Anglo-eastern Plantations Share Discussion Threads

[trytotakeiteasy] 19/6/2013 09:58

update seems to have put the more on track.. although palm oil prices down a quarter on last year...

[hvs] 30/5/2013 18:51

lol !!!!!

There is one BORN every minute.

Must be down to the NHS.

lol !!!!!!

[trytotakeiteasy] 30/5/2013 18:44

IMS decent??? have you read it???

[lobby ludd] 30/5/2013 18:09

SP picking up in recent days on the back of a decent IMS, rising CPO ($860), and strengthening of $ against Indnesian/Malaysian currencies.

[bountyhunter] 21/3/2013 19:15

nice rise today ...not sure if there's anything specific behind it though

[lobby ludd] 22/11/2012 10:12

ims issued this morning.

[vinnegar] 02/11/2012 16:03

i like the stock - check out Figure 2 of the chart here:



in the long term the EPS growth is not coming only from the increase in price of the CPO but from the growth in the plantation area as well - it is far more significant driver than the CPO price...

given the company is sitting on a pile of cash, while other leveraged co's will face the squeeze from lower CPO prices AEP will simply sit this through (as they did in the past), buy some more land and keep planting...

[woracle] 02/11/2012 12:08

CPO average down from $1100 H1 to $850 H2. 23% fall.
In the circumstances, AEP has held up very well. Just look at the sector ...

[vinnegar] 02/11/2012 10:19

have I missed any recent bad news driving the share price so low or is it just the reaction to the lower palm oil prices? any insights?

[woracle] 02/10/2012 19:05

Well, nothing is a given short term. CPO price recovery is as unpredictable as they come. Without an increase in demand from world growth, the only catalyst near term to reduce supply and help a price recovery is El Nino due v soon. You have to be realistic and accept this years results will disappoint for all producers if CPO prices stay at these lower than forecast levels. Will it be undervalued as far as the market sees it ? These days, a foreward PE of 8.5 seems to be what the market can bear. I will need to update my own estimates with a H2 CPO average of $850.

[hvs] 02/10/2012 17:47

It will come back strongly.

In any case with AEP we have no worries. Its loads of dosh in the bank.

And still very very undervalued.

[woracle] 02/10/2012 15:16

Mistry predicted a fall in early Sept, and CPO trade between 930 and 1050 for Sept/Oct. He got the direction right which was a 50/50 chance, but he totally messed up the prediction. Its now below $800 due to oversupply, down a huge 8% today to a 3 year low. CPO has really capitulated in the last 5 days but you have to live with this short term volatilty these days. Soy prices are high so the gap is not sustainable for any real length of time.

[hvs] 24/9/2012 14:59

Mistry at it again.

[bogotatrader] 12/9/2012 18:36

Lots of offers taken out today with AT trades......looking good...

[woracle] 31/8/2012 11:13

H1 results obviously not steller due to 10% lower CPO prices and expected industry wide cost inflation. An EPS before BA of 57c is below my hoped for 65c estimate, but compared to NBPO and REA, they are easily top of the class as I have shown below. The not insignificant upward accounting adjustment to 2011 results has made YoY comparision even tougher. In addition, they do themselves no favours reporting headline figures inclusive of BA only, which are not a consistent measure of real underlying performance. Always strip out the BA numbers in the income statement to make meaningful comparisions. I find people who are new to investing in agricultural stocks don't understand BA and how they skew the underlying picture. So I have done some comparisions striping out BA.

Operationally, 8% increase in FFB output is excellent and bucks the sector trend (NBPO down 5.6%, REA down 9.3% ). Pre-tax before BA adjustement is down 28% ( NBPO down 57.5%, REA down 40%+ ), EPS before BA also down 28% ( NBPO down 60%+, REA down approx 50%). Indeed if you look at the Wilmars of this world, earnings are generally down 50-60% in H1.

Cash flow excellent as usual. I think it shows AEP have managed costs better than the others, have an excellent profile of growing, maturing acreage due to excellent long term planning. Also probably been a bit luckier with good yields.

An after period note concerns legal action against AEP Malaysia. Some minority shareholder wants to wind it up and the case is in September. I personally think selling Malaysia would be a good thing as its only 6% of acreage and an even smaller proportion of earnings. It would reduce overheads and more significantly, management time I am sure.

Notice the Biomass project is starting soon. The company has really downplayed its significance I think. It appears it will be revenue generating from sale of useful waste products as well as being green and lowering energy costs. Not sure how earnings enhancing it will be but the service management and off-take contracts are already set up, and they will do another 4 in future.

[bogotatrader] 29/8/2012 20:02

Anyone know date of Q1 results?

[bogotatrader] 29/8/2012 18:31

worade..thanks......that plag pattern seems to have broken down with the fall today....

[woracle] 28/8/2012 19:09

AEP never follows charting rules on such short timescales. Too illiquid.

[bogotatrader] 28/8/2012 17:03

Mini flag/pennant about to be formed and then a push through 800p again and up to the old highs...... interesting to see if this chart pattern pans out.....

[woracle] 24/8/2012 08:50

The H1 results are imminent. Its been pretty well flagged in the 5 month report. Compared to last year, CPO prices down about 10% although reduced export tax should mitigate that a little. CPO sold up a tad. Costs is the big unknown although we know its rising. I would be satisfied with 65c earnings.

[lobby ludd] 16/8/2012 19:46

I presume the travails of the US corn and soya harvest are a silver cloud for AEP.

[hvs] 27/7/2012 10:13

There is many chimps in India and they is protected.

Maybe he will get a work permit for the UK we has a skills shortage.

[woracle] 27/7/2012 09:58

Oh look, our favourite palmoil anal yst has popped up again to sell more seats at the next conference. He predicts CPO is gonna collapse .. and claims a successful prediction rate of 70%. I think its closer to 50%.. same as your local chimp or village idiot.

[hvs] 25/6/2012 10:20

Very good and interesting article on Vale the Brazillian giant in the F.T. companies section today.

Vale is diversifying into biodiesel with a 150,000 hectre plantation in the
Amazon region of Brazil.

AEP,s acrege potential with 120K hectres bodes very very well. Especially
as land in Indonesia is far more valueable than in Brazil.