Anglo-eastern Plantations Share Discussion Threads

[hvs] 06/8/2010 08:10

CPO hovering around US$ 900 mark.

A break from that level will set the share price alight.

[philou100] 04/8/2010 11:58

Value square fund equity world: monthly factsheet july:

AEP: 3.75 pc : 'last month, we increase our position in e.a. AEP .."

[spaceparallax] 03/8/2010 10:35

Just keeps getting better.

[hvs] 03/8/2010 07:58

I better start swimming lessons soon then.

[philou100] 03/8/2010 07:34

"La Nina ": some explanation;
"
Nina fears

The rally spread overseas too, with Kuala Lumpur palm oil up 1.8% at 2,563 a tonne, a three-month high.

Besides a spillover from Chicago, where rival soyoil was up 1.0% at 40.21 a pound, the best for nearly four months, buyer are also being encouraged by weather fears over crops in the two biggest producing countries, with an El Nina climatic pattern setting in.

"The last such event got properly underway in late 2007 and was accompanied by serious flooding in Indonesia and Malaysia," ABN Amro said.
" (from : agrimoney.com)

[simon42] 02/8/2010 20:36

Hi hvs- yes I was aware of production being in Indonesia but on reading today that Malaysian production was up rather than down was a positive worth mentioning as higher palm prices going forward may have been off set by weak production levels at AEP but this is looking less likely.
I also was attracted to AEP by the cash position and low rating and I'm hoping we get over the 600p mark and push on up and away.
There seems to be a healthy background noise about Palm oil prices rising for the rest of the year. Even if we see a short term pull back these are still good value imo.

[hvs] 02/8/2010 20:27

Hi simon42

AEP,s production is in Indonesia not Malaysia.

However both countries have similar weather.

The attraction of AEP is that it cash rich and a lot acreage to come on stream
in the next 3 years.

This year profits could be £ 45 mill.

So the shares are still very cheap.

[simon42] 02/8/2010 20:01

I believe the price of palm oil had a 3 month breakout today. I've also read on the upside that palm oil prices are expected to rise due in the autumn for a number of reasons (trade disputes being resolved etc..). One other reason being the bad weather recently maybe having an impact on global production levels but Malaysian production doesn't seem to be impacted (I think). Any better informed information welcomed.
600p is the next barrier.

[hvs] 02/8/2010 19:32

Off course there is no volume.

The shares are very tightly held.

The share price move says it all.

Its a BREAKOUT

[philou100] 02/8/2010 13:50

No volumes for a real break out (TA).
But the fundamentals are

[hvs] 02/8/2010 10:28

Looks like we are having a BREAK OUT

[woracle] 30/7/2010 15:34

Yep, nice of the AT bots to let me have a small top up today at bargain price ;)

[hvs] 30/7/2010 11:38

Palm Oil price moving up very nicely.

Next set of figues will set the share price alight.

[bountyhunter] 20/7/2010 07:16

just pointing out the general consensus of opinion, but a good point regarding the ML analysis woracle

[philou100] 19/7/2010 20:08

Be serious : it's money : no graph or techn analysis with such tiny volume.
BUT:
see the fund : Value square equity F : best perf (yeartoday) Intern Fund:
and AEP is one of their top holdings:

*
see also my previous post : Kroffinvest : target 850 gbp
(the share of this holding is tremendous below of its peers (low pe low peg -see nbr of ha becoming mature each following year )) because of the composition of the capital and absence of communication).

[woracle] 16/7/2010 22:06

Its a myth about the averages moving upwards is needed..

"In the Merrill Lynch report prepared by Mary Ann Bartels, it continues to distinguish between golden crosses that happen with a downward long term moving average and those when the long term moving average is rising:

Of the 42 Golden Cross signals triggered since 1928, 20 have occurred with the 200-day moving average in a declining trend or lower than it was 30 trading sessions ago. These signals on average have generated 12-month returns of 13.3%.

The remaining 22 signals occurred when the 200-day moving average was rising or higher than it was 30 trading sessions ago. The returns for these signals were much lower and on average generated 12-month returns of 5.7%."

[bountyhunter] 16/7/2010 21:53

well spotted; just checked that both averages were moving upwards at the time of the cross and they were :-)

[notanewmember2] 16/7/2010 21:42

It's what the fund managers use, 200MA etc - again self fufilling prophecy. If it works, I won't argue with it!

[woracle] 16/7/2010 20:17

Charts are funny, golden cross, death cross, whatever. I read an article recently about a study of the death crosses and guess what ? 50% of them went the other way. LOL. Then again golden crosses are meant to be better but not infallable. Kinda self fulfilling bias, markets tend to trend up long term historically, and humans are optimists by nature. But never understood why its always round numbers .. why not 64 day vs 256 day ?

[notanewmember2] 16/7/2010 20:01

It's called a golden cross, that's what. 50MA crossed 200MA.

[andysburns] 16/7/2010 08:54

off we go. now it's up up up!

[woracle] 15/7/2010 23:07

Following CPO which has risen 6 days on the trot now up about 8% on high exports, low supply in July and weather concerns for big competitor Soya.. Needs a bit more volume and a few more days above 555 to confirm breakout here imv. Still the buy bot soaking up any sellers day after day.

Extremely fortunate to have had a windfall at MATD .. 9 bagger in 9 months is prob best punt ever for me and started selling down yesterday and today. Guess where some profits went ? Yes, good old AEP..not a punt, pretty much a long time cert ;)

[simon42] 15/7/2010 17:15

Just checked and yes it is a 12 month break out.

[simon42] 15/7/2010 17:13

Was that a 12 month break out today? Hope so. This could run in August!

[andysburns] 15/7/2010 09:27

it's ready to go pop!