Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jaynesdad] 29/10/2019 08:16

Concur with your comments Ash but the fact is that we are stuck in a rut and EUA is 1.90 as I write up from 0.50 a few short days back! The market may be illogical, but EUA seems a pleasantly illogical place to be right now.....

[plasybryn] 29/10/2019 08:01

Gantt Chart:- how is it different for any Co? You have to make judgments on timings based on experience etc. & then explain if they slip or exceed expectations. Simply.Full costs - AISC - your argument sounds like Brexit. If we don't like the result we will ignore it? I agree the figure isn't perhaps totally representative but that can carry a simply comment. In short order it should fall and present an improving number

[catsick] 29/10/2019 04:51

The Gantt chart is meaningless as they have no control of when permissions to do things will be granted, its not a software writing project, similarly the aisc for a mine with an initial short life that is planned to be extended to a much longer period via exploration does not mean a lot if you have to depreciate the capex over a short period which you then extend, what would be meaningful would be some sort of cash flow projections from the mine over the next 2-3 years when things should be predictable together with an idea of how much they intend to spend on exploration.

[m20ash] 29/10/2019 00:05

Absolutely staggered that investors here are comparing AAU with EUA. On the one hand, you have a company making profits through a JV with free cash flow that will be able to make dividend payments to the parent - AAU - over the next 2 years that should erase the parent company cumulative losses c. £8m at 31/12/18 and allow dividends to be paid to shareholders thereafter, with a company that has not been able to make a profit from it's existing business plan in the last 2 years and has now abandoned it's main contractor for a go it alone approach next year to maximise revenue, involving capital and resource investment that will be a further drain on limited funds, in the hope of reducing costs and generating a profit, whilst at the same time telling the market that it is also looking to sell its main operating assets and doing everything it can to convince the market it has something to sell. EUA has cumulative losses of £25.5m and I very much doubt it will generate profits to erase that any time soon to allow future dividends to be paid. That just leaves the sale of it's main assets to realise any short-term shareholder value and because the numbers simply don't stack up without a considerable amount of investment funding, I'm not sure I would want to take a punt on that.
Having said that, the EUA share price has risen considerably since last week whilst AAU continues to remain in limbo so what do I know.... Maybe 2Tyke was right when he said markets are not rational!
Cheers, Ash

[jaynesdad] 28/10/2019 23:37

I fear some may have a bit of a downer at the moment and I admit a couple of my posts probably haven't helped. I still believe this is a massively undervalued company, and with a steady procession of positive news about reserve upgrades, Tavsan, Kizilcukur, repayment of debt(s) etc we could easily see the sort of revaluation in the share price seen elsewhere. I just don't know when!

[plasybryn] 28/10/2019 18:27

Most Co's produce a Gantt chart showing expectations. It is pathetic to say they can't because issues aren't under their control imo. Shareholders need to see what is planned. It is equally inappropriate not to provide an AISC figure. It is misleading to quote costs without essential elements. It is meaningless and doesn't enable proper comparisons to be made. It is annoying that they say they are such a low cost provider when they aren't quoting an a AISC figure.

[trevor1234] 28/10/2019 17:36

Hi Charles I don't often post But I follow this board regularly I agree with you, I have been invested here for quite a few years now. think we were all expecting a better outcome from Salinbas not saying the results were bad but the P R was shocking and it went down like a damp squid just as the share price seemed to be heading in the right direction. all the results and announcements (excepting about the overdraft)have been very good since then and gold still holding up relatively well so had hoped the share price would be higher

[charles clore] 28/10/2019 16:42

dixi - true! The point I was making is that with EUA you can see that the directors are making incredible efforts to release shareholder value for themselves and ordinary shareholders whereas the only thing the AAU board has released so far is value for themselves.

[dixi] 28/10/2019 16:26

Well, yes, compared to EUA AAU looks as dull as ditch water, but EUA looked much the same until a couple of days ago.

[charles clore] 28/10/2019 15:51

biggles - you said earlier that 'but the nature of investors is that they want returns ASAP.' Yes, I would like to see a return on my investment. In fact, because of the risk I actually expect a bigger return than I would if I invested in a blue chip company. Unfortunately that is not the case. I have (by my standards) quite a lot of money tied up here and it isn't really working for me. I would like to see Kerim state what is in the future for smaller investors (similar to the directors' bonuses and share options) and work out a timeline of payback for all the years we have had our money tied up here. I have made £45k in the past 3 days from another miner that is working towards a sale of assets and you should see how they are promoting the company. It has made me realise that Kerim & Co are simply kicking the can down the road without any regard for shareholder value. Yes, a dividend would be nice, if not essential for my peace of mind. It's getting to the point where I am losing faith, I need something tangible to look forward to.

[jaynesdad] 28/10/2019 14:44

Can I just qualify that by saying a small, relatively nominal, dividend would be a good idea I think, to show intent to pay a more significant dividend when free cashflow permits.

