Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[konil] 11/6/2021 23:02

plasybryn, thanks for the heads up, that's a new one to me, will try and research it.

[carcosa] 11/6/2021 17:40

LIBOR rates were manipulated between 2002 and 2012 ref:

'The result of this "could be" interest rates..' Indeed, the planet could be wiped out next week by an asteroid. Possible but unlikely. The LIBOR replacement system has been well prepared for and highly unlikely to have increased volatility. How it could be more 'manipulated' than LIBOR (which is/was essentially a bunch of guys on the phone at the end of the day giving their rates) is beyond me.

Damp squib #2... except....

For corporate purposes (I mostly deal with Commercial Aviation) long duration agreements involving LIBOR extending past 2021 have to be rewritten to one, or in practice a bland of several, LIBOR replacement rates and getting that agreed between all parties is problematical. Where vast sums of money are involved a 0.1% change can be significant. For AAU however I would imagine that what few loans/leases etc., they have would have would result in a negligible impact to their business.

[plasybryn] 11/6/2021 17:28

The NSFR (net stable funding ratio) is probably the critical element of Basel III rules which will affect banks. 
Physical gold (not paper) is going to be reclassified as a Tier 1 asset & should drive the physical market. Paper gold (unallocated gold) is unlikely to be shorted in future as we have seen over the years of manipulation. 
More gold is traded daily in London than is produced through mining in a year. It is estimated that nearly 95% of that gold traded daily in London is unallocated paper gold. Similar figures exist in the COMEX in New York. Surely the implications are significant!.
 
As I understood, pre implementation the banks were going to get audited to check on their allocated physical gold. Therefore If physical is required before the audit, banks have to insist on delivery and quickly. So where is all this gold going to come from when we know a huge amount traded is paper? 
Do the paper naked shorts need to unwind?
So many questions and very few concrete answers?

[johncasey] 11/6/2021 17:18

why i piled into ironveld late today ticker iron

yeah but it isnt just vanadium theyve got...titanium,magnetite and loads of high purity iron...no brainer

80 million tonnes of magnetite ore - the JORC compliant mineral resources demonstrates holds 1.6 billion pounds of Vanadium, the equivalent to four times annual global demand
32 million tons of High Purity Iron in situ
9 million tonnes of Titanium

[plasybryn] 11/6/2021 17:06

konil: this is another aspect of the changes as I understand. Are you aware of these?
Another change coming is LIBOR moving to OIS derivate based rate by the end of 2021. This is the mechanism used by Banks to determine the rate at which they lend to each other. The result of this could be interest rates will be more unstable, and manipulation will be more hidden. It is reported that it will impact on Debt rate, interest rates, currencies, gold market and any other derivative traded market that falls under the new Basil 111/CRR11 requirements.

[bigglesbingham] 11/6/2021 16:43

No your right it's a theory but a pattern which have been followed for months

[renniks2016] 11/6/2021 16:42

Tighter spread today, and considering the volume, some one happy to have them, I would if I had the spare cash, roll on next week when there might be a bit. Happy Friday.

[jaf1948] 11/6/2021 16:27

Suggestive bur not conclusive !

[bigglesbingham] 11/6/2021 16:15

JAF notice the sells after buys gone through. Someone reducing holding but doesn't want their remaining holding affected. Been like this for six months

[konil] 11/6/2021 16:03

perhaps the lack lustre performance of the gp in the face of basel3 nsfr implementation is because it only comes in for european banks on 1st july.

it wont apply to uk banks until 1st january 2022.

of the 42 banks that are lbma members only 7 are european and 5 of those are swiss. there are 17 uk registered banking members.

not entirely sure how relevant the make up of the lbma banking members is to the issue, but maybe given the membership numbers most of the impact of nsfr on the unallocated (paper) gold business wont be seen until or nearing 1st january.

also maybe participants are still hoping for a watering down of the rules in the meantime? though if it goes through unaltered on 1st july it will be more difficult to argue for special treatment thereafter.



closer to home for aau investors, it will be a relief to get the dividend sorted and to hear from aau about ongoing dividend policy. cannot see anything else having much impact on the share price in the short term.

[jd 1965] 11/6/2021 10:16

The central banks of Hungary and Thailand have this year made two of the largest monthly #gold purchases seen in recent history. Shaokai Fan, Head of Central Bank Relationships, explores this recent activity in his latest #Goldhub blog: https://t.co/Dzbtw7CgCh https://t.co/JHKIBz71h3

[plasybryn] 11/6/2021 09:14

Short video on the gold chart might be of interest.
youtu.be/UWoHzT86tNI

[konil] 11/6/2021 01:25

kaos, perhaps its the other way around, maybe central banks have had their day and commercial banks with their links into industry/commerce will become favoured instruments of the political classes/govts. impossible to say how the cards will fall but maybe a denouement is approaching? i wouldn't be at all surprised if many in the u.s. political circles are sick of being held to ransom by the sham that goes by the name 'federal reserve'.

