Antofagasta Share Discussion Threads

[chillwill] 14/10/2009 22:41

5magic - I think the trend I've drawn is fine, the thicker inner part is the minor trend where it is rising, the higher and lower parts are oversold/overbought levels, it doesn't have to be exact to the point.

Bearing in mind those trend lines were drawn quite a while ago and extended into the future, I think it looks ok.

[diku] 14/10/2009 21:44

any gap up tomorrow morning could be a good shorting opportunity...

No Advice Intended...

[5magic] 14/10/2009 14:46

chill
think youve drawn your trendlines a bit wrong on the mining index, you have done it so the channel suits what youre looking for

no pint in doing that cos youre only kidding yourself then


better to be realistic

[5magic] 14/10/2009 14:45

doesnt want to come down, no strength in the dollar

[diku] 14/10/2009 12:51

short at 846p..

[chillwill] 14/10/2009 12:37

Not much room left in the index, maybe a bit of a spike higher but more downside over the next couple of weeks imo:

[chillwill] 14/10/2009 10:45

small short 840p

[chillwill] 12/10/2009 11:23

Good info there Ok, that's quite a big drop.

Could be interpreted in two ways:
1) There's support for copper as stockpiling is likely to increase if the price drops
2)Demand isn't high enough to need large stockpiles

[okblue] 12/10/2009 08:26

12/10/09 imformation from Kitco

Supporting the market, Shanghai's copper stockpiles dropped
7 percent last week to 89,822 tonnes, according to exchange
data released on Friday, down nearly 14 percent from a peak of
104,248 tonnes in mid-September. [MTL/CNSTX]

[code17] 11/10/2009 11:23

The whole sector has bubbled up enormously and has priced in numbers that weren't even evident before this recession started!!!
With false assumptions, they're exiting positions before bringing out the SELL recommendations, like they always do.

Interest rate noises are being made, exiting miners will be natural.
Some have already left the party.

Code
...........


Time to take profits from miners?
Top fund managers give their views

By James Phillipps
28 September 2009

With the mining sector up more than 80% since the March trough, fund managers are split on whether to keep riding the commodity wave or take profits.
Basic materials took a hammering last year, as the bubble burst on the back of the spike in risk aversion and the collapse of global economic growth prospects. Now, after being at the forefront of the rally, fund managers face the call of whether to hold or fold miners.

Richard Buxton, manager of the Schroder UK Alpha Plus fund, says miners could well see a correction in the short term, largely because of profit-taking and the fact that valuations have got well ahead of the Baltic Dry Index to which they are fairly closely correlated.
'Anything that has risen that rapidly could easily fall back and we could see mining shares down by 25% to 30%,' he said.

SVM UK Absolute Alpha fund manager Colin McLean exited his positions in Anglo American and Antofagasta this month. He is concerned that the recent commodity price rally has been driven more by restocking rather than ongoing activity, and he notes that China's stockpiling of iron ore is slowing.

PSigma Income fund manager Bill Mott is even more bearish and like McLean is put off by the fear that share prices are only being driven by restocking and speculation.
'The global economy is recovering, but growth is going to be anaemic for a few years. China and emerging markets will grow faster, but won't be able to decouple completely. The miners have moved ahead of the reality of the economic landscape,' he said.
Mott, along with many other managers, backs the long-term structural growth story, but with even the bulls saying a pull-back is likely, taking profits short term looks a prudent strategy.

[chillwill] 10/10/2009 22:17

Who said there had to be anything wrong with the company to make a profitable short?

Just like companies that are well and truly in the poop can rise (yell is a prime example), they need to get money off shareholders left right and centre as the banks have obviously told them to 'f' off, but the share price has doubled/tripled.

As for Anto, made a double bottom on the chart today, DOW closed strongly so may get 850p+ on monday (maybe even 5200 on the ftse), although copper was down due to climbing dollar, but investors may ignore this and no doubt the mines will push on.

[the diviner] 10/10/2009 15:42

Anyone who has been shorting mining stocks during the last six months must be well underwater.

Those who short, (via spread bets), cannot influence the share price in any way and that is why they like to give us a constant update of their short positions.

The only share price influence that they have is when they frighten a shareholder into selling.

The higher a share rises the more likely it is that the; I'm short brigade will give us the benefit of knowing the ins and outs of their shorts.

I have no idea where the market will go next and what direction ANTO will take but we are in a commodities super cycle and the numbers are still OK.

[chillwill] 09/10/2009 11:27

short closed at 811.5

[diku] 09/10/2009 10:45

827p short closed at 809p...

[elssworth] 08/10/2009 11:42

Bill Mott warns of mining bubble
By Dylan Lobo
September 2009


Widely respected fund manager Bill Mott is worried a bubble is developing in the mining sector.

The sector has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of signs of an improvement in global economic conditions and has also been a major factor behind the FTSE 100's drive towards 5,000 points.

But Mott, who manages the PSigma Income fund, struggles to make a case for a continuation of a strong bull run for miners. '[Economic] data is uncertain but there has been a large amount of Chinese re-stocking and we also know that there has been a large amount of speculative financial trading and we believe that a bubble is now evident in this sector,' he said.

Mott is equally skeptical of banks, which have also been popular plays in the market rally. 'With no yield and the opacity of their balance sheets, I find it impossible to accurately value the UK domestic banks,' he said. 'Just a minor change to their assets and liabilities could see them delivering multiple returns to shareholders on one hand or falling into full nationalisation on the other.'
--------------------------------------------
I believe we are seeing bubbles all over the place at the moment. However, there is clearly a very large drop in earnings for many miners...if not all? 6 months ago I was wondering if Xstrata was earning anything at all, and their shares were valued around £5.00 at that time? Lonmin did a massive shares issue, effectively making the shares worth 2/3 of what they were. Think they were valued around a fiver too. So where are they now? XTA @ £9.24 and LMI @ £17.22 . Well of course everyone paying these prices is pricing in a good recovery. With China scaling back their commodities purchases and the economic recovery actually being a myth. Miners are set to fall.

Doctor Copper will lead the way back down and has only been bouyed by China's purchases. The US housing market is not recovering yet and will in all likelyhood get worse. This is the start of the 2nd Great Depression and it is going to be a slogging long recovery. Shares have priced in a quick recovery like previous Recessions. This is a mistake on a grand scale.

[diku] 08/10/2009 10:26

CW...agree Gold is in a bubble similar to Oil at $147 last year!...it is speculation driven...why is Gold and Equities going up at the same time?...

[5magic] 08/10/2009 09:54

im looking to short around 860 if it gets there

[chillwill] 08/10/2009 09:33

Short at 830.6p, glad I moved my stop to break even yesterday!

Gold spiking up so much looks like trading, not investment which means it is possible it'll come back down as hard as it went up in the short term.

[diku] 08/10/2009 08:22

Since start of this week stock has gone from 720p to 827p so far...now that is some volatility or should I say a pump for a FTSE100 company...herd playing the volatile sector to exploit the index movement thus using this moves to make money...ie if you are on the right side of the fence..

[diku] 08/10/2009 08:14

short at 827p..

[grgkecer] 08/10/2009 07:25

The Diviner
Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that Antofagasta has extended its African exploration for Cu(/Au) to Eritrea?

[the diviner] 07/10/2009 21:54

ANTO now has an African Gold Mine;

[chillwill] 07/10/2009 21:27

Alcoa done well, I wouldn't be surprised to see the mines move up tomorrow a couple of % tomorrow