Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[3put] 05/1/2022 21:26

When can we have a comprehensive update about Lidsey and company plans?Since the company has so much knowledge and experience of the site. why is it considering a farm out and why cant it just drill on an urgent basis and bring the site to production in a few months? Asked on 13 June 2021
Seismic has been reacquired and new and old lines must be reprocessed together and alongside the new depth conversion work performed last year. We are hopeful this will be achieved within 6-8 weeks. We will still need planning permission for a side track although we are confident that this site is a low impact site from a planning perspective and we have had initial discussions with planning officers and advisers.

Estimates of the cost of a side track (perhaps £1.5m depending on the final target destination within the reservoir) would steer us toward consideration of a farmout or some other royalty based financing arrangement, rather than burden the company with equity raising before First Gas. This is particularly so as it is rare for licensees with an 80% interest effectively to sole risk such a drilling operation. If we are to seek third party funding, or a farmout, then a Competent Person’s Report would be advisable on an asset of this potentially signficant size. Before that point, and likely on completion of seismic reinterpretation, there will be a presentation to our shareholders on the financing options for feedback.

[3put] 05/1/2022 21:25

Hi, can you comment on your confidence levels of a successful Saltfleetby sidetrack? Indeed, can you comment in general terms on the impact a positive or negative outcome will have on the project economics.
Thank you. Asked on 15 June 2021
As the term P90 suggests, we have a >90% level of confidence that the side track operation will be successful and it will find the payzone. That high level of confidence exists because the Field is so well mapped by seismic, matched against a cutting record from 8 wells and a multitude of side tracks. Whilst all drilling operation have operational risks, we see these at worst as giving rise to delay (and so increased cost) in the drilling programme rather than the impairing our ability to extract hydrocarbon at the approximate pressures and quantities which we have communicated to shareholders and are contained within our CPR.

[solo4yous] 05/1/2022 21:17

Note the eco warriors dare not accept 88e WCAT Zphr or HZM success not FAR ALL IS WELL HERE2.022p here we come

[clottedq] 05/1/2022 21:03

I really don't know why Lucan and chums bother issuing deadlines... they NEVER EVER meet them.

Surely, it's stretching what credibility remains here to claim that despite several months worth of their most recent delays it makes no difference whatsoever to their predicted delivery of First gas... Yeah right!

Obviously they think The Market and their shareholders are as stupid as they are?

IMHO, we'll be lucky to see first gas before the hedges kick in - and even then it will be months later before they can establish concrete commercial production numbers OR NOT!

Geothermal anybody?

CQ ;-)

[3put] 05/1/2022 20:16

Some board posters are saying that a side track done in November would delay First Gas by up to 3 months. This sounds like nonsense. Can you comment? Asked on 21 September 2021
No it would emphatically not delay First Gas by three months. In fact there is no reason for it to delay First Gas by any material length of time and it is certainly not in the plan that it does. We are planning to execute the limited foundation work required beforehand and move heavy equipment in both before and after the drilling programme and will be following this week’s HAZOP with further SIMOP (Simultaneous Operations) planning which will allow for sensibly risked continuous working on the site during the programme. Again this poster may have misunderstood the nature of the equipment coming onto site, almost all of which is skid-mounted and pre-fabricated for immediate tie-in to the pipework and control lines. Thus some of the equipment won’t come on until February but none of the units will require on-site fabrication beyond connection work.

[3put] 05/1/2022 20:16

Few big buys today, follow the money

[solo4yous] 05/1/2022 18:54

Try saying pump and dilution galore on 88eNow approaching 2p per shareIt's market cap still RISING with regular dilutons!!!

[solo4yous] 05/1/2022 18:44

Justbadly claimed he wouldn't be posting anymore Is this environmental activist addicted?

[jtidsbadly] 05/1/2022 18:36

Would someone (someone who knows, please) remind me what “first gas” means? Is it the first hint of gas to arrive at the wellhead, after which there are lots of other things that have to be done before it’s connected to the pipeline? Or is it the start of commercial production? If it’s the first, how long is the period between first gas and cash flow from gas sales?

[3put] 05/1/2022 18:04

There has been much recent comment on the investment forums about how long the sidetrack would take to drill at Saltfleetby. Certain posters have claimed that they have internal company documents that say this will take 16 weeks. Please can you let me know if this is correct or if you expect it to take a different amount of time?

Also being speculated about is the volume of gas that has been hedged. It has been claimed that you have hedged 70% of 10mmscf/d and therefore the sidetrack has to be completed and everything has to run well for the project to be viable. Please could you confirm if this is correct or if the hedge is for different figures? Asked on 23 September 2021
We would be surprised and disappointed if the drilling part of the programme exceeded 28 days and the entire programme involved more than 7-10 days either side. On behalf of the Board, we have never heard or seen of any internal document which suggested we were planning for a 16 week side-track at Saltfleetby and we would challenge the poster to produce it. For that matter I haven’t heard of a drilling programme anywhere to these depths which could conceivably take 16 weeks – except perhaps on Mars, which is possibly where your poster hails from.

Supplementally, one poster has pointed out that the Planning Application allowed for 16 weeks time. This is not some “internal document” which the poster only had access to, but part of an application that is publicly available. Every company puts in their application for more time than is absolutely necessary in every sphere of life. This is hardly news. We reiterate drilling to these depths does not take 16 weeks as every reasoning investor in this industry knows.

