Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[sharenotes] 03/5/2024 12:40

“We view the Dokwe acquisition as a low-risk and value-additive purchase. Where else can you find a +1Moz gold deposit for a purchase price of less than $15/oz defined to a mine plan, which is comparable to Ariana’s own discovery cost? There are risks associated with the plan yes, but ones we believe can be overcome, especially with access to Rockover’s existing management team who have been successfully operating in country for over two decades. We make no change to our fair value of 5.5p today but note that we expect that once the new PFS results are published, that we will have to move our fair value upwards.”

Phew – we can all rest easy now!

[excellance] 03/5/2024 12:36

We all knew that Kiziltepe was near end of life, and we are lucky to get another ten years due to higher gold prices.

The satellite mines ore will be blended in to keep grades similar to historic levels but they need to transport it, 150km round trip!

I think Kiziltepe is marginally profitable at $2000 per ounce, so AAU financials are risky for a year more until other mines can ramp up.

Hence 2p

[dixi] 03/5/2024 12:09

The presentation currently on Ariana's website states about Tavsan:-"Production of c. 30,000 oz per annum over 8 year mine life, with further potential for enhancement."-WHI and PG coverage is now on the website to download regarding Rockover.

[soulsauce] 03/5/2024 12:02

Seems some contradiction there xow.

[xow98] 03/5/2024 11:57

Page 14 of Presentation seems to suggest ~15k from each of Kizil and Tavsan in 2024, 10k from Kizil and ~28k from Tavsan in 2025.

[bigglesbingham] 03/5/2024 11:34

Kavango. They thought it was too complex for Zimbabwe. They have a market cap of £5.4m. Read into that what you will. But with no producing assets etc rock would be in same boat as the are now. One of the reassuring answers was the gold looks straight forward to mine. So I think the KAV deal was never going through and turney from Kav was trying to put their spin on it. But we will never know

[thanksamillion] 03/5/2024 10:46

Not proceeding can also be the decision of the owner as well as the potential purchaser.

[kaos3] 03/5/2024 10:29

Steven Poulton received his undergraduate degree from The University of Southampton in 1997....

Study his trail if interested

And btw

Kerim graduated from the University of Southampton with a first-class BSc (Hons) degree in Geology in 1997....

[xow98] 03/5/2024 10:23

Communications with shareholders are maintained in line with the regulations and will continue to be maintained in that manner. As the company grows, we may manage this process in-house and employ people to act as our liaison with the market more broadly.

[shortarm] 03/5/2024 10:22

For those that are interested in the future of Ariana check out Caledonia mining with its 17000oz first quarter production and MCAP of 157 million according to LSE.

[dixi] 03/5/2024 09:57

Does anybody know who the other entities were that looked at Dokwe but chose not to proceed? My searching hasn't come up with anything so far.

[sharenotes] 03/5/2024 09:30

The attraction of Dokwe possibly could be summed up with the observation that Ariana is ‘buying’ ounces through the merger process at approximately the same cost as Ariana’s historical discovery cost per ounce, whilst circumventing the 20 years of exploration time required to identify the 1.3M ounces. The merger will also lead to augmenting the board.

Neither Kerim or Michael are wet behind the ears regarding extensive experience of Zimbabwe and therefore their view on the inherent country risks has to be duly noted. It would be useful for shareholders however, if they would provide further details on said experience and why they don’t think this is a significant issue. In part, the international mining presence successfully operating in Zimbabwe would seem to support their collective viewpoint.

So, we have the debt, dilution, dividend, share price dilemma that has to be set against the risk/reward. This aspect of the deal needs some major input from the board or the ‘fear’ in the shareholder community will not abate. Let’s hope they take this issue very seriously indeed.

[kirbs4] 03/5/2024 09:23

Its easy to get buried in details and spin at times like this, but in the absence of any form of correspondence around shareholder value and what the next few years will look like through the lens of a shareholder it's really easy to retain clarity here. AAU was already a lock away and come back in a few years play but we were approaching some significant milestones in that, now it could be another 5 years or more. Even as a 42 year old it's not hard to know there will be better options out there in that timeframe with far less risk and more focus on creating value for shareholders.The message that comes across for me most is they know this and don't care, perhaps it's even their plan. Admittedly I was in a comfy position having been playing with pure profit, was lucky enough to get in around 1p and take out my initial investment, but it's a shame management are so poor at managing shareholders and shareholder value here because fundamentally they are managing something special.

