Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 24/4/2021 13:01

QuePassa23 Apr '21 - 15:42 - 10397 of 10398
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Almost any potential new institutional investor will see Kestrel and take flight.
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You raise a good point. I'm only back in here myself after their decision to make the Canadian cobalt acquisition, signalling, as I understand it, their decision to move away from carbon heavy fuels, towards Green. We need to see this progress continue, even if it means reduction in dividend.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/4/2021 16:31

The pennant coming to a point bang on schedule for the Q1 update next week, and ready for a TA breakout.., looking forward to news flow.. :o)

[quepassa] 23/4/2021 15:42

Almost any potential new institutional investor will see Kestrel and take flight.

Kestrel pays a handsome return to APF but the cost of being beholden to Kestrel is that the share price suffers as equity investors have increasingly little tolerance for fossil fuel exposure.

The share will continue to be in the doldrums until such time as APF divest their coal exposure.

But that's difficult to do as it's their cash-cow to pay dividends and to service bank covenants.

Forthcoming COP 26 and Biden's recent statements on emissions reductions and climate change will aggravate an already difficult situation.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[cocopah] 21/4/2021 22:27

The Deacon, finally managed to listen to the very interesting Proactive presentation. It was interesting that Julian mentioned (when questioned about his frustration about the share price) that they needed to “get their skates on” otherwise they would be “vulnerable to more highly rated companies”. Do you think he is genuinely worried about a potential takeover?

[woodhawk] 21/4/2021 08:55

I'm glad to see that APF have cleared up the confusion regarding this year's dividend payments. I've repurchased some of the stock I previously sold - thankfully a tad cheaper.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 21/4/2021 07:14

RNS on dividend timetable released, now payable August, November, December, February, so it is most likely the May payment slipped to keep us inside the lending criteria as already discussed...

[lord gnome] 21/4/2021 07:13

And there we have it. Persistence pays off and we have our full dividend schedule for the year. The three interim dividends are bunched up this year as expected, but hopefully we will be able to resume a smoother pattern in future years.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 18/4/2021 20:28

#Cocopops, we used to own 7.01% of LIORC which is now reduced to c1.61%, still just over 1M shares (CND38M/USD30M/GBP22M) which should generate CND3-4M/GBP1.75-2.25M income a year if iron ore prices stay where they are and if dividends repeat..

Our last GBP4.8M dividend landed inside our Q1 to be reported, we are about to find out what our position was at 31.03.2021 but it was there to liquidate if we need to fund the next royalty, Incoa should need USD 20M funding later this year, possibly Q4..

An APF 7p dividend + a special (9p total) on the new share capital is around GBP19M a year off the bottom line profit, so we need to at least cover this but 1.5-2.0 times cover would be better to keep building cash and paying debt down.. :o)

A very interesting year coming up..

[cocopah] 17/4/2021 21:49

LLB & Deacon ... do you think income might be a bit lower especially if the remainder of the LIORC investment is sold and used for another acquisition? I guess it depends if the investment is accretive. Not easy to follow the revenue stream. I’m still thinking £1.60 share price by year-end.🤷‍♂️

Thanks for the numbers LLB ... it does help!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/4/2021 21:04

#The Deacon, APF has a 1.525% NSR royalty with Mantos Copper over all copper produced at the Mantos Blancos Mine..

This project aims to increase the processing of the current Mantos Blancos concentrator plant to 7.3 million tons per year, allowing to increase production to approximately 50,000 tons of copper in concentrate per year..

The implementation and start-up is projected for the end of 2020, and will extend the useful life of Mantos Blancos until at least the year 2035..

