Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[5huu] 20/1/2024 23:46

Yes I possibly was JD, but the point I was making is that Ariana just can't attract new investors. Sadly.

[plasybryn] 20/1/2024 14:19

Love this Jayne. Reinstate the Gantt Chart. Simple.I want to see firm direction and a believable road map for other projects too.

[xow98] 20/1/2024 14:09

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[konil] 20/1/2024 11:14

plasybryn, 21855, i share your frustration but as regards aau performance the last 4 years have seen a lot of external turmoil (covid and global unrest/war). those are no small things to navigate a company through especially a tiddler.

the big let downs have been the big delay on tavsan and the disappearance of apliki. i'm guessing the progress or lack of it at tavsan will have been mostly in proccea's hands to manage and probably hamstrung by covid and the recent court challenge, not aau. the aplilki deal is a mystery and its not good enough that aau have not really explained it - but maybe that is because aau still has hopes for it and doesnt want to expose its hand.

mining sector sentiment has not been good but imo it is tavsan and apliki that have been the major contributors to the decline in share price tavsan will soon be remedied.

the strategy to shed some percentage of the turkey assets to a large indigenous entity was a good one, bringing in cash and providing some political cover. it was a good move for those reasons alone but with hindsight also a lucky move and essential for survival given what came during and after(covid/war).

all the other stuff (i.e. salinbas / new projects) was always many years away, as expected in mining. the strategy to divesify with small stakes in selected early stage entities (enabled with cash from sale to ozaltin) is fantastic for an investor like me, as i would never have a chance in participating in those until much later in their development. sure some may fail but it only needs one to come good - but have to accept it will be some time away unless they can monetise one quickly with a sale after value add.

that leaves...

- mdv's role
- aau's pr record

neither of these are optimal but neither are enough to explain the fall in the share price from 5/6p to 2p which i reckon is better explained as above.

the big ongoing risk is keyman risk.

in summary, for a tiddler aau are doing ok.
i like the strategy and i'm very much looking forward to start of production at tavsan, preferably accompanied by a turn in mining sentiment and a run up in pog, to see aau at 8p in short order.

[jaynesdad] 20/1/2024 11:13

I think you are being a bit pessimistic saying 0.5p in a heartbeat. At the last accounts net assets were over 2.3p and the cash position the best part of 1p per share.
Yes the market isn't always logical and I agree with the poster I read who said few of the SVE holders had sold yet as many sales were round thousands.
Its a bit soul destroying (not you Soul) but it could slip further. The market isn't always logical especially when the shareholder profile is largely PIs. Really hope that there are no more slippages in timescales but AAU doesn't have a good record there. Be great if there was around 6k from Tavsan this year and say 20-25k the following year after ramp up. A 23.5% share of that has to lift the share price far from this level. I want to see firm direction and a believable road map for other projects too.

[5huu] 20/1/2024 00:09

It's a new broker for me. AAU is on the whole, a well run competent exploration company, but very clearly it isn't demonstrating a compelling investment case. The share price is evidence of that. That's where they need to do better. If us lot decided to bail (or the heavyweight holders here), it would be sub 0.5p in a heartbeat.

[xow98] 19/1/2024 21:56

Charles, perhaps a new CEO and no Chairman. Works for me.

Current Chairman is hardly an independent chair. Or perhaps just a new Chairman.

[dodie1] 19/1/2024 20:45

I absolutely agree with Soul that a few Director buys would help atm. At some point I think this share will turn quickly but timing is tricky, particularly when I think Kerim is taking a 'long' view. It is frustrating but there is a reason why time management in the eastern Mediterranean is different to here. On the plus side the Turks want gold so there is motivation to get on. Let's hope we'll see action soon.

[charles clore] 19/1/2024 20:18

Can't argue with most of that Plas. But I don't think AAU could afford a CEO as well as a technical director. Besides, I guess they believe they have both in Kerim at the moment!

[soulsauce] 19/1/2024 17:06

Plasybryn 👏👏👏

A few director buys wouldn't go amiss now.

