There doesn't need to be a reason when you're trading at 1/3 the valuation of a close peer. |
Year end is 31 December and results tend to be issued towards end of April. Maybe they've leaked... |
Operating in Indonesia doesn't bother me, it comes with commmodity investments and Indonesia is better than many.
The controlling shareholder also doesn't inherently bother me, it's just the hoarding of cash that's the problem.
If they keep building cash at ~$40M a year or whatever, barring M&A.
I'll keep waiting. |
Because it's trading at 1/3 of its value vs MPE, its value should continue to grow, and it can be repriced with one decision at any time.
Meanwhile you should keep getting something like a 3-6%ish dividend yield. |
I am slightly intrigued about why you would choose to invest in a company that you feel is misallocating capital so badly. If it were based in the UK or the US, it would make a degree of sense but AEP has a controlling shareholder and its activities are in Indonesia. Much less compelling. FWIW I am expecting the shares to rise into the annual statement. |
Interesting. I don’t disagree with your comments about historical misallocation of capital, it’s a question of whether that is starting to change. The more positive attitude toward dividend payments and the tidying up of the company structure are signs of that IMO. I have a six figure sterling holding, if that helps give credibility to my comments :-o) |
Yes, but it still means a huge misallocation of capital, which is why the shares are where they are.
I can pretty much guarantee I own more AEP than both of you combined, I'm not bearish or trying to "deramp" or any of that nonsense, but hoarding cash like this is stupid and the market knows it.
Expectations are anchored by history and the share price. The dividend yield here should be 20%. |
They are now planning to pay a dividend of at least 25% of retained profits. EPS in H1 was 70.58c (54.7p). Even if they do the same in H2 the final dividend would be at least 27.35p putting them on a yield of 4.1%. In the interims they said that "In the second half of 2024, palm oil production is expected to increase". The ex Rotterdam price also seems to be have been a bit stronger in H2. So hopefully H2 is a stronger profit and the dividend even higher.
In 2022 AEP did an EPS of 236.74c (183.5p) which would have given a dividend (at 25%) of 59.2p, a yield of 8.9%. Not expecting that but indicates the upside possibility at some point in the future. |
It was small. At H1 they had $205M of net current assets and $40M in government bonds. They paid out $12M in dividends for the full year.
Dividends should not be tied to annual profits when a company has huge amounts of excess cash, as AEP obviously does.
That's the reason why the shares are where they are. They won't be properly rated until they start paying out the cash. The current policy means the cash is going to keep building. |
It wasn’t ‘small’. This year it will be more significant. Ultimately dividends are always tied to profits. They have tidied up the company quite nicely over the last year or so. With a reasonably stable CPO price the future should provide lots of opportunity for a higher share price IMO. Market does a pretty good job manipulating the share price of this one I think. |
W hat is the final dividend, a mirage? |
Because they don't pay out the cash. |
Why does this never go higher |
Decided to buy a few |
If Trump's trade wars with Canada/Mexico/China stick then that's bullish for palm oil prices. Increased costs of production and reduced prices obtained by sellers of non-palm oils is bullish for palm oil producers.
Soybean and Canola producers in the US & Canada will be hit. |
Trading update from MPE - pretty strong. |
It was also the same Nokia Bell that blocked the take-over of MP Evans a few years ago.
It's because of the actions of Nokia Bell that I believe Minority interests here have a certain protection against a cheap buy-out. |
7,953,541 voted against resolution 12. The only shareholder with that sort of number is Nokia Bell Pension Fund with 7,015,000. Good to see they are looking after the interests of minority shareholders. |
That is why they stopped the buyback because shareholders said no to resolution 12 |
Alkemy Capital #ALKNews tomorrow if not this week, negotiations close to completion. 25 million funding to land and take us up to 5 pound a share by February. Small market cap and limited shares and this will move extremely quickly.This is huge and if you have not taken an entry yet you are missing out massively.If you have not looked or invested into this share I suggest you take a look. This is an opportunity not to be missed. |
market cap - financial resources = about £10M by my calcs. |
Difficult to say.
The chap who just retired bought £127K of shares at £8 in March 2023. He clearly understood the valuation absurdity and positioned himself to profit from a resolution. He had every incentive to resolve the issue but it hasn't happened. |
Sounds like something, maybe good, might now be done with the cash pile: new chairman.
Surely he will not want to be seen to be in charge of an idle cash pile? Of course, the drop in the share price on the day of his appointment is par for the course with this company, a total disconnect between the share price and the good long term prospects here, except for Cenderung, which I hope they sell off. |
It's the last day of the year.
As no analysts cover this business, I'm putting out an earnings estimate of 190 cents per share.
Anyone fancy taking the over/under?
It would put it on a p/e of a bit over four.
Net financial resources were about $245M at the half year. That could be up to $280M at the full year which would put the ex-financial resources p/e well below one. It will drop below zero unless they do something about the cash soon. |
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