Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bigglesbingham] 23/7/2020 07:23

I don't think they will be taken out in short term they require the expertise of AAU to maximise Salinbas. Once this is done then maybe so five years is more realistic at a more realistic shareprice. Think Kerim alluded to this in interview.

[mabel 123] 23/7/2020 04:49

Momentum Structural Analysis
@Oliver_MSA

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Very bullish analysis on where gold and silver are going. Michael Oliver. 31 mins

mabel

[konil] 22/7/2020 23:14

i know i'm relatively new here, but i'd be disappointed to get stopped out at 5 bags if gold keeps going like it is.

[pauliewonder] 22/7/2020 22:52

I don't think 200m is unrealistic, particularly if gold keeps going up. I have seen predictions of $3000-5000 gold spot price in the next two years, and if that's the case, then Kiziltepe alone would be throwing off around $50m per year profit based on $3000 and total costs of $615 per ounce and 20k ounces pa. There would also be Tavsan in early 2022, so I really see $200m as being realistic.Reducing gold price down to $2000 would still give profit for Kiziltepe alone of nearly 30m pa and none of these calls take into account any other assets.It sounds like Salinbas will be an engineering challenge, but again Ozaltin are likely to have the ability to deliver this from a technical point of view , and Salinbas is clearly the big prize. Very exciting

[charles clore] 22/7/2020 22:36

paulie - you mentioned a possible takeout scenario in 12-18 months. So what's your best guess price? I think we should be looking at a minimum of £200m

[pauliewonder] 22/7/2020 22:30

I listened to the podcast today. Have to agree that whilst I'm not the biggest fan of TW, it is worth a listen. Lots of information and some decent questions.I also feel that the Ozaltin JV is a precursor for an ultimate takeout of AAU and that this will likely happen within the next 12-18 months given their financial backing and that they could pick AAU up very cheaply, particularly given the increasing gold price and future cash flows

[pauliewonder] 22/7/2020 21:41

Thanks for the replies and that was my thoughts on the agreement

[bigglesbingham] 22/7/2020 16:58

That's my understanding dixi

[dixi] 22/7/2020 15:38

Well yes - until the MoU is effectively signed, nothing is agreed until that point.

[bigglesbingham] 22/7/2020 15:35

Got to be from date of signing formal agreement . If they got it from date of MOU then it would be the most ridiculous school boy error.

[konil] 22/7/2020 14:44

in which case with bumper operational profits in view, even more than $10m may be considered. that would still leave $25m from jv plus the surplus higher profits less $5m+.

[shortarm] 22/7/2020 14:40

Spellchecker is a pain sometimes!!

[shortarm] 22/7/2020 14:39

Proccea, but yes 7.5 million plus....?

[bigglesbingham] 22/7/2020 14:25

My view is the divi has always be equated to the payment for salinbas. Up until this weekend this has been the $5m by ozaltin however finally there was mention of what prices are bringing to table if they pay mixture of cash and operational input then who to say this cash won't be included in the dividend?

[konil] 22/7/2020 13:57

by the time aau are ready to pay the one-off divi in q4 2020, the pm price rises will have been consolidated or continue increasing, or have started falling back. if either of the first 2 i wonder if ks will be tempted to consider using more of the jv cash for a one-off divi knowing big cashflows/profits are coming in. after all, he may have the aau long term in view but like everyone else i'm sure he'd like to see some big payoff for his successes to date. just a wishful thought.

[charles clore] 22/7/2020 13:43

I don't know but imagine a line will be drawn on the date of signing and everything split to the new ratio from that point on.

[shortarm] 22/7/2020 13:42

I would imagine from the date they 'pay'......

[pauliewonder] 22/7/2020 13:36

Yes the economics of both silver and gold at these prices, given the fixed costs mean that any increases go straight to the bottom line. Quick Q, do we know if Ozaltin qualify for revenue/profit from their share from the date the agreement formally happens or is there a retrospective clause in there?

[1candc] 22/7/2020 13:16

Gold storming ahead but nothing compared to silver! Up over 7% today and yesterday as well, AAU has a lot of Silver, we are getting more valuable by the minute.
Against that backdrop it is almost perverse for some to sell, it's like arriving at the base camp of Everest and then going home leaving all the share price potential behind

[bigglesbingham] 22/7/2020 12:34

Just normal games in an increasing environment

[bigglesbingham] 22/7/2020 12:24

Market makers at it at it again with spread

[bigglesbingham] 22/7/2020 11:18

Patience I'm sure they will hit the market when the times right . I'd sooner see the price tick up due to other factors then get the accounts to act as a further catalyst as the momentum from the TW interview and increase in gold starts to subside. I don't think they are that cute on playing the market however as their attributes lie with building the fundamentals of the company which is no bad thing.