Antofagasta Share Discussion Threads

[elssworth] 28/10/2009 12:02

Expect things to get more shaggier. Those nobulars disregarding the directional change, will be left with sore nipples.

Hope this helps
Fanks
The Prof....................you know they've sold, i know they've sold, they have the rest of you by the loola.

PS
Massive comparisons being drawn all over again to 1929! The truth is, the similarities are stagering!!
====================================

1929-1930 vs. 2008-2009
October 19, 2009

Believe it or not, there are some striking similarities between these two time frames. If my read is right here the S&P 500 should be peaking it the not too distant future.




Let's first look at a chart of the 1929-1930 period for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In order to simplify this comparison I want to start with the lower high of 347 (it lines up well with the lower high of 1255 from 9/19/08) which was printed on 10/15/29. From there the index fell 13.2% to close at 301 on 10/25/29. Following the close on 10/25/29 the market gapped down and finally bottomed on 11/13/29 at 199 for a 33.9% loss in approximately a 3 week period. I believe it would be fair to classify the close of 10/25/29 at 301 as the point where the bottom literally fell out of the market. I have drawn a horizontal trendline at the 10/25/29 close as a visual.

From the crash low of 195 on 11/13/29 the market then rallied 52.3% to a peak of 297 on 4/16/30. In other words, it took about 5 months for the market just to rally back to the point where the bottom fell out (301) before failing and moving lower. I would also like to point out that the rally from 11/13/29-4/16/30 was slightly more than a 50% retracement from the high of 386 on 9/3/29 to the low of 195 on 11/13/29. The exact 50% retracement for the move would have been 291 as calculated as follows:

(386-195)= 191

191 x .500= 95.5 (round to 96)

96 + 195= 291

Considering that the peak was 297, the 50% retracement of 291 was exceeded by approximately 2.0%.

Let's now fast forward and take a look at a chart of the S&P 500 for the 2008-2009 time frame.




On 9/19/08 the S&P 500 closed at 1255. From there, the index fell 12.4% over the following two weeks to close at 1099 on 10/3/09. Following the close on 10/3/09 the index gapped down and finally bottomed on 10/10/08 at 840. The end result was a 33.1% loss in approximately 3 weeks. In this case the close of 1099 on 10/3/08 was the point where the bottom fell out of the market. I have drawn a horizontal line at that level just as I did with the 301 level on the 1929-1930 chart.

Instead of rallying for 5 months following the crash low like 1929 the market continued to decline for another 5 months before finally bottoming out on 3/6/09 at 666. Let's look at the comparisons from the lower highs at each time period to the eventual crash lows:

1929: 347-195 for a 43.8% loss

2008-2009: 1255-666 for a 46.9% loss

Since the low of 666 on 3/6/09 the S&P 500 has now rallied 64.9% in just over 7 months to close today at 1098. Does that level ring a bell? 1099 was the point where the bottom fell out of the market last year. The equivalent for 1929 was 301 and the market topped at 297. Let's look at it from a fibonacci retracement standpoint. The rally of 1929-1930 carried approximately 2.0% beyond its 50% retracement. Given that the 50% retracement of this bear market (from 1576-666) would be 1122, 2.0% beyond that level would suggest a potential peak of approximately 1145.

Below we have another chart which shows significant resistance in the 1120-1125 region. This is a trendline from the October 2007 high of 1576 and May 2008 high of 1440.



From my 9/18/09 update:

"8. Let's look at the Fibonacci timing ratios here. Major Wave A concluded on 6/11/09. It lasted approximately 3 months. The correction (Major B) lasted almost a month, or 1/3 as long as Major Wave A. The bottom for Major B came on 7/8/09. Since A=C is a typical ratio for both price and time it would be logical for Wave C to last as long as Wave A. Since Major A lasted approximately 3 months, add 3 months to 7/8/09 for Major C and we have a time target of 10/8/09. If we get a little more precise Major A lasted 97 days (March 6th to June 11th). 97 days from 7/8/09 would give us a time objective of 10/13/09."

I want to focus on the very last sentence here. In Elliott Wave terms, Major Wave C would = Major Wave A in terms of time on 10/13/09. Today after the bell Apple Computer (AAPL) reported earnings that apparently got investors excited and the stock was up big after hours. If the market does rally ~2-3% in the following days I would think that would be enough to take the AAII sentiment to an extreme level of bullishness (that could mark a major top) and that would still only be 8 days away from that last timing projection.

The intermediate term trend remains up but I'm still not a believer. If the market continues to move up from here the only two explanations I can come up with are:

1. Massive inflation or hyperinflation is coming (which is NOT what the bond market is suggesting).

2. Performance chasing will continue to lead the market higher no matter how illogical it is. As stated before, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

If the case is #2 the market will be set up for one ugly 2010.