At todays prices that is around USD7.0M | GBP5M a year, so we should start to see the ramp up impact in our Q1 at month end and build through 2021.. :o)

[the deacon] 17/4/2021 19:11

This is what Osisko reported with regards Mantos a couple of months back. Osisko have the silver stream on the mine..."Mantos Copper S.A. ("Mantos") continued construction of the sulphide concentrator expansion at the Mantos Blancos copper mine. The expansion is expected to increase the throughput of the operation's sulphide concentrator plant from 4.3 Mtpa to 7.3 Mtpa by Q4 2021 and extend the life of the mine to 2035"

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/4/2021 11:09

A revisit to the 2021 income now we know more about Kestrel/VB expected earnings, GBP55-62M total income best estimate, with upside from Kestrel pending coal pricing but we will get a much clearer picture from the Q1 update at month end, and firm up on what Mantos Blancos is delivering at >USD4 copper... :o)
14.4p EPS | 9-10p DPS | PE12 | SP175p target..?

Kestrel | GBP 20M (similar to 2020)..?
Maracás Menchen | 4M
Narrabri | 4M
Mantos Blancos | 5M..
Four Mile | 1M ..?
LIORC dividends | 4.8M in Q1 +2M rest of year | 6.8M total
Interest McClean Lake & Jogjakarta | 1.8M ..?
EVBC | 2.5M
McClean Lake principal 1.0M
Voiseys Bay | 10-12M

[the deacon] 17/4/2021 08:37

Proactive presentation from Thursday. Anglo Pacific starts at approx 1hr 7mins. https://youtu.be/3WWfDutRsDU

[johnrxx99] 17/4/2021 06:36

illiswilgig (?)I agree. As a CEO Mr T has to tread a careful path. The market seems to have accepted that.

[illiswilgig] 16/4/2021 11:50

I'm not sure that I'd read it as intentionally unclear - so much as being very careful with the wording. To avoid giving a negative impression - as they they can't pay the dividend yet, which seems to be the case, and causing another buying opportunity for me?

cheers

[the deacon] 16/4/2021 09:29

Interesting presentation at the Proactive One-To-One last night. Julian identifying manganese (again), rare earths and lithium as particularly attractive at the moment. Also said they're always keen on more copelr exposure. Thanks for the feedback LG. Frustrating, as it feels like they're trying to be intentionally unclear about what's happening with the dividend. Julian reiterated the 7p base last night. Seems to me that things are very tight as far as leverage headroom is concerned, and they need two or three months to work this through.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/4/2021 09:28

#LG much as we surmised, to aid cash flow, but probably more to do with keeping us inside the lending leverage criteria..

The Q1 update will be here soon enough, the T/A pennant is coming to a point just at the right time for further news and to trigger a breakout.. :o)

[woodhawk] 16/4/2021 09:17

Thanks, Lord Gnome, that's what I thought - nothing in May. Shame they couldn't be clearer.

[lord gnome] 16/4/2021 09:11

Ok, I have had half a response, which shed very little light on the situation and just muddied the water a bit more. I have asked for a detailed clarification.
Basically, reading between the lines, it is as we suspected. There will be no dividend of any description in May. The first interim and the final for FY21 will be closely bunched together to aid cash flow.
I will post again if I hear anything further.

[cocopah] 16/4/2021 08:39

Julian said that he was surprised that the share price hadn’t reacted more positively. Perhaps The recent trading range is a bit of punishment for the ‘jam tomorrow’ news on revenue and the divi delay?

LLB, Deacon & Lord Gnome ... I’m quite happy to wait for the jam however I’m not sure that income will be as robust as early as we think and it could take a little while. Thoughts?

[cocopah] 15/4/2021 14:22

Interesting in the podcast that Julian specifically mentions manganese. Thoughts?

[brian3777] 15/4/2021 11:42

Hi Deacon.

Thanks for the link, great video. Dig Deep.

I thought it was interesting how the company first came into existence through a mistake.

Also, when the aerospace industry comes back into production, how much this will effect the company.

Brian3777

[the deacon] 15/4/2021 10:06

Here's the recording of the results webcast from yesterdayhttps://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/606497ae560fbf10fcc505ea/6077fc8bef17a87d0488c093

[madengland_] 15/4/2021 09:57

Great interview thanks for sharing

[the deacon] 15/4/2021 08:27

Julian interviewed on the Dig Deep podcasthttps://omny.fm/shows/dig-deep-the-mining-podcast/the-vision-for-the-future-with-julian-treger