The other assertion is equally bizarre and must be challenged. We have already clearly stated that the hedge was for “approximately 70% of the Company’s future gas sales …. under a conservative projection” and this was prudently set by the lenders, based, as we understand it, on their own estmates of achievable flow from the existing wells and excluding the contribution from the side track. Otherwise it would obviously not be a conservative projection.

[solo4yous] 05/1/2022 18:03

Boring headinmybum..Angus worth £30m alone

[3put] 05/1/2022 18:03

I have just checked your planning statement on slide 13, It states the sidetrack duration will take up to 16 weeks as mentioned from another poster. Please could you clear this query up once and for all. Asked on 1 October 2021
As now already noted, all applicants for permits and permissions in any walk of life give themselves much more time to complete a task than is necessary. This is because of the length of time and the cost incurred in obtaining the permission in the first place. They will then advise to market, at commencement of operations, a shorter period and expect to come in on the short end of that.

Reabold for instance advised six to ten weeks for drilling the West Newton WNB1 and completed in 6 weeks before moving onto the sidetrack. This was drilled to 2250 m. We are side-tracking from about 1150m to a Measured Depth (including horizontal sections) of about 3000m or 1850 metres of drilling. Nor are we doing a well test which might extend the programme, because we are moving straight from drilling into production here, so there is no need for a well test.

The hardest rock in Europe gives a rate of penetration of about 3m/hour (see page 6 of hxxps://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/pdf/IGAstandard/SGW/2017/Baujard.pdf). That would imply 600 hours here or 25 days/3-4 weeks of continuous drilling. Even assuming the drilling was no more than half of the time advised, then to drill through this much granite would be only be 7 or 8 weeks.

Granite of course wears drill bits faster and there is much changing of drilling equipment when addressing such hard rock. We are not drilling through granite in Cornwall or Scotland but through sandstones, clays, coals and limestones in Lincolnshire. We anticipate 20 odd days of 24/7 drilling – so a rate of penetration of over 12m/hour (verify by page 29 of Halco’s helpful graphs on rates of penetration hxxps://www.halco.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/A-Z-Drilling.pdf). Of course drilling is not the only workstream here, and even if we were to more than double the time, to suggest five to six weeks of work, we would actually expect the rig to be down inside that envelope. Things can go wrong and extend the timetable – we have always been frank about that – but this is a reasonable verifiable estimate.

What disturbs me about assertions by this poster (and concert parties) – and they are hardly the first instances of obvious falsheoods deliberately spread – is that he holds himself out to be a knowledgeable investor and could have fact checked any of this with online sources in a matter of minutes. Worse still by claiming to have discovered an “internal̶1; company document he implies some great conspiracy by the Company and its Board, rather than sharing his source from the outset and pointing to the very obvious conclusion here: that people give themselves ample leeway in any official permission!

[headinthesand] 05/1/2022 17:48

As I've said more than once before, I am expecting a manufactured rise in the share price leading up to January 13th. That's the way these things invariably go.

The two pairs of questions remain, though. The first pair that'll get an answer is "How many new shares, George? And placed at what price?", followed (hopefully only) a few months later by the literally existential questions "How much gas, George? And by when?"

[solo4yous] 05/1/2022 17:25

Nice buysIf it's warrantsThen this is doing a EUA ON FIRST GAS

[3put] 05/1/2022 17:17

Lots of technical questions answered on Angs website.

[3put] 05/1/2022 17:17

Civil Works

We havent seen any evidence of civil works starting at SFB. Concrete foundations will be required for the equipment and ISBL pipe work.

Equipment power generator & switchgear was planned to arrive in October, Separators storage tanks & ground flare was planned to arrive this month November, Gas compressor also in November – see 11 August 2021 RNS No. 34411.

Having all the necessary foundation completed will save time. Can you please clarify as to whether the civil works have started? If not, why not? Thank you. Asked on 25 November 2021
We have answered the civil engineering question elsewhere. As regards specific equipment, our date of February 2022 for First Gas takes into account delays on the skids as detailed in RNS of 30 November.

[3put] 05/1/2022 17:16

The Hedge on gas production/sale of gas, is fixed for 36 months. a member on LSE chat board has stated that even if the loan is paid of early, The Hedge remains in place for the remainder of 36 months. Is this true? Asked on 20 December 2021
Yes, the hedge is for a fixed term on a declining balance which roughly aims to decline wiith the scheduled loan repayments. It would be very likely (asusuming we succeed in obtaining target production from the side track, itself 100% unhedged, and representing windfall gains at present forward gas prices) that the loan would repay earlier, but the hedge would be fixed on that scheduled loan amortisation profile.

However it would be open to the company to break or reset the hedge once the loan was repaid – although this would incur a normal mark to market charge – allowing for more dynamic hedging – i.e. picking particular moments to reset the hedge. The amount of hedged production after, say, two years would be less than c 25% of total production (including production from the sidetrack).

[3put] 05/1/2022 17:16

Another big buy after hours

[solo4yous] 05/1/2022 17:11

Aw eco environmental activist groups fretting As too idiots lol Love it

[clottedq] 05/1/2022 17:09

George Lucan said:

Blah bla blah bla blah... Blah bla blah bla blah...Blah bla blah bla blah...

Rough translation IMHO:

Deadlines will be missed... financial projections will always be hopelessly wrong and operational milestones will never be achieved... But... far distant rainbow projects will be promoted by our BB Cheerleaders - wherever possible - to justify continued payment of our exorbitant salaries - for as long as humanly possible.

(we learnt this trick from The Master: Share-coin Sanderson of U-Dog.)

CQ ;-)