Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[xow98] 01/4/2024 16:50

konil, as CEO he has the responsibility to promote the company by issuing sensible production forecasts, not trying to be a hero when he outperforms reidculously low forecasts while shareholders watch the share price underperform for 11 months of the year.

40k only gets us back to where we were at the end of 2019, ie. 9.4k attributable oz, 14m GP and the 25m m cap.

You could say we are already valued on 40k oz, so unless he forecasts greater than 40k the share price isn't going anywhere and if he forecasts less the share price should fall.

[xow98] 01/4/2024 16:42

Turkey President Erdogan suffers worst electoral defeat in two decades

The main opposition, the Republican People's Party, won the Istanbul and Ankara mayoral elections, as well as the municipalities of 36 of Turkey's 81 provinces.

[soulsauce] 01/4/2024 11:22

LOL Charles, I hope you are right.

[charles clore] 01/4/2024 10:57

Soul - I think Kerim just wants to surprise us with a blockbuster announcement - in due course of course.

[konil] 01/4/2024 10:48

xow98, its clear the 25k production figure was just a 'nominal' number and rather poorly communicated.

given the substance reported around the various results from drilling and forward plans being considered at kizil and tavsan, its a fair bet total production will likely be between 40k and 60k once tavsan is fully operational with perhaps 15k to 20k of that total from kizil (including ore from tavsan processed at kizil).

[xow98] 01/4/2024 10:36

Not sure about that. Pre-JV v Post JV

.................................Dec 2019..............Dec 2023/Mar 2024

M. Cap.............................25.4m.................25.8m...(Current)
EV was............................ 24.9m.................21.3m...(Current)
Production.........................28.0k.................17.7k...(17 Jan 24 RNS)
Attributable Prodn (50% v 23.5%).....14k..................4.2k
Gold Price.........................1,515.................2,260...(Current)
Cash Cost............................507...................650...(Dec 2022 AFS, so probably higher now)
Attributable GP....................14.1m..................6.7m...(Current)

If we assume ave gold price of 2,200 and cash cost of 700 then we would need production of almost 40k oz to get back to Dec 2019 gross profit and a M. cap of 25m.

The current "nominal 25k" doesn't cut it:

Attributable GP 25k x 23.5% x (2,200 - 700) = 8.8m.

Happy to update if you pick up any errors in the above.

[soulsauce] 01/4/2024 09:58

AAU 'should' be due a rerating on the gold price but while ever the company continues to hold it's light under a bushel then it is less likely.

The company should be making hay now and pushing that we are on the cusp of a second mine with lots of PR and not delivering rns like last week where people are left perplexed as to it's absolute meaning.

[thanksamillion] 01/4/2024 09:35

Personal interest payments exceed wages by a large margin. The last time debt payments surpassed wages were ahead of the 2008 financial crisis.


Source -

[thanksamillion] 01/4/2024 09:29

March 19th,....Goldman Sachs has just updated their year-end gold target to $2,300. And suggested that the move will re-activate 'dormant ETF buying.'


AAU must be due a re-rating, purely on the Gold price alone.

[soulsauce] 01/4/2024 08:49

😉👍

[xow98] 31/3/2024 13:03

MinerDeck
@MinerDeck
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Metals: weekly price & performance

[xow98] 30/3/2024 21:54

Traders bet on supply squeeze pushing up copper prices

[xow98] 30/3/2024 13:02

Smaller roundup than the round down

[bigglesbingham] 30/3/2024 10:42

I must have rounded up ha ha

[xow98] 30/3/2024 08:56

Metals & Mining Tracker
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Weekly UK Metals & Mining Movers

[thanksamillion] 30/3/2024 08:22

Believe it or not some on here live in La La land.

Of course it says it bought at the very bottom, how else does one pretend to be better than all of Thou.

[xow98] 30/3/2024 06:54

1.575 on the 20th Feb

[bigglesbingham] 30/3/2024 00:26

The price never got to 1.5 I thought lowest was 1.6 when I added ??

[soulsauce] 29/3/2024 19:31

Back from the twilight zone Shortarm, it may have been sold was my thinking but I understand my thoughts are less dramatic and less fantastical 🤷‍a94;️

[shortarm] 29/3/2024 19:25

Beware of the darkside, poison you it will..

[shortarm] 29/3/2024 19:24

It melted? Disappeared? Evaporated? It just left of its own violation?

[soulsauce] 29/3/2024 17:45

Yep if they still have it Shortarm 🤷‍a94;️

[shortarm] 29/3/2024 16:36

They bought gold with it as it is treated differently for tax. Seems like a good decision right now?

[soulsauce] 29/3/2024 16:09

No konil what I am saying is at the last count there was unexpectedly less than one would have thought, although some figure needed to be given to the gold they had accumulated.

I remember folk at the time saying how much cash 😖 where's all that gone 🤷‍a94;️