Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[charles clore] 23/8/2019 11:13

soul - it must be disappointing for some to see the share price hovering around 2p for 6 months without any indication of continuing upwards. But the worst part about it is that we all know that the price DESERVES to be much higher. If you look at the steady production of 25k oz+ per annum, costs falling into the global lowest quartile of gold miner AISC, the profits being generated equivalent to a successful medium sized business and all this accompanied by a rising precious metals sector, the lack of investor support does not make sense. You might start to wonder what is wrong with this company but there isn't anything wrong with it. Technically, it has done everything right more or less since Kiziltepe started producing and now we are approaching loan maturity date of Easter 2020 which will probably mean the company is able to take on a new loan for Tasvan mine but with a big difference; they have done it before and know how to do it without the snags so it will be cheaper and investors should see it as proportionally derisked. Some might say the company is too small and that's why nobody is interested. Fair comment, that may be true. There are potential multibaggers out there but they can carry high risk as well. This one doesn't imho and that is partly because the management have proved themselves to be technically competent and capable of changing direction where necessary. They . I am looking at a target of at least 5p here within the bull gold cycle. I'll be staying put next year and only taking profits at a much higher price than this.

[dixi] 23/8/2019 10:58

Through all the timeframes being discussed, for adding additional operations, it is highly likely that Ariana will be running as a very profitable going concern. That has to be a reasonable investment case by any standards. But I cannot see the approach to promoting this changing.

[jaynesdad] 23/8/2019 10:45

Some very valid points being made this morning, shows how valuable these boards can be. I will agree that, not necessarily because of the company, things in Turkey can take a bit of time.

[soulsauce] 23/8/2019 10:29

Exactly 8rad.

JD I think it will be 5yrs minimum to the point of building a plant if Tavsan is anything to go by.
The hope would be that a JV would provide a necessary fillip to the share price in the shorter term but I won't be holding my breath on that one either given how we perform here.

[jaynesdad] 23/8/2019 10:21

Put in the context of advancing production at Salinbas via a 50 koz JV in advance of later full exploitation I quite like yesterdays news. I would like to think that it brings a possibility of a mine in NE to, say, 5 years hence rather than the decade I was expecting. While many wont want to hold for that length of time, the knowledge that the mine is coming should propel the share price

[8rad] 23/8/2019 10:20

Unfortunately I agree Soul ...too much underhype and too much conservatism although honourable for a time, well this is not the time. We need this co shouted from the rafters as an undervalued gem so if PG don't do it then the Board MUST.

[soulsauce] 23/8/2019 10:09

Plasybryn thanks for your concern but if I am feeling it then it is no wonder we can't keep PI's interested here, the PI's we so badly need in the absence of II's.

You say look at the chart. Yes it has gone from a very low base due to historic poor raisings to something a little more palatable, but as most people probably have an average around 1.5-2p then the returns are still bad. So no it's far from impressive and compared to other goldies it is down right average.
Add to this the fall back from 2.5p to 2p as the gold price has gone from $1350 to $1500, it's nonsensical.

The risk of triggering a low ball take over is no excuse for poor comms' or keeping a lid on RNSs. I would have thought that keeping the market cap low would be a much bigger risk to a low ball take over.
If Kerim is consciously doing that he is being unfair to long term shareholders like yourself. It is up to him to get the share price up. May be this is why he is not bothered about getting II's in then either which may lift the share price

[sonoftherock] 23/8/2019 09:49

To be fair, the 500Koz is just taken from the 2015 "scoping study". Although I agree that they could be more clear in relation to the 2.7Moz. You'd hope they have some more up to date data to work with, but in the absence of anything published...

[jaynesdad] 23/8/2019 09:44

A second ball mill is affordable and has been discussed at presentations. It is a way of maintaining a nice level 25 - 27 koz production at Kiziltepe while the grades gradually deteriorate in line with the model. It also has an advantage, as far as I am concerned, of adding redundancy to the plant - it seems to me that a weak link is the great big heavy crushy thing could suffer a component failure and bring the whole production process to a (lterally) grinding halt. Clearly a 2 ball operation would be slowed by such a failure in one unit, but is unlikely to be halted.

