Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[dixi] 28/3/2024 13:05

If nothing else yesterday's report has stopped this stone-dead, which in the face of a rising gold price is just ridiculous. Contempt towards shareholders.

[soulsauce] 28/3/2024 13:03

Not just the chemistry but the financials doinuthing. I am assuming the plan is to blend the high grade ore with the lower grade stuff at kiz to make production more efficient.

[doinnuthing] 28/3/2024 12:41

Here is something to think about. If you are sending full trucks to Kiziltepe with high grade ore for processing how about refilling them with ore from Kiziltepe which is too low a grade for Kiziltepe but suitable for heap leech at Tavsan? (if the chemistry works.

[sharenotes] 28/3/2024 12:26

No one is expecting hyperbole but because of the comfortable position Kerim now finds himself in, he may have forgotten what his ultimate responsibly is – the shareholders! Part of that responsibly is ensuring the share price reflects true value. Rather, a very conservative approach ensures that Kerim won’t be shaken from his comfort zone any time soon but, by doing so, shareholders have to put up with a very conservative share price.

[xow98] 28/3/2024 11:29

Some would say his job is to promote the company, not issue ridiculously low forecasts so that he can look good when he beats them.

How is the share price going to rise with communication like this? The market operates on a "look forward" / forward PE basis and if he doesn't understand that then he should stick to being a geologist and let somebody else market the company.

[bigglesbingham] 28/3/2024 11:26

I keep saying this but I prefer operationally prudent proven company to have such a large investment in than a company say like hummingbird , chesterfield resources to name but two who promise the earth but don't deliver. Yes I would have worded rns differently but I'm not contained by rules regarding over optimistic projections etc. if the shareprice was say 4p now there would have been significantly less negativity surrounding the rns and I think this is because we need something to rerate the stock and ultra conservative predictions ain't going to do that.

[bigglesbingham] 28/3/2024 11:22

For what it's worth my take is as follows. The results from tarsvan have been exceptional and the reserves (effectively guaranteed) are 250k oz and this equates to an average of 25K per annum over ten years. We know the capacity at tarsvan is 30 k oz and kiz 25k oz. Kerim in the interview said we could do more than the 25k. The higher grade better to be trucked to kiz cos of higher percentage and this was what was discussed when I visited mine five yrs ago. The trucking won't impact on tarsvan production. However KS doesn't want to commit to annual prod at minute because heap leach takes time. So rather than commit to figure of say 45k (which he did expect when I spoke to him one to one at investor pres in Nov) he would rather explain nominal figure of 25k which is guaranteed but doesn't reflect actual because currently it's impossible to predict. Some would say prudent ,some over conservative but that's my take.

[masterg1] 28/3/2024 10:21

WH Ireland and PG maintain their buy rating at 5.5p and 5.49p dated same day as RNS date 26/03/24 and now available on the website. Not much there, just a short read form your own opinions.

[soulsauce] 28/3/2024 10:08

Completely agree xow and going on previous Q&As they just look so unprofessional and all they have done is show the complete disconnect between Chairman and CEO. You would think at least given they get the majority of questions beforehand they would have coordinated their answers instead of looking totally unprepared and uninterested.

[sharenotes] 28/3/2024 09:45

We seem to be dealing here with ‘Kerim’s uncertainty principle.’ There are indeed a spectrum of interpretations and one being that the analyst’s note is ‘out to lunch’ (at our expense) and 25,000 oz per annum is the target. Let’s hope when (if) Kerim diminishes the uncertainty we find ourselves ensconced in a more profitable location in the spectrum!

[dixi] 28/3/2024 09:02

The resource stands at 483k oz gold from combined entities (presumably). So however you carve up what KS has stated, the reserve is derived from this figure. So it really has to mean 25k oz combined. I've tried to read every which way into this to try to understand better what is being said. But it's next to impossible without official clarification. They're playing with shareholders here I feel.

