Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[kirbs4] 29/6/2020 16:16

As positive as i may be personally about the prospects here, it is hardly a surprise that there has been a dip in share price today, one day until the end of the 6th month of MOU delay and no update, delayed results, plenty of short term opportunity elsewhere. Lets just hope they don't extend the MOU delay to 8 or 9 months tomorrow which some are clearly expecting.

[soulsauce] 29/6/2020 16:16

It would be a poor show to wait until tomorrow if it wasn't going to happen as surely would have been known for a while. The worst I can see is another delay but there has to be some more meat on the bones for investors.

[dixi] 29/6/2020 16:08

I think it is down due to selling by investors who are simply fed up/concerned with waiting. We don't even know who the JV partner is yet - so I doubt anything else is know by the 'market' at this juncture.

[bigglesbingham] 29/6/2020 16:06

The fall is a few small sellers bottling it. They may be right may be wrong but over long term dint really care.

[bigglesbingham] 29/6/2020 16:05

Well i could only get 125000 at 3.8 so stock tightly held .

[red imp] 29/6/2020 16:03

Down 7.5% on the day. Does the market know something we don't?

I'm starting to get a little nervous about tomorrow.

[jaf1948] 29/6/2020 14:12

actonovator,

You're probably right but it still takes some management time and effort to put an RNS together.

[actonovator] 29/6/2020 13:26

my understanding is most companies pay a flat fee and can issue as many RNS as they like

[kirbs4] 29/6/2020 13:20

I agree with you dixi, and i wont be selling, but i do think it would be reason for a sell off should the MOU be delayed for three months. That would be 9 months late, but more importantly with the volatolity around at the moment howuch would peoples money be worth after that three month waiting game if invested elsewhere is the question... I actually hope the fact there is still no mention of an MOU delay means that is still plabned to be finalised, i understand them needing to delay results, but they've already delayed the MOU.

[jaf1948] 29/6/2020 13:18

But if there is going to be a delay in MoU announcement, why not put it in the same RNS and save money if nothing else !

[dixi] 29/6/2020 13:08

In view of the explanation regarding the delay with the results, it would seem likely the same scenario will apply to the MoU.

I think that AAU could have been more timely with this, but then it does not equate to a reason for a sell-off either.

[claretandbluedave] 29/6/2020 13:06

Well there we have it. Extension for end of year results, and no news of our MOU.
Lets see what the market thinks of this now.

[dixi] 29/6/2020 13:05

Re the just announced delay with the results - I think that is fair enough and we are now in the picture in that respect.

[plasybryn] 29/6/2020 13:05

That RNS was expected and understandable.

[kirbs4] 29/6/2020 12:36

I do agree but am also realistic. As a long term holder sitting on an average buy price of under 2p i will be sticking around, but in todays world there are so many opportunities across the markets that it wont take too much for those who entered recently between 2.5/4p to jump ship if the company drop balls with communication/trust imo.

[1candc] 29/6/2020 11:58

The sales today when news is imminent on 2 fronts is indicative of how skittish some PI's are, the 'deadline' is tomorrow re JV announcement and even that is fluid, personally I would hate to be out or reducing my holding here prior to potentially ground breaking news.

[actonovator] 29/6/2020 11:44

yeah no need to worry too much what we think - we only own the company

[dixi] 29/6/2020 10:15

I don't expect that share price movements up or down on PI sentiment are too much of a worry to the BoD currently - that is more our concern.

[bigglesbingham] 29/6/2020 09:51

Think this increase was anticipated by the new potential partner and I'd assume they expect gold to go a hell of a lot higher. That's why I think the deal is going to go ahead but I don't think it will be renegotiated because the increase was built into everyone's expectations at the time.

[soulsauce] 29/6/2020 09:51

C word kirbs, I take it you mean communication but could also stand for credibility.

[kirbs4] 29/6/2020 09:44

All comes back to the c word. All the positivity behind this company is well known, so are the prospects, so is the fact their with or without JV we are sitting pretty.But in the same way that when we were down at 1.2p complaining that the fundamentals were so far detatched from reality, you can build trust by being open with communication and that has been an issue here in the past, whether it was a sufficient but not crystal clear rns, not selling the positives enough, taking shareholder feedback and hiring yellow jersey etc, it has been much better imo for around 2 years until April when they made what in my opinion was an amateurish error in waiting until the final day to announce a TWO month extension. I certainly felt a little sour at that point, and a bit taken for a ride. There is no way that even two weeks earlier they didnt know there would be a need for another extension given it was 2 months.This is my fear now too, that tomorrow they do the same thing. I have a feeling the share price will take a significant dip were thia to happen by thats just my opinion.

[1candc] 29/6/2020 09:38

Good post Plasybryn, when the MOU was announced on 25th November 2019 the gold price was $1,453 per ounce, today as we know it is $1,760 an uplift of $307 per ounce = 21% since the announcement, I imagine that is a compelling reason for the proposed partner to stay aboard and certainly strengthens AAU's hand in any negotiation.

[bigglesbingham] 29/6/2020 09:32

Absolutely but within the timescales promised. Ie end June. Don't get me wrong I'd have liked to know one way or other weeks ago but who knows what been discussed last week or even today?

[plasybryn] 29/6/2020 09:24

Forgive me, but I've been trying to think how Kerim might be seeing matters and why he might be relaxed time wise regarding our new prospective partner.
Let's say he expects gold to rise in value to c. $4000 per oz over the next few years. I certainly do. During that timescale he will increase production from the existing J.V.with the second mine at Tavsan coming on line in 2022 from 20,000 ozs p.a. to circa 50,000 ozs p.a. Could even be a bit more than that perhaps. That means 25,000 ozs for us. Let's take off say $700 per oz AISC (on the high side) and we have a profit of circa £2600 per oz ($4000-$700=$3300 coverts to £2671).
Multiple that by 25,000 and you have a bottom line profit of £65m. Divide that by the number of shares in issue, namely 1060m and you have EPS of 6p. You decide what multiple the valuation should be on, but Kerim has 19.56m shares so that's a fair wad. And that's before he develops the highly prospective Hot Gold Corridor which could easily double that wealth or more over the next decade. Then there is unknown Cyprus. Everyone is getting very bullish on copper with the electric revolution. As such at 44 years old I can see that he has time on his side and a very nice future mapped out. Basically he can afford to take his time to align outcomes with a positive re-rating of gold, silver & copper. I know Michael is 57, but perhaps he will be happy with nice dividend payouts.
I must admit Kerim is sitting in a very nice position. He has a brilliant future with the existing set up, but if he chooses to bring in the new partner and accelerate everything, he knows the timing of production in the Hot Gold Corridor will be aligned with high gold prices probably giving him more wealth and a great deal of credibility and status to go with it. Remember the RNS words. "J.V. capable of unlocking the full value of our assets in Turkey" - "become one of the premier gold mining companies operating in Turkey". At my age I hope he goes for the deal, but as we've all said we are in a win win situation here. Good luck

[dixi] 29/6/2020 09:08

Fair comment bb, but then telling their shareholders would not go amiss, that being the case.