Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[backmarker] 28/8/2019 11:54

I don't subscribe to advfn Alliance news.

Ariana Reports Dip In Kiziltepe Mine Income & Production

with headlines like that I don't think it likely I will.

(soulsauce, you didn't write that headline, did you ?)

[backmarker] 28/8/2019 11:45

looks like we are starting to get a little traction.

at least today it's moving UP on low volume.

5% in a day ? my word, some of you will be reaching for your blood pressure tablets.

[jaynesdad] 28/8/2019 11:38

Still a believer Charles, not to worry. I have a 'nice round figure' of shares and I am determined not to exceed it - but yesterday the temptation was to great when I saw what I though was an anomaly so succumbed - thankfully profitably. Normal service is now resumed

[charles clore] 28/8/2019 11:33

JD - well done you wily old rascal you!

[jaynesdad] 28/8/2019 11:29

Well, have to admit I took advantage to sell the 500k I bought yesterday for a quick and dirty profit earlier today. I'm not normally a trader and I only bought yesterday as I suspected the MMs had their wires crossed first thing (bid & offer were identical on mock sales/ purchases at 1.975). Back to my long term holding. Paid for a couple of pints tonight!

[jc2706] 28/8/2019 11:29

Soulsauce,

I do think that you have got in the habit of reading the releases and looking for the negatives. There were some of those obviously but, generally speaking, the negatives tend to relate to Q2 whereas the positives relate to H2 2019 and 2020. Of course, they need to deliver on those otherwise the company will become a 'jam tomorrow' affair but the operational updates over the last 18 months suggest that the company is capable of delivering.

[charles clore] 28/8/2019 11:20

I do think it reads pretty well actually.

[soulsauce] 28/8/2019 11:03

JC optimism in a AAU Rns, isn't that what they call an oxymoron. To the back of the class young man ;-)

[charles clore] 28/8/2019 10:52

biggles might be able to find out if there is a podcast planned.

[jaynesdad] 28/8/2019 10:48

Agree JC, one reason I am hoping that Kerim does interview(s)following this update in order to put a bit of flesh on the relatively bare bone RNS

[jc2706] 28/8/2019 10:42

Having re-read the RNS I find it confusing that there isn't more optimism about Q3 and Q4. Consider the following statements:

"High strip ratios..... will decrease during Q3 and Q4."

"ore production is steadily increasing during the current quarter"

These would appear reasonably optimistic statements that will significantly impact on production and costs. The plant is operating well and it looks like this will continue.

I suspect that gold production in Q2 will be the weakest quarter. That is not to suggest that Q3 and Q4 will be record quarters but I am expecting an improvement.

[soulsauce] 28/8/2019 10:41

As The Deacon says Charles, also these RNS are not always as timely as they should be.

[the deacon] 28/8/2019 10:37

Presumably MT were under 3%. Wouldn't need an RNS if that's the case. MT themselves may declare it though at some stage

[charles clore] 28/8/2019 10:27

soul - shouldn't there be an rns if it was MT selling? Looks like whoever it was started at 2.6p and took it down from there. It just HAD to rebound at some point - and then yesterday I saw that long wick on the daily...

[soulsauce] 28/8/2019 10:23

Well given the price movement this morning it is certainly looking like the seller may have cleared. Hope it was Metal Tiger, always hated that chunk of shares hanging over us.

[jc2706] 28/8/2019 10:16

2tyke,

I can assure you that there is a sampling issue.

[charles clore] 28/8/2019 10:09

- agree silver producer comment and is turning out to be a great bonus here.

[jaynesdad] 28/8/2019 10:02

backmarker
Nothing new in what you say but a very nice summation. The only thing I can see that will undermine the 'underpin' here is a dramatic reversal of the current PM rally - silver price is particularly impressive, and some published assys almost imply we are a silver producer that also has gold in cetain areas! re Turkey, all I would say is would rather invest in a company operating in Turkey than Africa.

[2tyke] 28/8/2019 10:01

That's right shortarm...nice guy :)

[soulsauce] 28/8/2019 09:58

Lol Shortarm ;-)

[shortarm] 28/8/2019 09:55

2tyke - what's your interest here to suddenly become such a prolific poster?(Other than sharing your vast knowledge out of general good heartedness obviously)

[2tyke] 28/8/2019 09:45

George

You could but remember that most investors get influenced by peer views, especially when they all seem to be in one direction as they are now.
I'll be going leveraged short gold when I believe the top is in. The big losers will be leveraged gold longs.

Biggles
No, not an economist. They are hopeless with stock markets. They always project current data linearly into the future. A bit like fundamental investors do.

[georgethefourth] 28/8/2019 09:26

2tyke - it wouldn't be that hard if you were sure of the 10 year trend was up. Pop into a high street jewellers and load up on sovereigns then sell in ten years. You'd have made 800% doing just that last time, and if you used leverage and bought calls and miners...

[backmarker] 28/8/2019 09:22

whether or not there is a big seller who has now finished or not, daily trade volumes have been low for some days and which in itself would explain the twitchy share price movements.

even though AAU IS a producing mine it is clear to me that AAU will be a much more attractive proposition next year when the debt has been paid off and free cash flow increases rapidly. however as events tend to be discounted months in advance I would expect the market to start recognising this as we approach nearer April 2020.

based on a good track record of meeting targets, etc., the current core of the company must be regarded as relatively non-speculative, which should mean no real surprises and hence no frenetic share price movements.

however AAU has several exciting prospects (Salinbas, etc.), but it would seem that little value is bein attached to these at present.

so what I see in AAU is a company with few downside risks (Turkish political situation notwithstanding) and plenty of upside potential.

I wouldn't go so far as to call it a "safe bet", but compared with its peers it certainly looks like one.

keep calm, drink a nice malt whisky, and wait.....for this company to have its "crazy moment"