Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 23/7/2021 13:42

Succession planning/ Keyman/ independent Non Executive Director/ Business Dev. Director: think it is a very valid question to put to the AGM on 18th August. I wonder if there are any other Corporate issues that need to be raised? I suppose share buy backs and share consolidation where covered this week. I would still like to see a proper Gantt chart and a clear statement of our Vision , goals and strategies.. Not adequately covered in the AR&A's.

[plasybryn] 23/7/2021 13:27

Totally agree re succession planning. I've been advocating for some time they need a new independent non executive director to represent shareholders and or perhaps a Director responsible for Business Development (Institutional liaison) and shareholder communication. The latest interview with Kerim by Andrew (earlier this week) had him saying as the Co had matured there was Institutional interest developing.

[thanksamillion] 23/7/2021 12:43

10p a share, that'll be around February then. ;-)

[konil] 23/7/2021 12:43

carcosa, agree but take issue with one point...

"Since AAU have just agreed to bung shareholders with a wad of cash then clearly there is nothing on the horizon for AAU to get their teeth into to warrant a cash raise."

for a company with a bod the size of aau, and essentially one man driving the agenda, there is a limit to how many things can sensibly be taken on and some would argue ks is already spread quite thin so further projects become untenable. in such a situation it is often good practice to reward shareholders where there is surplus cash reserve. (better than squandering cash on vanity projects as some companies do.)

this brings me to what i see as a big risk for aau and given that aau's attributes mitigate most other risks, imo this is currently the biggest risk, i.e. keyman risk, if ks becomes unable to execute his duties for aau the company will have an existential problem. they should be looking to augment the bod with executive personnel to reduce this risk, they have the cash for additional salary bills but the difficulty is finding the right skills together with correct personality fit with existing bod.



as regards insti placing i agree your points but just mention that if aau do a placing north of current share price then it is not dilutive.
is it likely to happen? don't know, probably not.
does it ever happen? yes.

[carcosa] 23/7/2021 12:15

This subject comes around yet again. Intuitional Interest

I just don't see any financial intuitional interest happening until the market cap is north of 100m. At current market cap values its not worth any of them getting out of bed for it.

PI's bemoaned the fact of dilution quite a while back and your company sought to stop going back to the markets as soon as practical to do so. As has been mentioned by the company if an institution wants a look in then new shares/dilution will have to happen. Since AAU have just agreed to bung shareholders with a wad of cash then clearly there is nothing on the horizon for AAU to get their teeth into to warrant a cash raise.

But this is where having close contacts with PG can pay off handsomely albeit potentially months to years away... if one of PG's existing clients wants to 'do something' then PG can facilitate with an informed, accurate and long history of knowing AAU and get them talking together.

In corporate activities AAU has punched far above their weight, successfully negotiated with Turkey/Cyprus authorities, successfully achieved a complex corporate deal with extremely large third party companies, have tremendous success in not finding a 'duster', have wheeled and dealed with land in Australia etc.,

All items that are not so easily 'seen' on a balance sheet. The 'intangibles', if you will.

AAU is the smallest mining company, I think, that PG has on their books which gives some gravitas to AAU.

AAU's share price is dictated by the daily whims of retail investors, if not hourly whims. The low share price is the result of PI investors and no one else. AAU have issued numerous RNS's presentations and still PI's are not happy. At the end of the day AAU is a tinpot mining company to the outside world and giving away a large pot of money will be seen as the company not having any ideas what to do but as things expand in Cyprus and elsewhere then hopefully things will improve and then we see what PG brings to the table... if we can wait that long!

[plasybryn] 23/7/2021 11:54

I'm not quite clear in my own mind why they didn't confirm the ex dividend, record and payment dates in the 20th July "Special Dividend" RNS. Perhaps it's because as they say it is "subject to the completion of the capital reduction process". What is it that is still to be completed for goodness sake? Can any of our legal boffins help?

[konil] 23/7/2021 11:40

given the undervaluation and strong cash position an insti placing north of current share price can happen - maybe ks has remained with pg in the hope of pulling off something like this. though perhaps a limited insti audience due to relatively low mkt cap. probably just wishful thinking on my part.

[thanksamillion] 23/7/2021 11:36

Good to be back to the "old faithful" posters, perhaps short-termers have sold up and moved on.

Came across this on another board,



Seems to ring true, but probably not in Ariana's case.

[konil] 23/7/2021 11:30

plasybryn, i hope it does but a number of good news rns's have not been able to shift it out of this range, so wonder where the catalyst for such a move will come from. aau seem to be in a hiatus as regards cash generative operational news and with the ar published and forward guidance provided the market does not seem interested let alone excited.

conversely the mishandled special divi has turned a positive into a disappointment and it will have caught out many holders and wrongfooted their financial planning, i know it has mine, so i suspect peeps will wait for first tranche - still no dates! - and perhaps more so than would have happened otherwise will decide to take some off the table, certainly the final tranche (c.3.5%) being more than a year away and dependent on even more red tape will be written off by many at least for now. in short, there may be a larger overhang post exdate.

those who have holdings that have already multibagged can/will probably assess and act differently, but i'm guessing many came in or increased significantly over the last year or so on the back of the pm bull, attracted here by aau's undervaluation and other splendid attributes but now find those holdings in an uncomfortable position.

another leg of pm bull needed.