[plasybryn] 23/8/2019 09:42

soul sauce: sorry to read your comments. Look at the chart. It's pretty impressive and its easy to forget how much the S.P. has actually advanced since this time last year. I do agree that the communication could be more up beat, but I suspect the risk of triggering a low ball take-over is what keeps Kerim measured. I would like to see more progress on Tavsan, which hopefully we will hear about soon, and most importantly extending the resource/reserve at Kiziltepe which could then facilitate a 2nd Ball Mill.
At Salinbas I'm wondering why Hizarilyayla hasn't been progressed sooner, as after all it is the closest to Hot Maden (some 8km north). But an injection of capital from a J.V. partner now makes sense to me, so they can progress the work or they will risk starting production just as we hit the end of the gold cycle!

[mcmather] 23/8/2019 09:30

Biggles still think they need to clarify it in a formal capacity; if you don't read this bb, based on yesterday's rns, you're assuming 500k oz is the target for NE Turkey.


JD, there's a lot of acreage in NE Turkey but it's all connected so can only them going wuth one company for any tie up.


Agree CC. I reckon there's loads more gold in the Kiziltepe area alone - based on previous announcements - and the additional revenue could easily fund the cost to prove that up.

[bigglesbingham] 23/8/2019 09:27

You got to look at all the bottleneck on a process , throughput on ballmill May be one but if you double the potential throughput through the ball mill then many other bottle necks appear ie how quick you get ore out of ground , how quickly can you transport and so on.

[kirbs4] 23/8/2019 09:26

I think it was a couple of months ago that Kerim did the interview in which he stated the coming months would be an exciting time for shareholders. I hope we dont already have the information he thought was exciting...

[thanksamillion] 23/8/2019 09:24

We seem to be getting regular snippits and photos of progress posted to the Twitter account, suspect this is being pushed along by Yellow Jersey. Every little helps I say.

[bigglesbingham] 23/8/2019 09:23

I get the impression KZ wants to look at developing ASAP hence looking at production on a minimum level now with future drilling to increase the resource. I think this may be a way to fend off buyers at a ridiculously low price. If there is a JV at salinbas it muddies the waters for a purchaser. It has several advantages in that things get moving quickly it's got one disadvantage in that the JV partner may get in cheaply because the full extent of salinbas is not proven and if it does get proven up then they would be laughing. Having said that they are aware of this and can build anything into a contract which favours AAU if these resource targets are met. I would have liked a sale of salinbas for a good injection of cash but thinking about it this route speeds up possible production, exploration and would presumably involve a lot of cash from the JV partner. Let's face it nothing is priced in for salinbas at the minute !

[jaynesdad] 23/8/2019 09:22

I don't pretend know the figures Charles but I would have thought an additional 20k rather optimistic - you still have to mine the stuff fast enough to feed the ball mills! Also such a massive increase in production would have a devastating effect on Life of Mine - you could be faced with a situation where production ceases in the West before in commences in NE. I have confidence that the BODs approach is measured.

[charles clore] 23/8/2019 09:11

There must be a possibility of a second ball mill at Kiziltepe too. That could add >20k oz p.a. to current production so easily cost effective.

[jaynesdad] 23/8/2019 09:02

Thanks biggles. Can I ask if any timescale was implied. Getting the ball rolling does not on the face of it sound like 10 years away. Also would a JV deal in the NE cover the whole or just a subset of the assets there?

[bigglesbingham] 23/8/2019 08:52

Kerim emailed me last night and clarified that the 2.7m target is very much on but they can get the ball rolling with looking at setting up mine for 50000 ounce now

[goldenshare888] 23/8/2019 01:15

It's steady as she goes - or not! Flat as a pancake....

:-/

[mcmather] 22/8/2019 20:08

Cheers biggles; agree with that soul. Previous formal announcements allude to a target of an additional 2.7m ozs. Today's RNS infers 50k each year for 10yrs; ie 500,000 ozs. It's material and needs clarifying - in a formal announcement (RNS) - whether kerim wants to or not.

[soulsauce] 22/8/2019 16:57

But isn't that just one of the problems bigglesbingham?
As said countless times this is a PI controlled stock as he and those he has appointed have failed to get institutional interest.
So really he ought to have a duty to get people interested in the company and that isn't going to happen with his approach.
Complete BS.

And therein lies the answer to why we are not going up.

Charles lol may be.

[bigglesbingham] 22/8/2019 16:37

Got the impression MDV would have liked it more upbeat but KS likes his conservative approach. I'd have issued the first ever video RNS delivered by models ha ha . But steady as she goes.

[charles clore] 22/8/2019 16:35

Ah, soul. If they did as suggested in your 16113 I've no doubt the trolls would start calling AAU a 'pump on news' company, rather than the current 'sell on news' company!