Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[3put] 22/10/2021 20:27

There is no hedge on production until July 2022. What is the value of all production from March 2022 to July 2022 at the prices on the present NBP Heren forward curve for these months with and without the side track? Asked on 21 September 2021
The short answer is the field ,on the original CPR plateau volumes but at the latest forward curve prices, might generate £17 mllion over those four months with the side track and about £8.5m without it. Angus share is 51%. Ordinary opex might be about £0.6m excluding debt service.

The forward prices from are given below in $/MMBTU (approx pence/therm equivalent in brackets). Prices from ICE for contracts for Q2 in pence/therm in particular seem to be a penny or two better which is probably the £/$ exchange rate (see

Heren March $28.583 (213p); April $16.679 (119p); May $14.260 (102p); June $13.774 (98p), given a conservative conversion rate of volume (mmscf) to heat value (therms) – i.e. multiply mmscf by 10500 to get therms – the field would generate in total over those four months gross revenues for all partners of £17.1 million at 10mmscf/d (i.e. CPR plateau production with side track) or £8.6 million at 5 mmscf/d (i.e. CPR lower plateau production with no sidetrack). Operating expenses for full year 2022 according to CPR might be of the order of £2.3m and therefore for this period would be c. £0.6m.

All of this information is already publicly available, and we stress these are presently notional numbers arrived at approxmately and that these prices are not hedged in any way and therefore might not be available come production in March etc. However whilst the final outcome may vary considerably, we and our partners do anticipate strong demand for gas in the coming years regardless of short term price effects.

[3put] 22/10/2021 20:26

There has been much recent comment on the investment forums about how long the sidetrack would take to drill at Saltfleetby. Certain posters have claimed that they have internal company documents that say this will take 16 weeks. Please can you let me know if this is correct or if you expect it to take a different amount of time?

Also being speculated about is the volume of gas that has been hedged. It has been claimed that you have hedged 70% of 10mmscf/d and therefore the sidetrack has to be completed and everything has to run well for the project to be viable. Please could you confirm if this is correct or if the hedge is for different figures? Asked on 23 September 2021
We would be surprised and disappointed if the drilling part of the programme exceeded 28 days and the entire programme involved more than 7-10 days either side. On behalf of the Board, we have never heard or seen of any internal document which suggested we were planning for a 16 week side-track at Saltfleetby and we would challenge the poster to produce it. For that matter I haven’t heard of a drilling programme anywhere to these depths which could conceivably take 16 weeks – except perhaps on Mars, which is possibly where your poster hails from.

Supplementally, one poster has pointed out that the Planning Application allowed for 16 weeks time. This is not some “internal document” which the poster only had access to, but part of an application that is publicly available. Every company puts in their application for more time than is absolutely necessary in every sphere of life. This is hardly news. We reiterate drilling to these depths does not take 16 weeks as every reasoning investor in this industry knows.

The other assertion is equally bizarre and must be challenged. We have already clearly stated that the hedge was for “approximately 70% of the Company’s future gas sales …. under a conservative projection” and this was prudently set by the lenders, based, as we understand it, on their own estmates of achievable flow from the existing wells and excluding the contribution from the side track. Otherwise it would obviously not be a conservative projection.

[jtidsbadly] 22/10/2021 20:23

1347: I think “them” is the mot juste in such cases.

[1347] 22/10/2021 19:58

JT I've no real idea about that combination, it's quite some time since I've tried it (but not the Lucan range you understand). I think it might suit HITS though, as he/she seems to have become a bit confused about things recently, so maybe something that ticks both boxes will work from him, or her, or it, as the case may be?

[jtidsbadly] 22/10/2021 18:42

1347: yes, that’s the chap! Amazing how soon one forgets. He’ll have to play characters more closely in touch with their feminine side from now on, I should think. Or he could give the jacket another outing but combine it with a nice skirt from the Lucan range, might as well be hung for a sheep..

[1347] 22/10/2021 18:38

JT You've lost me with the binary stuff I'm afraid, for me the jacket is either on or off. By the way did you know that there are only 10 kinds of people? Those that understand binary and those that don't.

[1347] 22/10/2021 18:27

HITS I certainly would not use the term good to describe not being able to pay a loan when it's due and having to stump up £110 k because of that.

Actually the comparative term is better, i.e. in that it's better than having to default. However I'm not going to spend hours discussing semantics on here when NASDAQ is still open and my dancing on lines class starts soon.