[charles clore] 23/7/2021 10:45

Hope so Plas

[mcmather] 23/7/2021 10:41

2nd map in this one shows their locations. Each zone appears to be about the same distance away from the next one. I recalled West / Far West had some decent grades and just intrigued by KS’ comment in the video that they are now going back there and are “expediting our plans to move this into the mining phase asap”. Just being a bit nosey wondering if it will be one big pit / separate pits / if Kepez West is on the backburner.

[plasybryn] 23/7/2021 10:27

The 4ps will be gone for ever soon imo.

[paul280i] 23/7/2021 08:37

Not that I understand this but does the plan on

give details of the drilling area?

[bigglesbingham] 23/7/2021 01:35

He did mention a very limited drill area in the interview but not exactly where

[mcmather] 22/7/2021 20:17

Re the drilling team going back to "Kepez", does anybody know if the resource announced t'other day included anything from Kepez West / Far West?

The RNS from 21 July 2015 included "Peak rock-chip grades across the Kepez West and Far West area include 14.45g/t Au and 39.20g/t Ag, 9.98g/t Au and 68.10g/t Ag, 9.77g/t Au, 7.68g/t Au and 31.20g/t Ag, 6.30g/t Au and 31.6g/t Ag, and 6.28g/t Au and 54.6 g/t Ag".

Whilst the RNS from 1 Dec 2014 stated "Resource target of 100,000 oz gold* established over a 1,800m x 200m zone across Kepez West and Far West".

Be interesting to know where precisely they are drilling and, also, what the current position is re Kepez West / Far West.

[thanksamillion] 22/7/2021 18:59

Konil

I dont believe we disagree on any of the points you make, I was simply pointing out my thinking regards company valuation.

[konil] 22/7/2021 18:08

thanksamillion, many up and coming companies have gone to the wall for want of cashflow as you probably know. aau have little/no debt, cash in the bank and a profitable operational position, so extremely unlikely to come under stress, however, i never underestimate the importance of cashflow. big and increasing jorc numbers are great and in a supportive market it can see the share price go north big time.

but to convert jorc to cash in bank requires a lot of cash up front, which in turn needs funding either through debt, or equity or cash reserves or a mix of all 3, so to me operational revenues are important. much easier to raise cash of whatever type from a position of strength - an important factor in minimising dilution and/or getting good financing terms, so very important for existing holders. just my view of course.


my point here re. aau's production is that i was (perhaps naively) expecting doubled mill capacity to roughly equate to doubled gold output especially as existing production is already on lower grades. if any of the stockpiled ore is from earlier higher grade mining that could only have helped. so something of a surprise to hear ks say 19000oz for this year. yes, he underpromises and overdelivers operationally but to not even suggest any increase in output on doubled mill throughput seems strange. that to me suggests operational delays/problems in the pipeline.

with operational revenue attributable to aau more than cut in half after jv, it would have been a very nice position to see it more or less back to previous numbers in the blink of an eye. not to be it seems.

[charles clore] 22/7/2021 16:57

It's a long time since I've said this but the trend is finally starting to look a bit more healthy

[konil] 22/7/2021 14:28

soul, i may well have misunderstood. i was surprised to hear ks say "expecting another very good year this year 19000oz"?

[bigglesbingham] 22/7/2021 14:16

Point well made but yet to get confidence in panmure Gordon to deliver. I've had personal dealings and wasn't a good outcome.

[soulsauce] 22/7/2021 12:22

I think you have misunderstood that konil as we have been in the lower grade stuff for a long while now.
Kerim has said it looks like we are producing above the guidance and so increasing throughput is obviously going to increase production.
And don't forget we have a large stockpile already mined. That grade is not going down.

[lottsgold] 22/7/2021 12:01

I'm thinking the output will increase with the higher grade ore coming in to play hence getting back to drill it out more and work it into the mode plan. They've made it clear that 19000oz is the base case with the new ball mill. Think as always they are under promising on this front to be safe.

[konil] 22/7/2021 11:35

disappointed to learn that doubling the mill capacity at kizil will result in the same annual output 19000oz due to reduced grades. they better get a move on else 2021 will be less than 19000oz.

so allowing for 23.5% share instead of 50% prior to ozaltin jv, and assuming they hit 19000oz the operational cash coming in will halve until a new income stream comes online and the jv cash may take longer to reach aau via the new jv structure. (just to be clear i'm not knocking the jv, imo it was an excellent move - though i would like to hear about ozaltin operational progress, strangely quiet on that front).

for increased operational cash the most advanced is tavsan and that is not likely to happen until probably mid 2023. meanwhile company will be spending on new initiatives.

given company is profitable it is not a huge problem, but equally this is not a great cashflow situation. its good they have the jv cash to provide support. makes me think the extended divi payout schedule and that it is at low end of expectations (0.7p) is not only to do with tax advantages and i doubt we will be hearing about a regular dividend policy anytime soon though this was supposed to be announced this month.

although ks is bullish (in proactive interview) about insti involvement, if it happens anytime soon we are likely to get diluted as i cannot see large buy in without special terms unless they can sell the story effectively enough for buy in at prevailing market prices. let's see.

[claretandbluedave] 22/7/2021 11:29

I wasn't too bothered about the divi in 3 tranches, watched the interview and he sounds very confident in what he and the company are doing, added another 200k. Just hope I'm still around in 10 years to reap the rewards...or maybe sooner!!!