Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[2tyke] 26/8/2019 08:46

Yes, i've mentioned $1590 as a likely final top for gold plasybryn.

That's if $1534 is bettered.

[plasybryn] 26/8/2019 02:34

Gold: MA's bullishly aligned and indicators Breaking/Out & into the previous highs looking good for gold according to a chartist.

[bigglesbingham] 26/8/2019 00:41

Improving the fundamentals and also the JV partners may pay a bit more.

[plasybryn] 26/8/2019 00:10

Gold on a charge!!

[bigglesbingham] 25/8/2019 22:25

Are you a regular on president energy bulletin board ?

[dixi] 25/8/2019 21:26

Have you read the gold thread? It's not exactly euphoric.

[charles clore] 25/8/2019 21:23

ok 2tyke thanks for the info it has been interesting knowing you, byeee!

[2tyke] 25/8/2019 21:10

Well dixi the reason is that there wouldn't be any debate.
I'd be ridiculed as being a de-ramping idiot.

By definition. when an asset is close to a major high, everyone is on board and singing from the same hymn book. That's how we know everyone is about to be caught on the wrong side of the fence.

But this bb is very fair and tolerant, and is prepared to listen to the contrarian voice.
But, be honest, does even one single poster think i'm right ?
I'd doubt it.

I've given you the info....it's upto you to dismis it or otherwise.

[2tyke] 25/8/2019 21:00

A few bob

If you mean silver....that also has a little higher to go short-term, before it joins its big brother on the big descent.

[a.fewbob] 25/8/2019 20:39

Hmmmmm,

I guess all of the above makes sense except AG is pretty much still flat on its back!!

[soulsauce] 25/8/2019 20:25

Booooring!!

Quite dixi.

[dixi] 25/8/2019 20:16

Why not take this debate to the 'really useful gold thread'? It is a much busier bb.

[2tyke] 25/8/2019 18:40

Signs of an impending top in the gold price often include:

* complete bullishness on all bb's

* gold financial commentators talking about ridiculous future figures eg, $5000/oz

* central banks buying big.

* governments talking to local gold companies about improved profit-share or even buy-outs.

* fewer gold companies hedging their gold sales going forward....when this is exactly what they should be doing.

* re-emerging talk of gold standards or reserve currency etc.

* larger gold companies subsidising smaller ones with loans or offers for assets.

* gold company directors buying their own stock or considering further loans.

How many of the above can you spot ?

[2tyke] 25/8/2019 18:02

Jaynesdad

Charting works simply because there is 'no' level playing field in the stock market. There is no norm and no linear projection. The stock market is completely counter-intuitive at every turn.....and shrouded in irony.

Although huge stock rises, like that at AAZ, 'seem' to reflect underlying business success, this is really not the case.
Stocks rise and stocks fall. I think I mentioned previously my view that AAZ is also close to a major top...just like gold metal.

Most people have some kind of 'method' for picking stocks....most just don't work.

[2tyke] 25/8/2019 17:29

Yes i'm aware of that Charles.

I was suggesting that the existence of many loss-making gold stocks at higher market caps than AAU was evidence that economics and earnings per share don't really figure as a price driver for stocks.

[jaynesdad] 25/8/2019 17:26

2tyke
I think we have a very different approach to investing. You seem very locked in to you charts, and little reference to fundamentals which you seem to almost dismiss as irrelevant. I believe both play a part, but that the long term success is based on fundamentals against the background of a imperfect market. I said the market was sometimes not logical. I did not say it was illogical. Charts, although I don't study them, can I believe explain some psychological effects of the markets - they can predict resistance, and buying patterns, based not on fundamental logic but by mapping underlying past historic buying patterns. That assumes a 'level playingfield' in the companys prospects. Otherwise I interested only in the quality of management, prospects, competition, debt, cash generation etc of a company. I don't believe charts have predicted massive successes (say marl, aaz or the recent turnaround in jog), or the sudden failure of clln, irv or even small company like cake. In short, quality will float to the surface, where quality exists. Similarly unexpected downturns due to corruption, fraud or fashion cannot. I'm not being funny here but that's quite a big speech by my standards and I wont be discussing further, but wish you well.
JD

[charles clore] 25/8/2019 17:03

2tyke25 Aug '19 - 15:05 - 16204 of 16204
jaynesdad

...I trust you are aware of many gold stocks with higher market caps than AAU, who are loss making, and probably always will be...