[5huu] 03/5/2024 09:23

My view may be slightly different to others. Whilst I understand the risks around funding, jurisdiction, delays to permitting, etc. I do feel that this is significant opportunity for Ariana to make the leap away from an under the radar, slow and steady small cap.I have always maintained that Ariana and their partners are excellent at finding developing and producing gold and silver, therefore, and I believe firmly that they will do the same at Dowke including growing the reserve and mine life significantly. Using trusted well known partners is good news for me too. Looking at the state of the global economy and where gold is possibly heading, then moving at pace to secure such a reserve could be seen as prudent. The problem I've always had is that they have never been able to make Arianna a compelling investment proposition. However, this deal along with the dual listing could put an end to that and finally attract a range of equity investors.

[dixi] 03/5/2024 09:05

As for the woeful share price performance, it is interesting to read that they suggest trading the company's shares would have been much more beneficial. More the fool long term supporters then.

[bodgit] 03/5/2024 08:58

Fwiw, I'm pleased that there is on the table the prospect of a new opportunity for AAU. That said, I'm not hopeful I will live long enough to see Dokwe deliver AAU shareholder returns worthy of the risk but my grandchildren should benefit. You have to speculate to accumulate... Sub 2p on the current bid price looks possible. Hmmmm. Gla.

[shortarm] 03/5/2024 08:47

Our statement specifically referred to our intention to dual-list. The proposed ASX dual-listing will diversify our access to different pools of capital. The AIM listing will be maintained and, for existing UK investors there will be absolutely no change to their ability to trade their shares. If anything, having more eyes following the stock in two markets should lead to an increase in liquidity and pricing better reflecting the fact we have an essentially free carry operation in Turkey, earning dividends, complemented by a major project in a new jurisdiction with significant potential for resource growth.

[soulsauce] 03/5/2024 08:41

Yes JD we all wanted Ariana with attitude back but we haven't got that. We have Ariana that has rolled over and had it's belly tickled by the Rockover holders.
You are getting massively diluted, less eps for an unknown length of time and a much increased risk profile.
Where was the attitude when we could have used our huge cash deposit, at the time to get Apliki up and running.

[kaos3] 03/5/2024 08:38

Wow. I have thought the presentation and debate will be around facts and not opinions.

Collective hard data provided by AAU.

As i have min shares long term i do not bother to do the work. Plus i only work now from a min phone screen.

But intuition tells me it would be extremly telling comparing actual jorc, probable and possible ounces of both companies to get the only normal and fair perspective.

Adjust for all kinds of risks later

I like it, i like it not lol

[dodie1] 03/5/2024 08:33

You illustrate their comms problem very well Konil. They did answer the issue of worries about Zimbabwe, I'd put a question on those too, but clearly not enough to stop you and others feeling it was a high risk jurisdiction. I was reassured by KS's reference to the difference between the mining companies and previous farm acquisitions, but the fact he didn't understand how much that would worry shareholders is significant. I actually think they have done very well in juggling difficult politics in the past, and I see no reason why they shouldn't continue to do so, but they are not good enough at reading the shareholder room. If he wants to grow AAU to a medium sized Co then he must stop being so much of a 'jack of all trades' and get help with the comms.

[xow98] 03/5/2024 08:28

However, permitting, financing and environmental requirements post-feasibility could all have an impact on an otherwise possible technical timeline. Like all of the other projects we have been involved in, we will have to manage the requirements and demands of the Dokwe project and its development pathway based on various factors, many of which are not in our control.

[jaynesdad] 03/5/2024 08:27

Like many here I am very uncertain, and even have feelings of guilt, about what I feel about this development.
Guilt because for ages we have bemoaned the lack of bold action, criticised the lack of progress and attitude. Maybe we didn't want it as much as we thought.
Like Konil, who expressed the situation better than I can, the change in risk profile is pretty terrifying. AAU was safe, boring even, but this latest venture is I suspect going to end very, very well or very, very badly. Many of us here are over invested as a result of the cosy risk/ reward profile that we have become accustomed to. The level of capital investment required here, and how it is to be achieved, needs far more information before I can vote in favour for this. ideally I would like a JV partner lined up. KS talked yesterday of likely capital investment amounting to over twice the current Market Cap at a time of the highest interest rates in decades.
To be a drama queen Dokwe could make us very rich. It could also potentially wipe this company out. How many here are young enough to take the risk of the latter?