Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 14/4/2021 08:00

Results for the year ended 31 December 2020

Financial Highlights

-- Results reflect lower production levels from Kestrel compared to the record level produced in 2019. 2020 volumes were 11% lower at 5.8mt which are expected to be the level the operators are targeting in the near-term

-- Coal prices were significantly impacted by the closure of Indian ports for a period in mid-2020 as a measure to contain the outbreak of COVID-19

-- Royalty income reflects a US$1.3m charge at Maracás Menchen due to monies owed to Glencore upon the termination of its offtake agreement

-- GBP34.0m in royalty related revenue (2019: GBP55.7m)
-- Total portfolio contribution of GBP37.0m (2019: GBP59.5m)
-- Operating profit of GBP22.1m (2019: GBP44.8m)
-- Loss after tax, which includes valuation and impairment charges, of GBP18.6m (2019: profit after tax GBP29.0m) which reflects a GBP44.2m valuation charge against Kestrel and impairments of GBP3.4m

-- Basic loss per share of 10.31p (2019: earnings of 16.06p)
-- Adjusted earnings(1) per share of 12.35p (2019: 20.41p)
-- Net debt at the year-end of GBP24.3m (2019: GBP28.8m) benefitting from the GBP15.2m of LIORC disposals made in December 2020, at a profit of GBP1.9m, in preparation for the financing of the Voisey's Bay stream acquisition

-- Kestrel represented 17% of the Group's royalty assets on the balance sheet (2019: 26%) expected to reduce further to 12% upon the acquisition of the Voisey's Bay cobalt stream in March 2021.

Outlook

-- The outlook for most commodities looks favourable for the near-term with increased government investment likely globally as a fiscal response to COVID-19

-- The Voisey's Bay transaction is expected to significantly alter the Group's revenue profile composition in 2021

-- The Group's exposure to base metals has increased to over 60% following the Voisey's Bay transaction, with the outlook for base and battery metals looking favourable for the year ahead

-- Kestrel volumes are expected to remain at similar overall levels in 2021, although the gradual reduction of the percentage of production sourced from within the Group's private royalty land is expected to commence in H2 2021

-- Maracás Menchen operator targeting increased activity in the year ahead with increased premium vanadium product sales being targeted and the sale of bi-products now underway

-- The Group has an active pipeline and financial flexibility to continue to add to its high quality royalty and streaming portfolio

[gateside] 13/4/2021 21:10

Thanks Deacon - Will wait for tomorrow's results then.

Glad to have bought in last week. The acquisition of Voisey Bay looks excellent and will help transition the company away from coal.

[the deacon] 13/4/2021 20:59

Yeah it was recorded. Usually a day or so before it becomes available, if past presentations are anything to go by. I'll keep an eye out for it and post here when available

[the deacon] 13/4/2021 20:58

Thanks LG. Yes, I assumed it'd come from this board as you say. Yes, he came across well, and is clearly frustrated by the ignorance of the market to the value on offer.

[gateside] 13/4/2021 20:43

I assume it was recorded, so is there a link to the presentation?

[lord gnome] 13/4/2021 20:29

I thought JT came across quite well. Clearly knew his strategy. The Potash question was me. I thought it worth asking in view of recent posts on here. He is obviously alive to the possibility. Let's see what the morning brings. I doubt that we will be disappointed.

[the deacon] 13/4/2021 19:38

Interesting presentation - especially the Q&A. Looking at royalties on carbon credits - that is very intriguing. Potash clearly a target right now. Also interesting that they're looking at expediting the coal assets - though JT will want to make sure any deal makes absolute sense financially.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/4/2021 17:50

News time and dividend confirmation, not sure we will get much post reporting period info in the morning as the Q1 update is so close now..? but we get what we get.. :o)

[the deacon] 13/4/2021 17:18

Presentation tonight, followed by results tomorrow morning

[madengland_] 13/4/2021 10:30

Topped up with my 21 ISA.... look forward to the next year and results tomorrow

[pete123456] 13/4/2021 08:47

topped up yesterday looking forward to break out of 140 level.

[r2oo] 12/4/2021 20:08

YepAnyone buying more in anticipation?

