Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 08/5/2024 14:39

It might appear on paper to be the best deal in town but there are all sorts of risks associated with Zimbabwe (personal and corporate level) and we will be exposed to those over 3 perhaps 5 years before we see a profit. Surely the level of dilution and change to risk profile demands a Special Resolution.

[plasybryn] 08/5/2024 14:34

The annual inflation rate in Zimbabwe soared once again to 57.5% in April 2024, up from 55.3% in the previous month, largely due to the ongoing exchange-rate volatility. I know inflation is bad in Turkey also but the economy is far from stable.

[charles clore] 08/5/2024 14:33

Soul - sounds like you are a bit confused and trying to compensate by using weasel words. Let's lay our cards on the table shall we? I appreciate this doesn't give you much wriggle room, but In your opinion, is Kerim a) capable of pulling off a magnificent deal for shareholders with the Dokwe deal or b) a fraud, c) deluded or d) incompetent?

[plasybryn] 08/5/2024 14:31

Mr Mnangagwa was again re-elected in August 2023 in a poll that observers said did not meet local laws and global standards, gaining 52.6% of the valid votes cast.When he first became president, Mr Mnangagwa - known as "The Crocodile" for his ruthlessness - promised a new start for his country's people.But Zimbabwe is still struggling with high inflation and unemployment also remains rife. Mr Mnangagwa's vow to guarantee human rights also appears hollow, with little changing in this regard since Mr Mugabe's departure.

[soulsauce] 08/5/2024 13:43

🤣🤣🤣

[konil] 08/5/2024 13:40

soul, dont disturb me, i'm at lunch chewing on my pterodactyl wing, trying to fend off my 9 kids who all want some of it - bah!

[excellance] 08/5/2024 13:36

There is only two ways to grow mkt cap. Either increase the value of each share, or, increase the number of shares.

If AAU want to grow quickly then a deal like Dokwe is the way to go. Yes they'll issue shares like confetti but each of those shares should be worth considerably more.

In the meantime KS gets option shares at a reduced price and a bigger salary for his bigger role so he'll be ok. Win/Win.

[kaos3] 08/5/2024 13:26

Did anyone figure it out why we hurry with getting a merger? Not even the basic paper work done and we get the timing and ratios. As DD is irrelevant.

And i know for sure it is not a fine way how to export capital from Zimbabwe when it is possible.

Because they will have new currency soon. Their gold reserves backing the present currency are covering only months of their imports in international trade.

But it is not that as many oz miners are there so it is just fine.

[shortarm] 08/5/2024 13:24

D6's are warming up so quick question?Kerim has gone from overly cautious and careful to a naive gambler?Did you get any answers from non embittered loss makers?Oops, that was 2 questions!

[plasybryn] 08/5/2024 13:13

I asked a genuine question on the PREM BB about investing in Zimbabwe. This is the reply i got from one poster.AVOID. AVOID AND AVOID. Corruption at its best. Type in google and search most corrupt countries on the plant.I lost money on ASA Resources another Zimbabwe outfit. If you don't at least think about these issues, especially the ability to extract capital from the country, you are perhaps a bit naive and a pure gambler

[thanksamillion] 08/5/2024 13:10

Fair doos Soul, helps me understand better if I have context.

[soulsauce] 08/5/2024 12:59

Careful konil having thoughts like that you will be labelled a cave dweller 😉

[konil] 08/5/2024 12:57

nov31, yes that is a possibility, but not one the bulls want to hear. its just those with their fuddy duddy approach to risk i.e. the likes of me, that would even think about dilution.

we've already taken a 60% hit on our 23.5% share of good income producing assets should the deal proceed and in reality the only way further dilution will be avoided is if all the required capex is debt funded by aau, otherwise of course equity funding including asx listing and jv's etc will inevitably lead to dilution.

and if entirely debt funded by aau (if that were possible - it might not be because lenders may not go there) then of course aau becomes yet another tiddler with a huge debt overhang...guess what that leaves the door open to.

not worth thinking about, just think of the size of the operation and income, why bother with details like who will end up with the lion's share of it, or whether aau will even be around to see it.

its clear the mood is swinging towards the deal so it will get through.

[soulsauce] 08/5/2024 12:56

I still have my small holding Thanksamillion for fomo reasons only as i have been here that long but I have my reservations about the deal.

But whether I am a holder or not it is right to call out the idiotic commentary by Charles calling Lth's cave dwellers and yesterday having no vision because they have a different opinion.
At least I am consistent in my views.

[thanksamillion] 08/5/2024 12:46

Respect to you soulsauce, but why are you here, you surely ar'nt a holder are you?

[thanksamillion] 08/5/2024 12:43

Think proccea and Ozaltin have already decided they want in and they will provide the cash via AAU share issue to them, if that is the case then I suppose that would be the equivalent of them taking "percentage of output". Share issue might not be too painful to current AAU holders as the company already holds a nice wad of cash and there should be more in coming years from Turkish operations, which could be used to help fund the build.

[shortarm] 08/5/2024 12:32

Like:
'we sold half of Kiziltepe and Tavsan'- not possible as we only owned half to start with.
Like:
60& diltion, hang on? AAU end with woth 63% so I had a 100 quid and now I have 63 quid and that is 60% dilution?
I am just way too optimistic for this, Bank Hols here tomorrow so see ya at 3p :-)

[shortarm] 08/5/2024 12:25

Further massive dilution eh?

[nov31] 08/5/2024 12:07

Shortarm 24445: I don't think AAU direct are going to keep 100k oz out of 100k oz annual production from Dokwe when it starts producing in 5 years plus - I expect a deal with Proccea ((and/or Ozaltin) especially for the former's expertise and financial contribution in building the mine at Dokwe in which Proccea takes a percentage of the output. However, if a deal isn't done with Proccea then it maybe further massive dilution via ASX to raise the monies necessary for AAU to build it themselves.

[charles clore] 08/5/2024 11:08

Still one or two cave dwellers around here I see. Do some people really think Kerim, a PhD in mining and metallurgy, founder of Ariana, is stupid enough to give away the company's valuable assets for nothing? So please tell me, who is holding his arm behind his back this time?

[kaos3] 08/5/2024 10:39

Small detail

to be so it has to remain so

[shortarm] 08/5/2024 10:24

Salinbas target production has always been 50k Pa giving AAU 11750, Dokwe is about nine times as much direct to AAU

[temujiin] 08/5/2024 10:18

The merger with the Dokwe debate is a re-run of Ozaltin JV. AAU and shareholders would probably have been better off without the deal, and now pocketing 50% of the gold produced not 23.5%.

AAU were and are a good company with good assets despite the JV, but it wasn't the right decision, imo.

Dokwe on paper is a great asset, and in 4 years maybe, it will produce a good profit for AAU, but is it good for AAU shareholders now? the share price now, or in the next 2 or 3 years? probably not, imo.

AAU has great potential with Salinbas etc, but management seem more interested in potential and marketcap, not on the current share price and shareholder value.

[bigglesbingham] 08/5/2024 10:06

That's a buy look at time