Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[sincero1] 26/10/2021 13:46

hits - they have stated the reasons for improved confidence on the success of the sidetrack and everything they are doing only points that way also ..... i appreciate that with a negative disingenuous agenda it is difficult to swallow but its undeniable ... ultimately time will tell of course but i am happy to be holding ...

[headinthesand] 26/10/2021 13:28

Sincero, ANGS has to my knowledge never been clear at all on whether a successful sidetrack is essential to meeting the hedge (and also its other already incurred financial obligations).

I have long suspected that this is the case, but it's never been confirmed one way or the other by the company.

It's now clear from the hedged volumes being finally revealed that the numbers are only going to work if said sidetrack is a success - and I remember a recently piece of ANGS-released info stating that they hoped that a successful sidetrack would double produceable volumes.

It's very much looking like this has to prove to be the case, because without a successful sidetrack, those hedged volumes ain't conservative. Furthermore, assuming any sidetrack is going to be successful - let alone having a production-doubling effect - is definitively NOT conservative.

No wonder they're rushing to drill the sidetrack as early as possible then - but it's a digital punt, especially given the history of failed sidetracks from that particular well. And on that basis I really can't how anyone can have "ever growing confidence" about the results of any sidetrack drilling before the latest attempt has been made.

Someone remind me... what was Poundland's best ever average production volumes back in its heyday? I seem to remember approx 5 mmscfd max.

[ja51oiler] 26/10/2021 13:09

Hits

Production for 2022 shows 2.8 BCF
Production for 2023 & 2024 shows 3.6 BCF

That seems a bit odd as they say the sidetrack is to be started in January. Seems a big difference.

[sincero1] 26/10/2021 12:54

hits " Damn but ANGS is going to need that sidetrack to a) be successful and b) deliver...." errrr that is what they have been saying for a while now with ever growing confidence... but the resident loons still keep trying to spin a negative ... all very disingenuous ...

[chickbait] 26/10/2021 12:52

So HITS The 16% overrun for the side-track may need additional funding if they are hoping to do this before 1st gas no?

[headinthesand] 26/10/2021 12:46

Just had a look at the actual volumetric info on the hedge, as these numbers have FINALLY been released.

Remember, the hedge is allegedly "c. 70% of conservatively hoped for production volumes"?

Well, for nine months starting from Oct next year, ANGS has hedged over 5 mmscfd. Which would mean that their "conservatively hoped for productions volumes" over that period must be around 7.5 mmscfd???

That does NOT sound conservative to me. I think I am right in saying that Poundland only averaged 5 mmscfd back in its heyday, falling back to just 2.5 mmscfd, during its last six months in operation.

Damn but ANGS is going to need that sidetrack to a) be successful and b) deliver....

[chickbait] 26/10/2021 12:44

The CPR also notes a 16% anticipated cost overrun on the costs of the side-track.

Does anyone have an idea of the original cost for the side-track.

Is this a subtle plug for another fund raise?

As we had already guessed a Malcy interview is overdue. Had the Flaggstaff plug this morning but no interview. Are they saving this for another pump?

[sincero1] 26/10/2021 12:25

its like dads army on here ..
13reallyneedsahobby47 as cpt mainwaring - pompous and full of self importance frequently proven wrong .
jtisadly as pvt frazer, miserable pessimistic everything is doomed .
Ja51contractvoidoiler as lance corporal jones , always one step behind the rest , excitable and always near hysterical .
uclot - pvt pike , naïve, childish , makes pointless comments and easily lead.

[ja51oiler] 26/10/2021 12:17

Jezz....half a million in interest in 4 months!! Page 55

[sincero1] 26/10/2021 12:17

yawn.... a positive rns followed by manic negative supposition from the resident disingenuous old grey brigade ... who would've thought it.....

[1347] 26/10/2021 12:14

Yes they've hedged over 5 MMSCFD October 2022 to June 2023, why did they need to do that? Surely you'd only need to hedge the volumes sufficient to cover the loan repayments so why so high? It means the side tracks has to succeed if they have contracted to hedge those volumes otherwise the JT scenario kicks in.

[1347] 26/10/2021 12:08

PS: What's this Minimum distribution to licensees if profit > £600k pcm? Is that on top of the royalty payments and something else they conveniently ommitted to mention?

[1347] 26/10/2021 12:07

So the £12m loan they didn't need came with covenents that they never informed market about? As costs are overrunning (again)I still struggle to see how they can make the first payment with interest and retain enough in the bank to satisfy that condition. I've pencilled in May 2022 for first gas, they still say Feb 2022, nearest the pin?

[jtidsbadly] 26/10/2021 12:01

HITS: re your recent post elsewhere, the details of the hedged volumes per month is set out in one of the tables. They’ll need some sidetrack production from next October unless production from the existing wells beats conservative targets.

Why do they say in a Q&A that they’re not planning a CPR update and then produce this? He makes it all up as he goes along, what?

[ja51oiler] 26/10/2021 12:00

Yea and the 8% gross kicks in when only 85% of the loan is repaid!!

