Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[pogue] 22/5/2020 08:11

Wan
Another interesting article it got me thinking as to how this oil price will rise and how far as it is clear that the writer is glossing over facts but it is in line with much I am reading.
It starts off with a lie the experts did know what was going on with regards the futures market this month the reason there is no dramatic shift to the negative this month is because there was less oil in ships going to port as I said here last week my oil trader friend told me that so the experts did know.
The drop in shale production is painted as something that will balance the market but very few mention how much that drop is, currently about 1.7 mbpd which is about 1.7% of pre CV19 consumption which was oversupplied by about 1.5% at that time so shale losses are irrelevant unless you assume a larger demand post CV19 than before. What is relevant though is the it means OPEC+ will regain more control of the market with less shale however the shale has not disappeared and will ramp back up when the oil price hits their sweet spot. Lack of people and equipment has been solved rapidly in the past as they pay a good rate so demand creates supply.
The conventional oil companies throttling back supply and cutting costs is just that if the oil price rises they will start producing more.
The writer believes there will be a V shaped return to the oil market I cant understand that either as that would assume industry will be just the same post lockdown whereas all I am hearing is massive job cuts and bankruptcies which in all other times has meant lower demand why is it different this time? The writer doesn't seem to answer that question or even contemplate the problem. This is all part of the narrative just now that the oil industry is trying to construct to get the oil price up.
What is going to happen I suggest is everyone with a stake in oil will keep talking up the price highlighting the positives and omitting the facts as is evident in this article. OPEC+ will initially have more control of the oil price but as the price rises oil that is shut off will comeback online, shale will probably be the last and how much will depend on who now owns the wells as a few have and will change hands. However the elephant in the room is Trump. He has a price for oil of $60ish and will do everything in his power to keep oil from going past that level by threats, sanctions etc as he has done in the past. So the recovery will happen, it has to, but will be uneven and will have a ceiling of $60 which looks good now but back pre CV19 companies and countries were suffering at that level. Without massive demand Trump will be the biggest barrier to a proper recovery. Obviously by November that could change and the oil hating democrats are in power which makes life less rosey for US oil but removes the price barrier that is Trump for everyone else so the price can be more easily manipulated by the old masters OPEC. Place your bets.
Thanks for the article Wan made me chew over a few things.
Edit
Off course the Democrats bring forward the good chance that they will let Iran back in the oil market due to the reintroduction of the Obama nuclear deal and if they really are feeling nasty kick start the bill to try Saudi Arabia in American courts for price manipulation, the Yanks have no shame when it comes to running the world how they want when they want. They are allowed to manipulate oil prices not anyone else lol
Oil has so many moving parts its a nightmare to predict anything and all of the above could be completely different in 6 months time.

[droyden] 22/5/2020 08:01

Fools now noticed avct, probably a sell signal!

[jbe81] 22/5/2020 07:57

Will be interesting to see, placing may be oversubscribed and it may bounce back quickly

[mad foetus] 22/5/2020 07:54

Bill's biggest strength is also his weakness, in that he is cautious, sticks to the facts and plays down the hype. That's fine but it would be good to see somebody in the company blowing the trumpet.I think for example of the bonanza grades we discovered. Any other gold company would have made them the subject of an RNS and been up 30%. We've said that we are checking the accuracy but that was about 9 months ago and we've alluded to them without confirming since. There is a happy medium between total caution and utter ramp.Anyway, I strongly suspect yesterday was just the start of the newsflow. And that we will get extra pieces of the jigsaw and they will lead to the 50p up days Matt mentioned. Let's hope!

[gold finger 1] 22/5/2020 07:49

Well i would hope those that have been posting problems with the government will now stop. Also yesterday when that idiot came on and tried to say there was a case of covid at the mine.Just goes to show the state of some peoples minds that post on these threads.
Bill came across well. He is in no rush, which in my eyes is always a positive. Those that rush into things tend to regret their decisions over time. It may have more to do with his age,youngsters always want it today and tend to nether think about the consequences.
It sounds to me as if they are in talks about producing outside AZA.
He seemed relaxed about the amount of gold that was going to be be produced over the next few years. Only adding 100,000 ounces in the future when pushed.But we know that production isn't going to increase until at least 2023-4 at the earliest.

So if you are not happy to sit here and take the divi and get updates on progress from exploration for the next few years,move on. But then again Bill could be playing his cards close to his chest.

Parking your money here for the next few years could be one of the best decisions you could make.

[riggerbeautz] 22/5/2020 07:38

Morning Wan

For those still holding Orph, it will probably settle down near the placing price, unless you bought more last few days, it shouldn’t be a drama; just means reduced short term profit or longer investing timeframe.