PS: Wrong again, not jealous at all, I could have done the same at a higher price earlier this weeek. No I certainly don't want to be you, perish the thought. Anyway it'll be 4 p by Friday, cud told me so and he's never wrong.

JT Not sure which little musclebound chap you're referring to, Daniel Craig or something? Not seen to much in the way of muscles on him though.

[jtidsbadly] 22/10/2021 18:07

1347: very amusing, or LOL as I understand is the appropriate term from the Internet argot. Both very good.

Not James Bond, no. The little musclebound chap who used to play him in the films. He wore it to the London premiere. Consequently abandoned any remaining credibility as a ruthless assassin. May have cost the film’s producers a packet. I wonder if they do one in “broccoli̶1;? No, I haven’t got the confidence to wear these non-binary items.

[1347] 22/10/2021 17:56

JT James Bond jackets now is it? Are you getting one of them for Christmas, should go well with your rousers?

[1347] 22/10/2021 17:53

JT Oh there's more..

28th June 2019

"The Saltfleetby opportunity which has been brought to Shareholders fits exactly this profile and will also complement the near term stable cash flow we anticipate, with a high level of confidence, from our onshore oil interests at Balcombe."

This one makes me laugh though from 6th July 2018

"The Board has complete confidence in Paul Vonk to lead the Company forward and that he will continue to be supported by Mr. Tidswell-Pretorius during this particularly exciting period for our operations.”

[jtidsbadly] 22/10/2021 17:53

1347: oh no, Ocebot syndrome.. spinning and spinning so you don’t know which way you’re facing. Who, me?

Incidentally, that non-binary light raspberry (“pink straw”) jacket modelled by the chap who used to play James Bond was from the Lucan range, it appears! His Lordship will soon be relieved of the responsibility of providing financial support to his family, what?

[1347] 22/10/2021 17:47

HITS You are now becoming quite good at being wrong. To ensure that you are clear on this point, if not on other points, I have never liked Country and Western music (it was JT that mentioned Tennessee Ernie Ford, he may be a fan), nor do I like dancing on lines, I was merely pointing out that some of us know the difference between the said Tennessee Ernie Ford and Pinky Floyd. Anyway I suggest you buy back in next week and return to the Lobser pot with your new found friends.

[jtidsbadly] 22/10/2021 17:43

1347: Oh, hang on a bit longer: the first and last of these are quite good. There must be something in that Chiswick air. Or water..

Mr. Vonk, 2016/17 annual Report and Accounts:

“We remain confident the successful execution of our business plan will be transformational for the Company and the long-term energy security of the United Kingdom.”

25th October 2017, re Brockham planning application:

““ The Board of Angus Energy does not take any decision concerning our shareholders lightly. We are confident our actions today have been given thoughtful consideration and fully expect this intermediate step to have minimal impact on our current business plan. “

February 2020, re Balcombe. From Drill or Drop:

Angus Energy’s managing director, George Lucan, said in a statement:
“We are confident that our Hydrogeological Risk Assessment fully and professionally addresses the proposed works and look forward to the review of our application”

Chairman’s statement, March 2020, Report and Accounts 2018-19:

“The technical, planning and regulatory hurdles are being steadily overcome, and we remain confident that they can be; we believe we should be able to replace even some of the more optimistic revenue expectations which shareholders had for the Brockham BR X4Z well with gas revenues from this field over the next decade.”

Dear oh dear.

[headinthesand] 22/10/2021 17:31

JTids, 1347 is simply manfully (a generous use of that term, but still, I'm a generous guy) trying to tease, so no offence is being taken.

He doesn't seem to understand that the adjective "good" can readily be used in a comparative sense, rather than an absolute one, bless him. I am certainly not going to take him to task over this, because to berate the so severely semantically afflicted would be nothing but churlish.

1347 has enough problems as it is, trying to justify his baffling love for music that glorifies people's wives leaving them, their dogs dying and their pick-up trucks breaking down, without my adding to them. I believe his condition is known as Dolly Syndrome - or possibly Tammy Syndrome.

But no matter. We all should show sympathy, since it's crushingly embarrassing for the sufferer.

Good weekend, all.

[1347] 22/10/2021 17:29

JT It's worse than I thought, now you have ocebot syndrome as well as Stockholm syndrome. Oh well just me and the tin man then now (and we're the only ones with shares).

[jtidsbadly] 22/10/2021 17:10

1347: I think the discussion re abandonment is largely academic in Angus’s case. I think the thing will either have sufficient cash flow or the company will have been dissolved, by the time any enforcement action were undertaken. The OGA will have its hands full of Angus, what with the sidetrack well test, or absence of one. Similarly the EA and the HSE..

