Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[rockyride] 14/6/2024 09:34

They backtracked on the number of rigs when FCF was hit due to the 2 x OP wells not being stimulated and the high water cut on some other wells. We out-turned 2023 at 3,300boepd but soon after that were down to 2,700boepd. With HZ successes this will fly but if they end up completing as verticals, I see us bouncing around 20p for quite some time to come.

[jailbird] 14/6/2024 09:27

These HZ drills are not cheap and with small future declines in existing wells , these HZ must come good for the share price

[beaks44] 14/6/2024 09:23

Fingers crossed for news of 1000 boed early next week but i cant stop myself from thinking i'll be disappointed!!
There was talk of two drilling rigs for large parts of 24 campaign and at times three...has that gone by the wayside with focus on HZ's.

[lexion] 14/6/2024 09:19

Would be ecstatic if MA was the first CEO in history to under promise and over deliver - 1000 bopd net to AXL from each HZ would be stunning Good luck all

[dicko80] 14/6/2024 08:58

Morning all

As we know O&G high risk business, but at least we have proven oil is there and the risk for us is low but still risk with the drillbit

I don’t see success already in the price , I think it’s more conservative approach by investors, “wait and see”but maybe they are missing the number of wells planned to be drilled to push production much higher all low risk, infill , appraisal drilling

GLA

[rockyride] 14/6/2024 08:56

MrS - certainly these markets not the same as they used to be. We used to see rises when SPUDS were announced and on the run up to results. Those days are long gone but in this instance I did expect a bit of new money coming in anticipation of a strong HZ well coming on line. MA talks as though we will see 1,000bopepd net to AXL as a matter of course. A bit like shooting fish in a barrel. Even at 700boepd we would be adding 25% to current production. My contact normally gives a few words as to how things are going but on this occasion I was simply told that and update on the well will be issued soon. I used to get things like - we are very happy - or things are going really well. But as has been noted the downturn in tone could quite possibly come from me complaining about all the spin from the company. A bit like when MA said we WILL be testing the will 1st week of June and we WILL issue the results during the 2nd week. There is ZERO chance of an updater today. Lets hope we see one early next week and lets hope we see >1,000boepd net to AXL.

[royalalbert] 14/6/2024 08:55

TGM will second that statement, if everything was easy we would all be rolling in cash.

[the_gold_mine] 14/6/2024 08:49

McScruff, the AIM energy sector is packed to the gills full of companies with rapid growth plans and windbag CEOs who promise the earth and deliver nothing... Whilst Arrow is my largest holding and I personally believe they will comfortably push past 5,000 BOPD this year I understand the reluctance of others to extend any trust until test results are apparent... Trusting management can be an expensive business in the AIM as I found out to my cost with SOUC, TXP and others.

[mrscruff] 14/6/2024 07:37

Lunch time RNS possible. This all feels somewhat too easy at 21p especially if you understand EMH. Sits uneasy. Where is the rise allowing investors to de-risk or is there zero risk and success factored in.

[eaglehaslanded] 13/6/2024 20:20

Hopefully the first HZ results come this week if not next.

[dicko80] 13/6/2024 19:42

Thanks RR

With it being the first HZ no doubt they’ll be collating all the data , to really understand reservoir performance and how it behaves, in readiness & Prep for CNB HZ2 and 3.

Added some more today 🤞

GLA

[rockyride] 13/6/2024 19:31

Hopefully AECO will be above $2.50 and remain above that for years to come. Be good that our gas will be making a profit as well instead of our oil production subsidising it.

[rockyride] 13/6/2024 18:32

When are we going to see the bloody AECO price start its expected rise? 65c is absolutely mental. How's HZ1 going and when are you hoping to release results?--------------------AECO prices are rough this year. https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices This is the future strip that we use. It shows AECO not getting over $1 until October. HZ release will be coming soon.

[here and there] 13/6/2024 08:06

The only direct comparitive we have is Amerisur which Geopark bought for £242m in 2019

They had 6800 bopd of production at the time $46m in cash 1p of 15-20mboe and 2p of 12m boe . Net backs were pretty similar to Arrow today. The oil price was $71 at the time.