[grgkecer] 27/10/2009 12:15

They apparently want an international rather than a merely Chilean image. They will have to make a decision on Reko Diq fairly soon; it looks promising . . . but the neighbouring province in Afghanistan is Helmand.

[jzd] 27/10/2009 11:00

Anto seem to be extending themselves a bit thinly with exploration projects in Africa, Asia, America and now Europe. Where next? Australia?

[chillwill] 27/10/2009 10:18

Just closed all mine at 831.5p, may reopen them pretty shortly though

[diku] 27/10/2009 08:24

859p short closed at 841p..

[grgkecer] 27/10/2009 08:02

Ormonde Signs Joint Venture with Antofagasta on La Zarza

[chillwill] 26/10/2009 17:26

Our index is mostly being kept up by low interest rates, speculation on dollar weakness causing commodities to rise and devaluation of sterling; hence the rise of the mining & oil co heavy ftse100 while many other stocks that are solid businesses have gone unnoticed as people aren't investing in fundamentals.

In fact I'd dare say some investment in the ftse has been by people not wanting the previously 'secure' government debt!

[swipe] 26/10/2009 16:48

They have already started comparing history with todays "Global Recession"!
NO RECESSION LASTS JUST A FEW WEEKS....& what was behind inventing this word "Greenshoots"!!
Money doesn't grow on stock market trees, they've fed you an appetiser, now you'll only be the ones left holding!

Have a look at the comparisons being talked about:

[diku] 26/10/2009 08:27

short at 859p...

[swipe] 24/10/2009 22:18

7 weeks old and that makes it irrelevant!
This should be a piece stamped on your forehead. The relevance will stay for years to come.

One day you will also become a good trader Chilly.

[chillwill] 24/10/2009 18:25

Well done Ellsworth (or, as the signature suggests 'Elsworth'), you've mastered the art of copy and paste, now all you need to do is get a calendar and start posting up to date data.

[thebull3] 23/10/2009 17:29

agree chillwill, papers will be doom and gloom this weekend

[chillwill] 23/10/2009 16:12

I don't know but the weekends press will be full of doom so maybe longer term investors may look to re-evaluate their positions and maybe next week will be the start of some weakness.

[diku] 23/10/2009 15:18

What chance US gets heavily sold off later tonight!...

[chillwill] 23/10/2009 15:17

See what you mean diku - it's a bit abstract; you could say a little fear means a retrace is likely as people aren't confident in more gains, but then if there is very little fear, it may be a good contrary trade as everyone is overly bullish

[diku] 23/10/2009 15:14

tb3..VIX...measure of market volatility...you will see the chart on the FTSE Index Traders Corner thread...

[thebull3] 23/10/2009 15:00

what does that mean diku?

[diku] 23/10/2009 14:49

The VIX is currently suggesting no fear in the market...trading at lows...whilst markets breaching new year highs..

[chillwill] 23/10/2009 14:14

very sensible thebull, speculating is a good way to make big gains but equal loses are possible. There is only so long this optimism can last before a correction down to levels that reflect a longer, slower economic recovery.

I've made enough on commodities, not as much as I should and may be back when there is a dip but for now my money is moving to smaller companies with growth prospects that aren't subject to speculation and wild swings; the ftse is getting very volatile and being up 80+ points on a day where its announced we're in the longest recession since records began is just daft; I also noted (can't remember where) the amount of leverage on the market has risen quite a lot over last few months, which would give reason for the index volatility

[thebull3] 23/10/2009 13:31

diku, agree, was hoping to see a spike to 900p, will watch closely! £ falling against dollar today, wouldnt be suprised to see a change in direction later today, personally Im sitting at cash at present, frustrating but not chasing the market up at these valuations, seems likely you stand a higher chance to lose money buying into anto at 850+
maybe wrong but not taking my chances going long at these levels

[diku] 23/10/2009 13:12

tb3...agree...I am very tempted to short around this level for a medium term...at least for the next 6 weeks or target of 680p...I think those heavy weight Investments Banks want to keep the casino rally going on at least keep to current levels whilst plenty of RI/Placing of new shares is taking place...source of income coming in...or else they would get stuck holding new equity and raising funds cycle would come to an end...

[thebull3] 23/10/2009 11:59

diku, think we might be heading for a big fall soon, someones selling into todays strengh, personally i think, after todays gdp figures, give it a few days and i'd expect some banks to issue sell recommendations in the mining sector, as recent gains overdone.
Anyone else have an opinion on this?

[diku] 22/10/2009 15:07

849p short closed at 841p..