You’re being mean to HITS, who, with Mirasol, Nomlungu and the odd contribution from WG818 (is it?) is doing pretty well talking sense on the other site. I’m sure he’d agree that the need to extend the Knowe loan repayment deadline speaks volumes of their difficult financial situation and is in that sense bearish. The fact that they no longer need to pay £1.4mm to Knowe next April is, however, a small relief to them and may enable them to limp on until July. To that extent, it’s bullish.. What?

[1347] 22/10/2021 16:48

JT Yes it's a bit strange to say the least to say it's only slightly delayed by taking the forecast from a few weeks ago rather than the original ones. Still I note they now have a higher level of confidence than before, as in the latest RNS.

"In addition we are pleased to report that all gas process equipment requiring shipping is either now in country or in the sea lanes. This has been of particular concern to our procurement team and as a consequence, despite ongoing logistical bottlenecks at UK customs and with haulage, we now have a much higher level of confidence in our scheduling for construction and commissioning".

Oh hang though I found this from 19th June 2019, seems they were also confident then.

"At this stage the Directors are confident that reconnection at commercial rates is possible within the £2.5 million budget and advised timescale of completing work between May and August 2020."

JA - How long do they have before abandonment has to be done once the licence expires at Brockham, do you know? I also expect the OGA will want to expire the Balcombe licence now, given that they have no planning permission to do anything with it and appear not to have appealed.

Still I expect HITS will see that as a positve with his new world view.

[ja51oiler] 22/10/2021 15:48

JT
They may have no choice but to DE-comm the weald assets.

Balcombe as we have pointed out doesn't appear to have been appealed to the secretary of state.

Brockham license expires in 5 days' time. If they get it extended again by another 6 months this would be the 4th time!

Lidsey appears to have turned out far from as expected reading that RNS, The 2 other wells they refer to are outside the tiny license 5KM area to the south. The existing Angus wells Wells are already on the southern border of the license.

[3put] 22/10/2021 14:17

You don't need to point it out. Anyone who reads these board for more than 5m will quickly realise JT and his other accounts are trolling 24/7

[sincero1] 22/10/2021 13:47

have a nice weekend all ....

pahahahahahahaahahahha

[sincero1] 22/10/2021 13:47

and here are jtisadly recent comments about Mercuria :

"it's going to cost Mercuria lots of money"
"Maybe they can use Anguish's tax losses"
"I expect Mercuria to want Anguish to have more placings"
"I dare say Mercuria will be getting all its original demands met"
"I expect the loan terms to stipulate release of funds as and when needed and subject to Mercuria's specific approval"
"Id be surprised if we don't see the appointment of a Mercuria person as a Director there very shortly."
"The proposed loan terms are unaffordable. Mercuria must have something else in mind"
"For someone like Mercuria, this is a no-brainer. Tax losses that make pulling the plug on Anguish pretty well risk-free if they can't make money on the gas"
"If Mercuria finds itself strapped for cash, it's going to be a problem."
"...and Mercuria are in trouble, things could get awkward quite quickly, what?"
"Sharks"
"Hyenas"

Brown trousers on standby .... only plus is they go well with this old geriatrics living room colour scheme and slippers ...

[sincero1] 22/10/2021 13:45

jtisadly " in my view" Well as we all are now aware your view is not worth anything at all being so disingenuous mendacious and duplicitous . discredited and ridiculed constantly .

just for fun lets see those recent posts from this clown again:
5.7.21 "placing this week or next"
8.7.21"another placing or two in the next few months"
9.7.21 "" placing is in the queue and will come once the latest UKOG issue has been digested"
14.7.21 ""I'm expecting two placings this year"
21.5.21 "poor angus 0.20 soon" 23+ weeks ago. " share price into the sixties shortly " 23+ weeks ago.
"oga approval doubt" .
" financing doubt" .
" running out of money " weekly prediction for last 9 months.
" 0.15 by end of year".
" placing soon " daily prediction for last 10 months.
"its a pump & dump" - it wasn't.
"gas to Shell at current prices from New Year until July in decent volumes. I' put the chances of that at about 1%" "you should be pleased - that 0.70p re-entry level of yours is just round the corner.
and my favourite " They did run out of money towards the end of March, as we predicted" - And from the interim : As at 31 March 2021 the Group had cash of £591,000. As at 31 March 2021 the Group had net current assets of £1,351,000"

[jtidsbadly] 22/10/2021 13:44

1347: I take your point about the wine though. You may be onto something there.