[zangdook] 28/3/2024 09:02

If there's something unclear in an RNS then 'wait and ask someone else later' is completely unacceptable. If YJ are being paid to handle investor enquiries they need to get an answer to the question.

[actonovator] 28/3/2024 09:02

My feeling is the last rns should have been 2 or 3 rns instead. Perhaps
1. Update on Tavsan construction incl distinction between low and high grade and the issue of trucking
2. Revised Tavsan reserves
3. Talk of 25000 left to the production guidance rns.

But this is symptomatic of a general dearth of rns over the last 2 years or so.

[konil] 28/3/2024 08:58

thanks for the link renniks.

it is as many on here thought...i.e. 25,000 is really an arbitary nominal number. however, ks unwilling to suggest probable actual numbers. if they continue with original plans then 30,000 from tavsan looks base case because with tavsan ore being processed at two locations its likely they will comfortably exceed that. the kizil output is less clear, the results at kizil and also at satellite locations suggest the resource will continue to grow with ongoing drilling, so the remaining mine life there (excluding tavsan ore) could likely exceed the current expectations by some years but ks playing that even more cagily.

lack of detail aside its clear that the results have transformed the way aau are now considering the ore bodies, especially with further drilling to come to test the high grade intercepts at tavsan. should that confirm their modelling there will be another large resource uplift in time.

strategically this secures cashflow for aau for 10 years and quite likely longer. stab in the dark i'd say we could see 35k from tavsan across the two processing sites and 15k ongoing from kizil and satellites. so twice the nominal number suggested, approaching 3-fold increase on current production.

that provides plenty of cash to progress the other projects and perhaps a regular dividend. i'd like to think the divi would start q2/q3 2025.

now, what's happening elsewhwere in the aau portfolio? who knows but until its confirmed differently i still reckon ks is lining up dokwe for a sale followed by a special divi.

[kaos3] 28/3/2024 08:52

Could it be Kerim thinks we understand that.

spot on

[plasybryn] 28/3/2024 08:50

Why can't we get the Co to clarify the numbers? It is a simple question and should be a simple answer. But YJ block it and tell us to wait for the Investor Meet Co. event. That isn't acceptable for something so potentially misleading and impactful on profitability. You big shareholders should demand a proper reply in my opinion.

[plasybryn] 28/3/2024 08:45

I just wonder , and this would make my day, if the 25000 ozs pa just relates to production throughput at Kiziltepe. Is it possible that Kerim hasn't wanted to even postulate the heap leach output from Tavsan until it construction is further advanced. And now he wants to process higher grade ore from Tavsan via Kiziltepe so that will reduce the 30000 oz pa target further, but increase what we were expecting from the run off (c.15000 ozs perhaps) at Kiziltepe. Could it be Kerim thinks we understand that.

[dixi] 28/3/2024 08:41

Whatever the word jumble, surely KS must understand that stating the combined mines offer 25k oz (nominal) over 10 years sounds miles away from their quoted 30k oz for Tavsan alone. So we now await guidance on production, I sincerely hope that does not quote the 25k oz combined again.

[plasybryn] 28/3/2024 08:36

Sounds like WTR continue to fire on all cylinders. Well done Mentor & Newmont. Kerim actual managed a smile when he got the chance to discuss the potential new high grade ore intrusions at Tavsan. You can see what interests him.

[bigglesbingham] 28/3/2024 08:34

In the interview he states could be higher production but doesn't want to commit obviously so they can say we've outperformed the 25k Oz target. Taking conservatism to a different level. The results are excellent but another opportunity missed to sell the company to new investors I feel. Underpins the current price and certainly with my shareholding I prefer comfortable than backing over promising companies but definitely an opportunity lost and the analyst notes which mention 30k tarsvan and 25K Kiz production must be asking questions.

[plasybryn] 28/3/2024 08:33

What is the throughput capacity of the Kiziltepe CIL facility using exist Ball Mills I wonder? Just 2 Mills currently i believe.