Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[temujiin] 01/7/2020 09:52

Soulsauce,

I'm looking at the most likely scenario with the information to hand, AAU's cash income at Kizil is well known and established, Tasvan is highly likely (but not certain as nothing is) to be developed in approx timeframe given and will produce approx stated amount of gold. Of course there could be problems going forward with Tasvan, just as whatever venture KS gets involved in with £25m might turn out to be problematic.

Gold mining isn't risk free, but AAU's current set up looks much better than £25m for over half of our RR assets.

[tigerchris1] 01/7/2020 09:49

Tem... another way of putting it is that it is a very good deal for the new JV partners. I think we would all agree with that. AAU could have kept everything to itself, ploughed all the profits into developing Salinbas in which case we might have seen only modest returns for the next few years and then a possible significant boost 5 or 10 years down the line. In this case AAU could have been taking out loans and been under pressure for some years - Salanbas is a big project for a company of our size. I think that there is enough in Salinbas for us all to do very well. Deals are good when they work for everyone, I think that this one does, albeit we might have wanted even more.

[temujiin] 01/7/2020 09:46

Hi 8rad,

it probably will get voted through, which imo would be a longer term mistake, but that's democracy and rightly so.

Lottesgold, it did mention this in the original RNS,but its typically vague.
(AAU) 'be free-carried on further costs associated with the development of the Salinbas Project'.

Kaos3,
noted and thanks for the mention yesterday.

[soulsauce] 01/7/2020 09:37

Temujin I love how your assumptions never account for any problems that may occur.

Of course we could be throwing off all this cash, just as easily we could find Tavsan problematic or permitting may take it out a further year, they may hit some unforeseen issues at RR with the plant or Turkey might have another issue with the leadership or more war on it's borders.

The JV allows us less risk to anything from left field in Turkey, significantly increased exploration of Salinbas and move on the Cyprus targets expediently.

[kaos3] 01/7/2020 09:37

i wonder where Ks intimate focus is atm

[bigglesbingham] 01/7/2020 09:33

It could be argued that the world is exactly as they predicted

[8rad] 01/7/2020 09:30

Tem welcome back. "giving away too much for too little" sums up my assessment aswell but we know it will be voted through so must accept it and move on. No talk of any financial refiguring in the deal despite the world being slightly different from last November.

[dixi] 01/7/2020 09:22

Assuming the special dividend is going to go ahead too, current sellers are missing a trick here I feel. But each to their own I guess.

[lottsgold] 01/7/2020 09:16

I understand your point of view. I think there is a free carry on Salinbas to production but I'd have to re check that, if it is correct it is worth a lot more than the figures were first seeing. It also means our cost base will be minuscule and we can focus on the new assets outside the new JV. Kerim is bound to have something planned for the cash. Oh and the nice dividend will help the share price along which hopefully many of us will reinvest.I think things are going to accelerate very quickly here now..

[temujiin] 01/7/2020 09:06

The deal will, as KS says 'crystallise value for the company' and SH's.....but it does it at the cost of giving away over half of AAU's profitable mine. ATM the mine gives AAU a yearly gross profit after AISC deduction of approx £14m and a LOM of approx 8 years. 8 x 14 = £112m gross, pre tax.

The deal also gives away 50% of our ownership of Tasvan which can be ready within 2 years and will also throw off many £millions in profit every years.

AAU/KS wants to sell this for £25m.

Short term this should give the share price and investors /traders a smile as it should take the share price higher. However imo it's a poor deal for the company as it's giving away too much, for too little.

People will say but think what KS could do with a one of £25m. Well I'll say think what KS can do with a steady £10m every year rising to £20m for the next 8 years.

Özaltin are a good fit for the company, but the deal is a near sighted imo, and poor in the longer term than if we carried on as we are.

As for Salinbas, £5m plus a commitment to spend approx £15m for 76.5% doesn't look overly generous either.

All that said, AAU is a good solid profitable company, prospects either way are good, but imo, less so with this deal.

[uknighted] 01/7/2020 09:06

There are still a few formalities to be completed which is probably keeping the reins on the share price

[1candc] 01/7/2020 09:01

That almost sounds obscene

[charles clore] 01/7/2020 08:59

i reckon that gap is itching to be filled.

[1candc] 01/7/2020 08:59

Agree with that Donald, the usual pattern, strong opening followed by a wave of small sellers, then a pause as potential buyers see how low its going to go then committing in the afternoon.
For me the oscillations of the share price don't matter, what matters is the deal is in, it will be transformational to AAU in many ways and the company value will be on a rising trajectory from now on in no matter how many take profits along the way. I expect some new investors to become evident plus some more market makers to appear. This is a great day for the long termers and new strong supporters.

[donald pond] 01/7/2020 08:50

Seen this before with AAU, price strength tends to kick in later on. I remember the day we announced we'd beaten estimates by 20% and were marked down until around midday

[tigerchris1] 01/7/2020 08:49

Sells outnumbering the buys, but the sells are much smaller volume, still plenty of upward momentum through the day

[renniks2016] 01/7/2020 08:47

Yeah! we have regained losses on the week LOL oh no now below recent highs, wont be for long, there will be profit takers and tree shakers galore over the next few weeks, buying on the dips, still under my buy to 4.5 target so happy days because now no risk!

[charles clore] 01/7/2020 08:47

Should be 7p today

[thanksamillion] 01/7/2020 08:46

Gold near $1800, great deal, share price same place it was a month and a half ago ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

[bigglesbingham] 01/7/2020 08:45

Forget the shareprice and look a fundamentals the shareprice will follow remember October 18 this was 1.17p !!!

[charles clore] 01/7/2020 08:41

sells currently outnumbering buys wtf does this have to do to maintain upward momentum?

[someuwin] 01/7/2020 08:33

Buyers coming in...

[bigglesbingham] 01/7/2020 08:29

Just small traders playing on news . One way off investing but not mine

[lottsgold] 01/7/2020 08:27

Traders don't seem to like Ariana which means we don't get the insane moves. I'm happy with the way this is headed. Added another 250k now we know I'll add more along the way.