If Arrow get to 10000 bopd, have $50m in the bank and reserves of 20m boe. OIl is averaging over $80. £300m is not an unreasonable target price. £1 has been my 'wish number' for some time. Think it is doable. How long until we achieve those numbers is reliant on these horizontals, the multiple exploration wells to unlock new prospects and further 3D work being shot on the Tapir block.

I have had one of the II's suggest to me that the block has the potential to produce 30000 bopd. Sounds like fantasy at the moment. Get to 10000 bopd and flog it with upside would suit me just fine!

[upwego] 13/6/2024 06:56

Should have some news soon hey probably next week I reckon.

[upwego] 13/6/2024 06:35

£1 target for me if we can reach 8000 bopd with no dilution and self funded exploration along with infill drilling.

[gazza102] 12/6/2024 17:43

I think it will alot more than that if drilling successful.

[mrscruff] 12/6/2024 16:46

D80, we have 50% working interest on the Tapir Block. Should be plenty.

It will take longer than investors expect but I can see us being sold for 60p to 80p based on proving up more reserves and thankfully those are modest at the moment so we can easily and steadily add to those and increase our NAV.

[dicko80] 12/6/2024 15:38

Thanks for the replies guys

Just a question on the HZ wells

Page 16 - April presentation



Refers to zones - upto 1000bopd net per zone, are the classing zones as reservoirs ?

Then page 22 with ref to well simulation, potential upto 6000bopd at peak rates , thats a bit different than the above number

Then to confuse further page 31 with the table and IP net figures 1123bopd CNB HZ 1

I guess they had few pages to fill in the presentation

But good to see on page 19 spud dates for the first 3 , May, June, July

What a set up , to hopefully double production just on these 3 HZ wells back to back , May - July just a start with further wells drilled

🤞🤞🤞

[mount teide] 12/6/2024 10:50

IEA - its leadership has been captured by the net zero globalists and are now little more than 'green' political activists masquerading as a global energy agency.

They were the clowns who in 2021 said "No new oil, gas or coal development is needed"

And in 2022, said "Global fossil fuel demand in 2030 would be 25% lower than today. Demand would then decline even more sharply; by 2050, it would be just 20% of current levels."

How wrong can you be? Forecast oil demand for 2030 is currently on target to increase by at least 10% from 2022 and, continue to grow to at least 2035 before hitting a plateaux for 5-10 years, according to the consensus of investment bank analysts that cover the sector - despite these same banks heavily cutting back investment in the sector for politically correct reasons!

[tim000] 12/6/2024 10:28

I see the IEA is claiming there will be a “staggering221; oversupply of oil by the end of the decade. The more green nonsense of this kind the better, anything that discourages investment in the industry can only be good for emerging producers such as AXL, AET etc.

[mount teide] 12/6/2024 09:38

Success with the CN Ubaque horizontal well programme at even 50% of the modelled production rate when combined with confirmation of the Oso Pardo license extension, would in my opinion offer shareholders the prospect of a very realistic 100p shareprice target at an average $75 Brent.

[king suarez] 12/6/2024 09:31

My critique of that simplified valuation, RR:

1) That's a pre-tax NPV, so sale price would be lower to reflect post tax.
2) You include nothing for annual sustaining capex.
3) There would be some kind of discount to NPV to attract a buyer.

[rockyride] 12/6/2024 09:19

Daily Production: 10,000 boepdAnnual Production: 3,650,000 boeMargin per Barrel: $50Annual Cash Flow: $182,500,0002P Reserves: 25 million boeDiscount Rate: 10%Years to Deplete Reserves: 6.85 yearsDiscount Factor: 1.921Present Value Factor: 0.479The Net Present Value (NPV) of the reserves is approximately $875 million, which accounts for the projected cash flows discounted over the period the reserves are expected to last. This NPV represents the estimated value of Arrow given its production, reserves, and no debt.So with 300m shares fully diluted we could be valued at 229p using fx of 1.27