Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[backmarker] 01/7/2020 18:19

it's not clear to me that Nigel Somerville has any particularly compelling insights into either AAU or the gold market.

5p was my immediate target for AAU post confirmation of the deal, at least within the next month (and it fits nicely with the graph). I expected some weakness after that (following the next wave of Somerville top-slicers.

then I expect the share price to develop over the coming months and years as the JV gets into gear over Salinbas and Tavsan, as AAU begins work on its Cypriot assets, and with the influence of further rises in the PoG.

----------------------

of course, if we have a global outbreak of Modern Monetary Theory who knows what the future has in store.

on that note I shall close, and continue to listen to the wonderful brass music of Gabrieli while opening and drinking some excellent Italian Amarone.

[backmarker] 01/7/2020 18:04

there is no doubting that Özaltin will make an attractive and heavyweight partner, bringing clout and scale which will enable Salinbas to be developed more quickly; and with less financial strain and risk to AAU than it could manage on its own.

the Özaltin video looked most impressive and, without demeaning Proccea, their big earth-moving capabilities look to be enormous, witness the dam, etc.

clearly there is a price to be paid by AAU in giving up a hefty chunk of Salinbas. in particular the further earn-in payments by Özaltin seem quite modest when compared with any estimate of the future costs of developing Salinbas.

that said, other than selling Salinbas off in toto, this would seem the quickest route to unlocking value from Salinbas. and there is much more value to be had from dore bars in the hand (after mining and processing costs) than the equivalent micrograins of gold in the ground. it should take AAU into the "big league" in Turkey, and thus make AAU an altogether safer play in that country.

at the end of the day KS - and presumably Proccea come to that - are happy with the deal. that should tell us much of what we need to know.

[rumpus1] 01/7/2020 17:51

Also article on Shareprophets today from Nigel Somerville saying basically lots of gold price turbulence into and around 1800, so hold onto your hats. Ariana target now at least 5p.

[rumpus1] 01/7/2020 17:21

Ariana has just signed up to talk at Mineprophets. Thonk well worth 2.99 or whatever it is.

[soulsauce] 01/7/2020 17:14

Yes it's the delay with a conclusion scenario bigglesbingham and even was my guess so I will take that lol.

[bigglesbingham] 01/7/2020 17:09

Does today's announcement get classed as a delay? If so my 10% up o. Your level prediction looks ok ha ha.

[charles clore] 01/7/2020 15:51

They have a hefty delivery month ahead and the shorts need to keep the lid on the price!

[rumpus1] 01/7/2020 15:47

Soul, it seems to be a daily bloody ritual.

[soulsauce] 01/7/2020 15:35

Yanks battering PMs just for a change 😖

[mad foetus] 01/7/2020 14:10

I think also that Turkey isn't the easiest place to do business and having big partners means that while your slice of the pie is smaller, the security of the pie is much greater

[actonovator] 01/7/2020 14:03

Although I agree the finances of the deal are a tad underwhelming, for me the biggest plus is the instant diversification - as the company will no longer just have a mining assets in a single country (Turkey) but also have cash and further investment elsewhere, Cyprus to start - which is a lot healthier.

Where might the next news come from? From the last Venus rns:

"We look forward to seeing Venus commence with its maiden drilling programme in Cyprus on several of these projects once current restrictions on international travel are lifted", he added.

[plasybryn] 01/7/2020 13:46

I got Kerim's birthday date wrong. Sorry. Its the last day of July, not the 1st. By then he will no doubt have even more to celebrate.

[plasybryn] 01/7/2020 13:43

I'm also delighted that we are getting serious holders like Cowal to join the airwaves here. There is a great deal of positive alignment here and I'm pretty sure we all have high expectations for a transformational future. G.L. everyone.

[kirbs4] 01/7/2020 13:40

"Well we just about avoided the bid dipping below 4p" is not something I thought I would be able to write today.

[soulsauce] 01/7/2020 13:27

Lol very clever 1candc, I like that 😁

[1candc] 01/7/2020 13:24

Cowal, welcome but remember 'careless talk costs wives'

[soulsauce] 01/7/2020 12:27

Welcome Cowal. Excellent first post.

[run12] 01/7/2020 12:25

"I even shared the good news with my wife"
Steady on there - you do go too far sir.

[cowal] 01/7/2020 12:21

Hi guys, finally come out the woodwork. Held Aau shares for yrs (just under 2 million now) been a forum member for a yr, but never posted before, although a regular reader of this well informed chat.
After today’s announcement, I finally see light at the end of a very long tunnel and for anyone having any doubt about our new partner I suggest you watch The 9 min You tube corporate video Re Ozaltin holdings. These guys developing Salinbas would be like building a sandcastle compared to Their past and present projects.
I am finally so optimistic, I even shared the good news with my wife.
Happy future to all long time holders

[sonoftherock] 01/7/2020 11:38

A completely free carry of that sort sounds more like a royalty (and a stonking one at that). That would be nice. Let's see what details emerge.

[lottsgold] 01/7/2020 11:24

Yes agree I feel like this was the main reason for the deal looking so cheap. At that point 23.5% of the Salinbas project will be worth a lot more than our market cap and we don't have to worry about funding for the foreseeable. Ariana is now in an amazing position, looks like it's going to take a while to digest. I feel like i've found a golden goose!

[dixi] 01/7/2020 11:24

I'm expecting free-carried to mean what it implies, that AAU divest all but 23.5% of Salinbas and retain that proportion at zero further cost.

[sonoftherock] 01/7/2020 11:20

Thanks, Lottsgold. That's clearer to me at least. Not free carried to production but to project sanction maybe. If confirmed it's still a huge burden removed from Ariana's shoulders IMO. Makes more sense from the partner's point of view too - less of a blank cheque.

[bigglesbingham] 01/7/2020 11:20

I'm hopeful there will be a real-time agm whereby investors can ask questions directly rather than last time which was through a third party who didn't really understand the questions.