[jbe81] 22/5/2020 07:36

AVCT raised money at 18p not too long ago... just surprised the thought of them raising was dismissed so quickly here

[brasso3] 22/5/2020 07:30

I feel a bit stupid as the warning signs were there with ORPH. Oh well I am sure 20p is still not out of the question in a few months.

[wanobi] 22/5/2020 07:14

many thanx jeanesy, watching it now :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[jbe81] 22/5/2020 07:13

Well there is the fund raise at Orph, not that its a bad thing and credit on the using primary bid. Not sure those that bought at 15p are too happy but could be a buying opportunity .

[wanobi] 22/5/2020 06:50

Cheers
Wan :-)

[wanobi] 22/5/2020 06:50

Good morning all, Good Luck and good health today :-) Cheers Wan :-)

Great debate chaps, many thanx..

[goldrush] 22/5/2020 00:59

Friendzarin

Very much agree with your post No 35606 to agree 5 key questions for AGM.

[2sporrans] 22/5/2020 00:18

Matt

"Cv-19 has been a complete disaster for China & Xi must be furious.
At what point will they take the gloves off with the USA? "

The latest outbreak in NE China seems to be of a new strain; longer gestation period making it all the more challenging to contain.
Wonder if this is going to spread into the domain of the Beloved Leader or whatever Kim Jung Un is titled. He has gone awol again, so maybe his sister is going to feature on the podiums a lot more.

Anyway....
It will be great to extent China does 'reform' wrt stuff like respecting others intellectual property rights, opening up market access on level footing, better regulation and a lot more of less concern to Yanks but greatly to others, like assisting more with debt support [some forgiveness?] to all those EMs and FMs they
extract so much resource from.
On t'other hand, Trump wants to take a little care about pushing his re-election China bashing too far; e.g. he's started having a go against Xi personally.
Well, Xi is no Deng ....but could do a lot worse from the pov of USA ad the West. like how's about a Chinese Putin or Trump for that matter?

[2sporrans] 21/5/2020 23:54

On the 100k-oz pa gold[GE?] production over next 3-5yrs, the current exploration/development prospects seem to be in accord with this.
It's hard to envisage what will come into production, even by 2024 that will
justify a huge increase in plant capacity.

What would not only support but demand at least a doubling in capacity - maxed out over perhaps 15+yrs - will be the advent of a much larger resource, the one currently most in focus seems to be - as Matt especially expounds [and thanks Matt] - a very large, if deep, Porphyry belt, underlying Gadir+main-pit and extending under Ugur, Asvlanchi, Gilar...Parkand Bugur etc and beyond [Zehmet] the Northern/NE CA perimeter.....
But, realistically, production won't commence from such until 2025 earliest.
Could be looking at another ~$100mn spend scenario.

[bo doodak] 21/5/2020 23:19

Noticed that as well, over a 3-5 years timescale I think he said he'd be content with. If judged on this aspect in isolation its not exactly an inticing prospect with which to attract new investors.

[baddeal] 21/5/2020 23:08

I thought bill came across as a very safe pair of hands and not one prone to rash decisions. He certainly didn't take any risks when asked about ambitions for the business and talked about 100k pa production. Not quite mid tier then. Underplayed perhaps?

[pogue] 21/5/2020 23:03

RB
I understand your position. I am at a different point to you I think with AAZ I am looking for it to do different things. It takes many views to make a market. Live and let live as you say.

[jbravo2] 21/5/2020 22:50

:D
Thanks gh
Would have enjoyed one too

[riggerbeautz] 21/5/2020 22:46

Pogue you have every right to ask questions, for me it’s not a drama but I’m well cushioned and relaxed, if I sold my trading batch tomorrow it would pay me a divi equal to my outlay and I have a lot of trust in this b.o.d

Do get shareholder frustrations, had them myself with GCM in Canada, sold only to see the stock gain 15% a few days later but I’d played GCM a long time and made seriously good profit, it was just the way they treated ordinary p.i’s compared to Sprott and others. Compare that to AAZ the board have been very transparent and so much aligned to our interests. Look at all mj and others have put on the main thread. I’m an age where I still feel happy holding “good” stocks years, they have always been the ones to bring me greatest reward.

Each to their own Pogue, live and let live :)

[jeanesy] 21/5/2020 22:40

Great cambridge house presentation about Pure Gold.. eventually



49 minutes long but worth a watch, especially as the host is very pleasing on the eye. Pure Gold bit after about 35 mins. All sounds very promising.

[jeanesy] 21/5/2020 22:36

I shall ask the question again at the AGM if we haven't heard anything more about it then.

[crazycoops] 21/5/2020 22:19

https://event.webinarjam.com/replay/187/n774ytnghx9tx2sw0p

[crazycoops] 21/5/2020 22:18

Here is the event replay - Bill ended up going first after technical difficulties with the initial speaker

[pogue] 21/5/2020 22:05

Tonight's show from Proactive for those that missed it