[kaos3] 10/6/2021 15:38

imho - there is whole banking industry "reorganization". CBs are/will be bypassing commercial banks more and more. AI will do direct algorithmic lending.each one will have direct account with the CB. Techfin. commercial banks will slowly die off.

it is CBs against commercial banks atm as strange as one thinks this statement is. commercial banks are tool to the CBs - which has to be "modernized". I see banks taking on the role of the private CBs digital policing and enforcement more and more. and less and less involved in classic banking

gold in it all?
- CBs own it and adding, most commercial banks not - which is good for gold
- gold might take 2 roles - interstate trade netting instrument and backing CBDCs

[plasybryn] 10/6/2021 15:29

Good stuff on Basil 3/NSFR everyone.
Great so many are aware and taking an interest.
But would you expect less from AAU investors??

[konil] 10/6/2021 15:09

remains to be seen
- whether lbma/wgc/comex etc. get their way and basel3 nsfr gets watered down
- what impact basel3 has on the gp, whether watered down or not

to date it appears the gp is not particularly impressed with impending implementation of basel3 nsfr on 1st july for european banks. perhaps its implementation at end 2021 for uk banks will have a greater impact.

[konil] 10/6/2021 15:02

as far as i understand it, the implementation of basel3 will make unallocated gold trading far more expensive than at present. this will probably lead to a much reduced paper gold market.

given that hisorically most unallocated contracts have been on the short side by a large margin (the reasons why some find this desirable is a whole different area of discussion related to desirability of keeping the dollar price of gold as low as possible for the benefit of the dollar), there has been an ongoing imbalance leading to the gp being permanently depressed, so a reduction in this activity should encourage true market driven price discovery for gold.

not good for those who wish to keep a lid on the gp but good for the likes of investors in aau.

[konil] 10/6/2021 14:47

yes, the request for special consideration by the participants of the unallocated (paper) gold business (lbma, wgc, comex etc.) has been in since may but bis response is unknown to me.

the lbma/wgc paper can be found at this link;




alasdair macleod has these comments on their plea for special consideration:

"The LBMA/WGC letter leads its readers to assume the only difference between allocated and unallocated gold is the convenience unallocated gold provides for an efficient market. Nowhere is there any mention of the lack of physical gold backing unallocated accounts. And by ignoring the process of bank credit creation, it panders to the naïve assumption that banks are simply pass-through intermediaries with depositors on one side and loans on the other."

"In common with banking regulators, the LBMA and WBC apparently fail to understand that unallocated accounts on bank balance sheets are only created by the process of bank credit expansion and have nothing to do with physical gold. The origin of all unallocated accounts is not the depositing of gold, but credit creation."

"The LBMA/WGC submission claims that gold is vital collateral for central counterparties, which rely on the LBMA system to manage both it “and the physical delivery of precious metals derivative contracts” (page 3). The wording is misleading, because the delivery of a derivate contract is not the same as delivering the precious metal. The only other reference to collateral is in Annex 1, where the WGC trots out the usual stuff about gold having no counterparty risk and is widely accepted as collateral. That is true of physical gold, but is not relevant to unallocated gold, where counterparty risk is the only consideration and is the exclusive business between LBMA member banks."

"Unallocated gold is no more than book entries tied to the price of gold, and its origin and continued existence is entirely funded by the creation of bank credit. It is this that Basel 3 recognises."

the full article by alasdair macleod can be found at this link;

[charles clore] 10/6/2021 14:27

Agreed pharma this is something we are grateful for - any and all information relating to our investment

[jd 1965] 10/6/2021 14:21

Tweet by AAUhttps://twitter.com/GOLDCOUNCIL/status/1402928276226576386?s=19

[pharmoutcomeszzz] 10/6/2021 13:15

Thank you KS for the important update and communication on the dividend court proceedings. Just what we need more of!

[konil] 10/6/2021 11:05

on the impact of basel3: the gp does not appear to be showing much interest, implementation is only 3 weeks away for european banks and seemingly already accepted by powers that be in the u.s., with u.k. banks to follow at end 2021/start 2022. so apparently it will be implemented.

perhaps it will be a damp squib as some have suggested, or perhaps it will be fireworks at the last moment.

if nothing much happens to gp it will be interesting to see how commentatots will explain away their assertions that it is a super-bull event for gp.

with no news on tavsan, which makes it more likely that production wont be till late 2022, a rising gp may be our best hope for a rising share price (all the long term stuff doesn't seem to do the job for aau sp), so hoping that the gp is just having a mini-rest in its latest assault on $1900 then $2000.

[soulsauce] 10/6/2021 10:40

R.I.P Dean Parrish

[soulsauce] 10/6/2021 10:29

Right, what would be the adequate amount oh knowledgeable one? :-/

Quite right kaos.

[thanksamillion] 10/6/2021 10:28

Oh but I can! I stated it went too far, I did not say that communication could not improve.