[plasybryn] 19/1/2024 16:49

I think many of us have been worried about the strategy, especially as four years have drifted away since the dilution of assets. And I keep asking myself, what is there that is tangible to see for it? Has the new strategy played out as they expected? I would love to know? The market would love to know. Look at the share price chart.The market hasn't bought it.
Where is the acceleration we were promised? Wasn't the cash raised from the dilution supposed to facilitate that?
I almost get the impression that the Board were becoming bored with the core cash producing assets like Kiziltepe,( Kepez & Kizilcukur) Tavsan, Salinbas/Ardale, Hizarliyayla and starting to move their eye off the ball towards unproven, higher risk assets like Kosovo, Venus Minerals, Project Leopard, Asgard investments (Panther Metals, Pallas Resources & Annamite Resources) and now Rockover Holdings, Zimbabwe.
Investors have shown amazing levels of trust in Kerim although some think he would be better as a Technical Director with a more Corporate CEO at the helm. I don't know what MdV has achieved. Chris Sangster appears to be supporting the WTR efforts of Mentor (hopefully good long term value being created) and of course we have a part-time Finance director in William Payne, who I doubt adds much value above that. The strategy and its implementation seems to be in the hands of Kerim with no one strong enough to challenge him or question the direction or lack of progress.
If they get some good results from Hizarliyayla and can then monetise that asset, I'm sure we will all become very happy & positive, but the latest Update this week hardly wets the appetite for something exciting on the horizon.
Kerim will do another video or Investor chat soon and will bluff his way through with investors making allowances as usual until weeks later they realise it was all words and delays.
Come on you guys who understand and support the strategy, please communicate some confidence as to how it is going to play out, as I was left underwhelmed by the RNS this week, and just when our friends from Starvest arrive with their AAU shares looking to be convinced this will be a growth & income share in short order.

[xow98] 19/1/2024 15:31

You may be correct dodie1.

Unfortunately, people were saying this was undervalued 2 years ago when the price was over 4.

Hopefully this time...

[dodie1] 19/1/2024 15:02

I'm still adding steady small amounts but I'm amazed to have got some more under 2p. The fundamentals still look good to me and I think this is way undervalued given that Tavsan should be in production in less than a year.

[konil] 19/1/2024 14:53

soul, my point is we dont know the full extent of opposition to mdv because we dont get the total numbers just those they use (votes from meeting attendees for example). i say again, not entirely clear to me. i did look at it some time ago but not spending time doing it again.

shortarm seems to think its covers all votes, so i guess i've misunderstood something along the way.

[jaf1948] 19/1/2024 13:35

This isn't really rocket science. The company all but told us in the RNS that there were unlikely to be any quick hits in 2024 so not surprisingly some investors have thought now is the time to get out and maybe come back in later (or not).

[soulsauce] 19/1/2024 13:12

Another 1m just gone.

[charles clore] 19/1/2024 13:08

Z - that's why it was called a special dividend. I'd rather have that than nothing at all returned to shareholders

[zangdook] 19/1/2024 13:06

"rather than hope the discount was made up which it obviously wasn't."

Certainly the SVE discount has disappeared.

The bet was that they would end up with either the value reflected in SVE or with the underlying GGP shares, and they did - the bet paid off. It was also a bet that GGP would maintain its value while they were waiting, I don't know if that side of it paid off - it looked overvalued to me so I held back.

It's just like people might buy in here for the Turkish assets. Cyprus and Kosovo are really not significant as yet, and may come to nothing. If we were given Venus shares as a dividend in specie at the IPO some holders might dump them.

[soulsauce] 19/1/2024 12:44

You could be right konil, who knows but he is pretty much unopposed.
But it wouldn't come to that if Ariana maintained a better corporate governance.

[shortarm] 19/1/2024 12:42

Exact figures were announced!

[shortarm] 19/1/2024 12:33

If you overlay the three year chart form GGP with AAU you will see that - oh, never mind....

[shortarm] 19/1/2024 12:31

GGP is a great company! Long love GGP :-D(Cheap too)

[soulsauce] 19/1/2024 12:30

GGP going north funnily enough.

[soulsauce] 19/1/2024 12:23

There might have been a discount but there invariably is in such companies who most of the time trade at a discount to NAV.
I think most investors would buy in the company itself rather than hope the discount was made up which it obviously wasn't.