[jaynesdad] 28/10/2019 13:58

Like you I have sympathy with his views on dividends. Although our loans are not explicitly interest bearing they are, of course, implicitly. Anyone with any notion of compound interest could compute it! So yes, its no good effectively borrowing to pay dividends which would be the case if a significant divi was paid at present.

[bigglesbingham] 28/10/2019 13:51

To get investors interested we need the message regarding income vs Market cap after capital loan repaid in April to be reiterated at every opportunity and the company is looking to set up dividend stream accordingly. Very low dividends at first then increased once tarsvan debt repaid. Kerim took message half way on board at last interview saying they were looking at dividend policy, but then gave an indicated timescale of when tarsvan was producing which is not going to help get interest now. I understand why he said that ie having debt and paying dividend doesn't sit right with him. At end of day the company is operationally excellent and making very good progress on all fronts which will come out in shareprice, but the nature of investors is that they want returns ASAP.

[bigglesbingham] 28/10/2019 13:47

I'm understand both sides of the arguments for gantt graphs. They give indicative timescales for when we can expect things to happen. In my experience these are more useful if everything is under your control clearly with mining and receiving permits it isn't and if you have a gantt graph there is a propensity for investors to look at the graph as the holy grail and if a deadline isn't met then the shareprice is hit. If you want to look at all rnss and interviews it is easy to do your own gantt graph but timescales will change.

[jaynesdad] 28/10/2019 10:54

In my opinion there is the difference between being a private and a quoted company which needs to be recognised. Like Plasbryn I would like the Gantt charts back in the presentations even though I know that has been dismissed by Kerim. A quoted company needs headlines, and though I think that has improved in the case of W.Turkey (or maybe there is simply more news to report as we are further in the development cycle there) there is a lack of clarity, for me at least, in the potential of the NE. I fully expect that, unless there is a JV announcement there, this time next year we will be looking at updates saying something on the lines of 'our successful 2020 drilling program in Salinbas further proved our geological model'. Which is great for a private company but for a quoted one some drilling should target significant areas that the model predicts in order to show the area is more than an geological academic exercise - I know it isn't and that they are working on a steady plan but if a new investor were looking that is how it may seem. Hence the current valuation, which seems to put a value only on W Turkey (and conservatively at that). All this in my own opinion only.

[bigglesbingham] 28/10/2019 10:26

Yes was posting re the background info on Cyprus. Regarding Chesterfield they need a drill hit or a JV partner to bolster price before a capital raise.

[catsick] 28/10/2019 05:55

I think it's more likely to be the emend portfolio than Chesterfield but having a mine developed or more exploring done in the area will help , will be interesting to see how things pan out ...

[thanksamillion] 27/10/2019 21:25

Chesterfield

Looking at the six months report the cash seems to be rapidly draining away leaving me wondering if this company is about to go though a period similar to what AAU has in past years.

I remain to be convinced on this one.

[bigglesbingham] 27/10/2019 17:52

https://total-market-solutions.com/2019/05/13/chesterfield-resources-martin-french/This is an interview with Martin French of Chesterfield Resources who have built up a land bank in Cyprus. The interview is worth a listen in terms of building background to our proposed venture into Cyprus and Kerim's proposed rationale for such a venture. If I was him I'd look at reverse takeover as I think they not only have good expo targets they have main listing. However I think EMED is some posters favourite as being the new partner??

[bigglesbingham] 27/10/2019 13:08

From last years quarterly financial update in November 2018: The Company is currently targeting a minimum ten-year mine life, which will require the addition of a further 40,000 oz gold equivalent in reserves outside of the four main pits (Arzu South, Arzu North, Banu and Derya) that are currently scheduled to be mined. Management is confident that this can be achieved assuming the conversion of existing resources to reserves. These results should add at least 40000 ounces !!

[bigglesbingham] 25/10/2019 16:22

They believe them more than most the issue is no one sees what they say as their notes quote $1250 for price of gold because they are useless at marketing. They don't want to be seen as ramping and would rather be ultra conservative. Probably why Kerim likes them so much.

[charles clore] 25/10/2019 15:36

biggles - it's just a shame nobody believes PG!

[bigglesbingham] 25/10/2019 15:35

Nice summary I calculate $11500 for the quarter , not too shabby. If this was maintained from April next year at $500 cost $1500 gold $18 silver would give AAU ebitda of over $15m ! Not bad for $21m market cap company. No wonder Panmure Gordon target is 5p at $1500 gold .

[jaynesdad] 25/10/2019 14:10

Crossfire, fundamentals prevail indeed. The share price is currently strengthening as the situation on the Southern border eases (at least for now)and reduces its influence. We should see 2.2 - 2.3 relatively quickly I feel, which is where it was before the incursion - and the company background has if anything strengthened over the elapsed period with good production numbers, Deyra update, Cyprus prospects, tentative Tavsan timetable etc. In a couple of weeks I am sure the Q3 financials will look good, that has already been implied in Kerims recent interviews. Although I am still concerned about being over exposed to this company, it seems nicely underpinned and I am not losing kip.

[mcmather] 25/10/2019 13:59

Think so biggles; in auction; 2.10p?

Edit; nope, well not yet.