spud to onstream for the verticals, which doesn't correlate with what they actually write in the RNSs.

We'll find out next week anyway, but I'm more inclined to believe the timelines written in the RNSs than the statements getting made by Marshall during interviews,

AIMHO / DYOR

[rockyride] 14/6/2024 18:19

I was told yesterday that the HZ well will be RNSd soon. Based on previous wording like that to me, Id be amazed if we do not see an update sometime next week.

[the_gold_mine] 14/6/2024 17:29

I don't think I recall seeing AXL drilling, casing, cementing and testing any well in less than one month out of 15+ wells to date. So I would not expect the first horizontal which is perceived as "higher risk" (and which I seem to recall Marshall saying previously would need an extra week compared to the verticals) to be done any faster.

It wouldn't surprise me if the result came in the last week of June and they had not even started testing yet.

Anyway, we can speculate as much as we want, but until the RNS lands nobody on here will no for sure..

But I keep in mind it does not take long to flow test a duster, so the longer it runs the more likely we are to be getting something out of it imho.

AIMHO/DYOR.

[mrscruff] 14/6/2024 16:31

Oh no please don't start that conspiracy stuff to explain the reason for the drop. It's people de-risking at a lower price than a higher price we are used to because there is a lack of buyers the price needed to come down. I had added a few just before the bell at a fraction under 20p.

A stop loss is a bad idea as it will sell low before you can get back in for the next drill. Even if the news is good but the RNS is a bit cloudy could trigger the stop loss at this rate. You have to be in for the entire campaign imho.

Hay I am in JSE too. Strange times. Wish I had more Nvidia.

[nicosevos] 14/6/2024 16:22

Hmmmmmmm.....How many stop losses are being taken out by the MMs.....I wonder why!!!
gla

[upwego] 14/6/2024 16:08

JSE - company have confirmed all on track and maiden production this month - yet no buying.. Aim oil & gas sector is changing for sure..

Good weekend all

[upwego] 14/6/2024 16:07

I`m in for HZ wells so any up and down to me prior results is no concern to me.

remember there`s a reason there drilling these Hz wells as it massive and they want to get more pay and more production.. Only risk I see is mechanical issues.

The sells I believe is people balancing there risk would not look to much into that.

Anyway, were nearly there wishing all holders success on this first well :)

[chessman2] 14/6/2024 15:31

Sadly I've had to sell 10% of my shedload. I was hoping the news would have been announced this week but I suppose it will now be next week

In any event, I am convinced that good news will soon be here as all the noises from the company point in that direction!!

[king suarez] 14/6/2024 14:29

The biggest single trade of the day was a buy of 116,675k shares @ 20.4p?

/shrug

We'll see next week.

[pastybap] 14/6/2024 14:27

472k shares is not exactly big volume. Its not even £100k!

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 13:52

Hopefully not with Milliband's monstrosity yesterday and other poor updates could do with a winner :)

Marshall hopefully will not end up on the list of poorly performing AIM CEOs....

[11_percent] 14/6/2024 13:44

Trades for today:
No: 20
Buys: 2
Sells: 18

Buy Vol: 1,014
Sell Vol: 472,624

This is not looking good......does someone know something.

The sells are all big round numbers.

[the_gold_mine] 14/6/2024 12:52

Sold volume of £50k, nothing to get excited about

[rockyride] 14/6/2024 12:16

Constant sells and no buys is a concern. I suspect there could be issues with HZ1. Not a definite by any means but with trading patterns like this - smoke and fire come to mind!

[mrscruff] 14/6/2024 10:27

Thank you all for the replies. All I can see is that the market is applying too much "risk" than what is warranted. Anyone lurking and waiting for results make sure you have the NR-301 form filled in to be able to buy.

[dicko80] 14/6/2024 10:02

Although HZ is more expensive than a vertical well to the tune of approx c65% ($1.5m to $2.5m net)

the payback is less than 3 months based on 1000bopd net

Worth remembering this reservoir “kicks the bbls out” and we can be “a little more aggressive”

550m of reservoir via HZ vs 15m vertical

Interesting times a head

GLA