[pete123456] 12/4/2021 16:08

results Wednesday

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/4/2021 08:13

#The Deacon, another credit for the Q2 income, with four mile adding a little too, with some permitting progress at Salamanca, we could be hitting the uranium space sweet spot as prices continue to strengthen, in recent years climbing to CND35/lb and predicted to be 50/lb by 2024...

Green energy without nuclear just is not realistic no matter what the antis do or say, power supply is fundamental to sustaining economic balance as coal power reverses and then to enable growth, no growth in power supply results in no growth in economies...

[the deacon] 10/4/2021 23:46

I see that Cameco are restarting Cigar Lake later this month. Further good news for APF

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/4/2021 20:22

#fizzypop, 3.75p is expected, but we will see what we get confirmed on Wednesday morning, Q1,2,3 went up so the Q4 will be lower than last year..

A bit a bit of digging through Vale sales reports this afternoon has showed Cobalt production from VB for 2019 at 1608 tonnes, and 2020 at 1592 tonnes..

Income for APF based on the 2020 numbers and todays Cobalt prices would have been 1592*50,000*22.82%*0.82 credit ratio resulting in around USD 15M income from the royalty..

APF estimate for 2021 is USD 13-16M which stacks up neatly as 2021 is mostly open pit, and they transition underground from 2022 and then the grades go up to yield an average 23M income (price pending) up to the 7600 tonnes delivered cap before reducing.. :o)

[fizzypop] 10/4/2021 19:59

Our FY2020 results on Wed 14 April should declare the Final divi-Q4 which includes the special divi. This was 4.125p last year going ex-div in early June.
Looking for a stellar performance during H1 and planning on a topup before Wed next week.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/4/2021 12:04

#The Deacon, I started following EML when GC joined the team around his exit from SXX, he has a lifetime of experience in the potash space and is starting to assemble the team needed to move into a build next..

I particularly like the logistics for EML, they have a state run fertiliser producer on their doormat, OCP, who are currently shipping in 800KT a year of potash, so EML have a potential buyer next door and can undercut anyones price which usually involves shipping product from half way around the world to the user presenting strong cost savings for the buyer..

Very interesting times for APF, and what ever they acquire next... :o)

[sporazene2] 10/4/2021 11:25

The Deacon very fair points. If the asset and associated deal is good enough I wouldn't be surprised to see JT facilitate putting those missing pieces of the jigsaw into place. He seems to be very well connected and a deal maker.

[the deacon] 10/4/2021 11:05

My only concern with the Zinnwald project (and Khemisset for that matter) is whether the current operators tick the box for APF. Both are small and relatively inexperienced teams. Appreciate Emmerson have just brought James Kelly on board. The royalty/stream of course is on the asset and in a sense nothing to do with the operator, but APF's modus operandi over the years has been to offset any counterparty risk by selecting assets run by big, proven, well funded operators. Who knows, but certainly interesting times for APF and us as shareholders.

[the deacon] 10/4/2021 10:49

Yes my thoughts are Khemisset too. Potash is a great option for a royalty company, given the long mine lives they enjoy. Altius hold royalties over some of Nutrien and Mosaic's potash operations and some of the mine lives there are estimated at 1000+ years.

[sporazene2] 10/4/2021 10:36

I think has been mentioned here before Zinnwald would be an interesting project for us. Stable jurisdiction, battery metal and solar world current in administration so I would certainly expect a deal to be available.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/4/2021 09:52

#Flagon, indeed, and I have a suspicion it might be with EML as they move their Khemisset project forward, the ML was granted in Feb 2021, the ESIA put in on November 2020 and I do not think it is a coincidence that a recent presentation from them mentioned a royalty deal as part of their funding package to get things moving towards a mine build starting at year end 2021.., they have just done their 20% MCAP max main listing raise and moved to AIM to be able to do a much bigger one next.. [edit 38 year LOM + licence footprint expansion options]

Trident got a mention somewhere too, but a royalty was deemed too big for them, but sits neatly for APF and a USD50M deal and we know there is 1 of those in the making..

#Cocopops, have a look at the company mentioned above, but yes fertiliser MOP/SOP and road de-icing salt by product, so a 3 in 1 company looking for a funding package right now..

[flagon] 10/4/2021 09:12

Julian did mention potash in a webinar in early 2020