[jtidsbadly] 26/10/2021 11:54

There’s also this:

“1] Minimum bank balance to exceed rolling three months of interest payment plus minimum loan repayment”

Does anyone know what the minimum loan repayment is? The interest will be about £350,000 for 3 months. If the minimum loan repayment is one year’s worth of the £12mm 4-year amortising loan, it’s another £3mm, presumably. So are they required to maintain a balance of £3.35mm.? If so, they’re going to need quite a lot more capital to complete the project. They’ll have only £8.6mm. of the loan money available to spend. What am I missing?

In addition, the table 6:10 on about p55 suggests that the royalty applies from day one. I thought it applied only from the date the loan is repaid. What am I missing? It’s quite a lot of money.

[headinthesand] 26/10/2021 11:49

Bit of a non-event, that RNS IMHO.

Updated CPR merely sating the bleedin' obvious (if gas prices have risen, ANGS's potential revenue increases in line... no sh*t, Sherlock).

Uncertainty on when being able to start the sidetrack drill - only interesting thing there is that ANGS seems determined to drill this as early as possible - even if that pushes back production start (which it might, depending pn when started).

No other extra info worth talking about, apart from Brockham PL235 lience being extended by 5 whole years? That's a long time? However, it does mean that any spectre of needing to stump up abandonment costs for Brockham have been firmly kicked well down the road.

To support my "non-event" opinion, the market doesn't seem to be thrilled into frenzied buy action by today's RNS. I strongly expect it is waiting on cold hard numbers on the only two questions that matter... "How much gas and by when?" After all this time and given ANGS's undeviating track record, it's not going to set the slightest store by estimates and predictions any more... "Show us the money".

[clottedq] 26/10/2021 11:32

Malcy (the paid mouthpiece):

"George Lucan comments on domestic gas supply and Angus is a senior player in this market and its importance is more than significant..."

WHAT! REALLY?

Anguish is a "senior player" in the gas supply market. Well this must come as a BIG SHOCK to other producers in this space who "ARE" actually PRODUCING GAS.

Anguish DO "NOT" CURRENTLY PRODUCE ANYTHING = FACT!

Certainly NOT any gas - just the usual hot air.

Why hasn't the share price responded positively to today's news?

Because - following their past 100% record of FAILURE... nobody believes a word of anything they say.

Only DOING & DELIVERY will make a jot of difference from now on.

p.s: Still ZERO new director buys.. I wonder why?!?!


CQ ;-)

[jtidsbadly] 26/10/2021 11:18

The Interim MD said this six days ago:

“In addition we are pleased to report that all gas process equipment requiring shipping is either now in country or in the sea lanes. This has been of particular concern to our procurement team and as a consequence, despite ongoing logistical bottlenecks at UK customs and with haulage, we now have a much higher level of confidence in our scheduling for construction and commissioning."

Does anyone think it’s a bit naughty to say this when you know there’s an important part that’s not been shipped and is going to be quite late? I know it’s not part of the gas plant, it’s a sidetrack issue but it seems a bit misleading to me.

[sincero1] 26/10/2021 11:11

on cue ja51contractvoidoilers attempt at a negative spin .... all very orchestrated it seems .... so all 4 of the old grey window lickers have attempted a negative spin and all look very disingenuous indeed.....

[ja51oiler] 26/10/2021 11:00

It makes interesting reading that's for sure. The biggest caveat is all the information being supplied by Angus again...Seems even OIL doesn't believe them on the Feb 15th first gas date Angus gave them.

The hedges are variable depending on the time of year! And the minimum bank balance is going to prove problematic very shortly. So as suspected it's far from a "value play" and the sidetrack has turned out to be far harder than they imagined! Another new pump in a couple of years' time to increase pressure also!
It's going to be disappointing reading for the cheerleaders.....if they actually bother to read it which they haven't, reading some of the comments here and over on the other side.

[sincero1] 26/10/2021 10:58

chuckle chuckle... jtisadly really struggling to spin a negative here... awww bless .. the most disingenuous, duplicitous, mendacious poster ...

[jtidsbadly] 26/10/2021 10:17

The author of the report has distanced himself from the key assumptions on which it’s based. He hasn’t discussed the hedges in the context of their implications in the event that production disappoints. These are the key points surely?

The reference to the Lenders, in which the report refers to oversight by their experts, suggests that it’s Mercuria, not the new boys, who are the key lender.

[1347] 26/10/2021 09:34

So in turn it all depends on that side track. Just how many people does it take to drill one in a known field? More questions than answers here.

Why wasn’t the long lead time piece of rig equipment ordered sooner?

They said they would mobilise the rig for October yet they still don’t have a date for that?

Why do they only now indicate they need 3D seismics?

They say they are drilling experts when it comes to promoting GeoThermal rainbows but have to engage a group of drilling experts, including this Dutch company, for each element of the drill for a side track on a known gas field that has already been drilled multiple times by others?

Why do they need a new Wells Manager when they engaged Mike Wells specifically because of his knowledge and experience in that field?

Despite all those experts they then also need to engage this Aberdeen company to review the drill programme?

On top of all of that it's then reviewed by the senior lenders own upstream technical committee?

Why have they not updated market about the timelines for the EA approvals? What can be progressed without those approvals?

It’s getting more complex than the NASA Moon programme.

[sincero1] 26/10/2021 09:17

oh look it was uclot ... still struggling mentally i see... just get to therapy .... remember this is the person who claims to own shares and is underwater .. you would think any positive news would be welcomed ... just goes to show how brainwashed he is .....