Oh didn't you know, AAU is profit making!!

[2tyke] 25/8/2019 15:05

jaynesdad

Well a market cap of 19 mill would be absurd, if earnings and free cash flow were in any way relevant to share price

The only people who find the AAU price surprising are those who believe economics play a part.

I trust you are aware of many gold stocks with higher market caps than AAU, who are loss making, and probably always will be.

There is a very simple conclusion to draw, and I think that you have drawn it with your observation that the market isn't interested in logic.

[2tyke] 25/8/2019 14:53

Supercity

The great gold bull market ended dramatically in september 2011 at $1921. At this point there were 98% bulls. Even central banks were pouring money in. When central banks buy in the end of the trend is nigh...they are always the final mugs. You will also recall at this point gold commentators talking about a possible $5000/oz and airports dispensing gold leaf from vending machines. When euphoria reaches this level, the only way for price is down.

The first leg of the bear market ended in december 2015 at $1046. I won't bore you with why we know this was only the first leg of the bear....but it was. At this point there were over 90% bears and less than 10% bulls, so again we knew to expect the counter-trend bounce to start. This bounce usually retraces about 50% of the fall,
Which is a bit higher than now.
More accurate technical calculation puts the very top of this rise at about $1590

There are currently over 90% gold bulls and hedge funds (mug money) is pouring in. There is scope to move a little higher yet, further than the current high of $1534. We await a sentiment of around 95% bulls and central banks to take more interest before the end is nigh.
The likelihood of a double top at $1800 is less than 5% technically.

[jaynesdad] 25/8/2019 11:18

Sorry, miscalc there. More like £11.5m free cash flow rather than £15, but still a bit absurd if MC is £19m!

[jaynesdad] 25/8/2019 10:18

Supercity
Debt repayment is significantly less than 12 months away, and there is likely to be a reasonable cash balance in the JV at present which could mean repayment is even earlier than planned - I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen in line with AAUs 'underpromise / overachieve' strategy. That would be the sort of news that could significantly boost the share price I doubt the share price will retrace as far as 1.8p but unfortunately the market, not logic, will determine that. If the share price were to drop to 1.8p I would buy more, not sell what I have, as it would mean at current POG/POS AAU will have a net income of c.£15m pa shortly against a MC of £19m

[supercity] 25/8/2019 08:40

If I look at a ten year chart In gold I see a spike from 1200 to 1800 followed by several years of bouncing around in a tightish range.That range has now been breached and the next 12 months could easily see another spike and a double top at 1800.If huge short positions are being taken it hasn't had any effect whatsoever on the price and can easily bankrupt shorters if a steady climb or spike back to 1800 does happen.Ariana is simply in the stage of its development where buyers will show interest once the debt is paid off and the profits are looking meatier which is only 12 months or so away.In the meantime I fully expect a retrace below 2p hence the reason for my buy order still being open at 1.8pMarkets don't always look to the future until it arrives

[2tyke] 24/8/2019 22:45

Brasso

Bitcoin is in a completely different position to gold.
Bitcoin is currently correcting lower but it is in a bull market.
Gold is currently finishing a bounce higher but within a huge bear market.

Long-term the prognosis is much better for bitcoin than for the yellow metal.

[brasso3] 24/8/2019 21:33

2tyke

I cannot see where you be putting your money in that case. The economy has never looked as fragile as it is now and what is going on today makes 2008 look like childs play. I am afraid of almost everything except gold and Botcoin.