Antofagasta Share Discussion Threads

[diku] 21/9/2009 12:34

779.5p short closed at 764.5p...

I see Goodmans have upgraded ANTO to a Buy...what is their motive!...

[chillwill] 21/9/2009 10:15

I always look at the Anto share price and think, that looks a bit high, click onto this thread expecting to a post by diku.

Odd the mining index down around 2% today but anto up 0.7%, (although it hasn't paid much attention to the index, a bit of a lose cannon at times)

[diku] 21/9/2009 08:21

short at 779.5p...

[diku] 18/9/2009 08:13

773.5p short closed at 755p...

[code17] 17/9/2009 22:49

It's time to sell copper miners By Associate Editor David Stevenson
Sep 10, 2009

Copper is sometimes known as Dr Copper – the metal with a PhD in economics. That's because the copper price has traditionally been a leading indicator of what's in store for the world economy.
And like most other assets, copper prices have enjoyed a seriously good 2009 to date. What's more, as the FTSE 100 index yesterday rattled through the 5,000 barrier for the first time since last October, shares in copper producers were right at the front of the surge.

But one key indicator suggests that Dr Copper may well be wrong this time. The economy is nowhere near as healthy as he's suggesting...
Copper is usually a good barometer of economic activity
Copper and copper alloys are among the most important materials in our everyday lives. Most electrical equipment is full of copper wiring and circuits, and the metal is widely used in electricity generation and transmission. In addition, copper is an essential base metal in the construction industry, particularly in areas such as plumbing and roofing.

So if the economy is growing, demand for copper rises. That in turn, makes the copper price a good barometer of economic activity. If the price rises sharply, you might expect the global economy to get a lot better.
And that's just what it's been doing. The copper price has risen steadily over the first eight months of 2009, more than doubling since the start of the year. Further, shares in copper producers have been among the stock market's prime movers. Since 9th March, when markets bottomed out, Xstrata (LSE: XTA) has almost doubled, while Kazakhmys (LSE: KAZ) has more than trebled, compared with a 'mere' 40% rise in the FTSE 100 index.

And there has indeed been a slight upturn in industrial production around the world recently, helped by schemes such as the US government's 'cash for clunkers' programme, where owners of old bangers have been bribed to trade them in for new models. UK car sales have had a boost from a copycat programme.

Why Dr Copper is wrong this time

But Dr Copper could be giving the wrong signal this time. Because apart from the artificial pick-up in car production, there doesn't seem to be much improvement in other key copper-consuming industries.
For example, in the US, the world's second biggest copper user, a recovery in new housebuilding - which would require lots more of the metal - just isn't happening. What's more, despite politicians' attempts to 'talk up' economic recovery, American shoppers aren't buying into it. In fact, they are now paying back debt, rather than taking out more. US consumer credit has just fallen for the sixth month in a row - the longest decline since 1991 - by a record $21.6bn. That's five times the drop expected by economists, says Bloomberg.

In other words, it's not US consumer demand for copper that's driving up the price. In fact, without governments globally spending bucket loads of money they don't actually have – and which will have to be found via extra taxes, more borrowing or indeed the printing press – there wouldn't be much economic activity at all right now.
"We did some digging and found that all the world's economic rebound in 2009 – that is, 100% and then some – is being accounted for by fiscal stimulus", says David Rosenberg of Glusken Sheff. And not only is there no sign of organic private sector activity this year, "for 2010 we calculate that 80% of the growth that the consensus is penning in is derived from the public sector".

The reason for the copper price take-off

So why has the copper price taken off if overall demand is so unhealthy? It's all down to China. The Chinese have been stockpiling the metal after prices plunged by two-thirds from their mid-2008 levels. This has been partly funded by China's own $586bn government stimulus package, as well as some pretty racy levels of bank borrowing.
It's been nice for copper and copper producers while it lasted - but that could be about to change. "China's purchases were pretty much inventory adjustments and the restocking has ended", says Robin Bhar of Credit Agricole's Calyon unit. "We're not seeing a pick up in real economic demand or real activities".
In other words, the Chinese haven't been using the copper they've been buying – they've just been sticking it in storage. And once the stores are full again, they'll stop buying.
Where's the evidence for this? The Baltic Dry index, a measure of the cost of hiring ships, has plummeted by 42% from its June peak, while rental rates for Capesize bulk carriers, specifically used to ferry commodities around, have tumbled by as much as 50%. In other words, there's a lot less need for transport ships because the Chinese have stopped stockpiling. And that trend is set to continue, says Eugen Weinberg at Commerzbank, pointing to a downturn in metals prices.
Take a look at the Bloomberg chart below. This compares copper prices – the copper-coloured line – with the Baltic Dry index in blue....



And if you still hold shares in those copper stocks that have soared so much, well done. But shorter term, the prices of these shares look ripe for a setback.
Now looks a sensible time to take your profits.

[diku] 17/9/2009 08:14

small short 773.5p..

[diku] 16/9/2009 18:02

Looks like XTA is begging to be Shorted...since start of Sept it's gone from 800p to 1000p...

No Advice Intended...

[chillwill] 14/9/2009 18:13

XTA could be a nice short if you can get 950p over next couple of days, setting new highs while anto sleeps... (although anto is near all time highs, xta is still around 50% off)

[desparate das] 11/9/2009 16:40

closed out at 740 ealier on.
when the market turns it will turn fast. I will probaby watch it fall, just like I watched it rise and rise and rise a lot more - sitting on the side lines!

[chillwill] 11/9/2009 11:47

Lots of options expiry type things happening next week (ftse350 sept contracts expire on 15th according to tradefair), triple withing on friday. Next week will most likely see the markets turn and head south, maybe ftse100 might see 4500 again (previous resistance becoming support)

[desparate das] 10/9/2009 16:26

addd to my short at 733p
next support is at 700p

[diku] 10/9/2009 10:14

I am flat now...could have waited a bit more this morning before closing...but hindsight and all that...

[monsta2] 10/9/2009 10:08

are you short or flat now diku?

[diku] 10/9/2009 08:40

since the recent results this has shown signs of weakness...and the charts are not very encouraging...

[diku] 10/9/2009 08:05

766p short closed 756.5p..

[desparate das] 09/9/2009 16:44

shorted at 755p- not too sure which way its going to open

[desparate das] 09/9/2009 14:25

Hi Guys, will join you with a short if it moves below 760p

[diku] 09/9/2009 13:59

short again 766p...

[diku] 09/9/2009 08:16

767.5p short closed at 749.5p...

[diku] 08/9/2009 16:02

small short 767.5p...

[diku] 08/9/2009 14:37

I missed the opportunity this morning for a intraday scalp after my earlier post...looking for near 770p or higher...

[chillwill] 08/9/2009 14:25

lol, was just wondering when the next short position was coming from you diku... got any targets in mind?

[diku] 08/9/2009 10:14

me thinks shorting opportunity coming soon...

[beaudelaire] 02/9/2009 12:12

Mind the double peak.
If 700p doesn't hold - with market correction, I can see the sp
going down to 600p during September.

[diku] 01/9/2009 09:26

770.5p short closed at 734p...