Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[lurker5] 20/6/2019 20:34

LLB NPV's are the only (but very crude) valuation guide you can use for a short life miner. Multiples of FCF or earnings are meaningless for only a few years of them. That's where brokers puffing shares mislead by cherry picking particular multiples and 'comparing' with others. There are many more metrics that often show a worse light, but which the naive won't consider. But even NPV's are too crude. They're not appropriate for 'valuing' a share - only to guide a banker to decide whether a project's cash flows will repay his loan at a sufficient rate of return. On the other hand, an investor wants to know the different prospective return on his shares - not on the project which only partly underlines them and often has to be shared with others, like loan providers.
NPV's are crude because 1) what discount rate do you use ? I monitored all AIM miners during the 2011 spike, and not a single one of them approached to more than 1/3rd the broker touted NPV. In other words, the market doesn't use the 8-10% discount rate the companies published, but a much higher rate, which reduces the stated NPV. and 2) An NPV is the discounted value today of all future net inflows. Why on earth would anyone pay 'up front' (which is what the NPV is) for all future earnings ? To do so is merely to get back your investment plus the discount rate. Only a mug would do that for a risky long term project. And lastly, even if a share had a true 'value' now, why would anyone pay right up to that value ?. Its for all those reasons that NPV's are almost always a grotesque exaggeration of what is actually achieved. I could go on !

[shabirm] 20/6/2019 20:31

Wanobi, excellent explanation of Gap. ATB.

[jeanesy] 20/6/2019 19:51

Thanks for the update guys. You never know if things keep going well i may be able to join you in the future rather than going to work !

[wanobi] 20/6/2019 19:39

many thanx to you all on the proper AAZ thread, appreciate you sharing your findings from today,,, greatly,,, cheers Wan :-)

[bleepy] 20/6/2019 19:08

Mf,Fz,Gh,Mj and company that attended today, thank you for taking the time to update and pass on the content and tone of the meeting to this board and its readers. Reinforces on many fronts the worth of the company and added confidence it gives us shareholders.

[friendzarin] 20/6/2019 18:55

Away from JB's influence..that man does lead my innocent self astray.

So good to see more investors again at the AGM.If you didn't come away from that meeting without thinking something special is on the cards at Gedabek in particular then it would be peculiar.

Nice to see JB,MJ.Gh,Terrapol
and meet MF.Also some other guys who I didnt have direct conversations with.
SW ..what a star..difficult question give to Steve..boom..12 rows back..next question..boom same again.

V v comfortable here in this current investing environment for some time to come.

Finally a thankyou to the company and the executive team in particular.Absolutely brilliantly handled meeting from the get go to the end.Thank you again.

[gutterhead] 20/6/2019 18:45

MF, you are bang on.
JB and FZ, enjoy the beers.
All being well, we should make more of the post AGM event next year 😁
John Meyer was sat next to me and when I asked about when the outdated target price would be updated, he said probably in the next couple of weeks........TBH 5 years ago I would have ripped him a new one but i'm now a bit wiser and realise, in the end, he makes no difference to anything.
Well done to all at AAZ and especially our CEO for having the foresight and courage to invest his own personal money (avoiding a fundraiser) 5ish years ago

[wanobi] 20/6/2019 18:39

not far to go now for gold to break out :-) cheers Wan LOL

Chart from the other day :-) 1390 as I post this :-)


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[mad foetus] 20/6/2019 18:30

Next time j, good to meet you and fz tooBefore I invested in AAZ I made good money on GFM. I invested in it because I had just got Stockopedia and it was too of the rankings. Then I sent emails to them a couple of times and had no response. So I had doubts and sold out. Today they issued a profit warning at 3.51.You simply cannot put a price on having a competent, trustworthy board that is aligned with the shareholders and take real steps to make sure they meet shareholders and keep them up to date. It is one of those things that doesn't get factored into any price targets, and yet, especially when you are dealing with overseas operations, is the most important single factor that enables you to sleep at night.

[bleepy] 20/6/2019 18:19

Thanks jb, the sweetest of sweet deals would have to start @ £5 for me and the company I hope.

[friendzarin] 20/6/2019 18:01

your round now mate

[jbravo2] 20/6/2019 17:58

So there we go.
A fabulous AGM. Nice to meet you mf.
Had to rush off as Mrs jb (who attended her first co meeting) needed to catch a train, and ever gallant, I wanted to make sure she got there ok.
Now managing to sink a few with FZ. Hope you can join us next time mf. Anywayyyyyyyyy.... enough of the social....

The company is in the sweetest spot possible.
We have 31 targets to evaluate which can feed a paid for plant.
Or backing that up we are also developing Ordubad for a slightly longer term result.
And now competing with that we are evaluating whatever is offered to us. As highlighted by the board it's a great problem to have. It has to be the sweetest of sweet deals to compete with our existing priorities. Anything less than that and we simply won't hand over the cash, or sign on the line.
The last 6 months have changed everything. We won't chase anything. We don't need to.

Frankly, as I've said before, if you're investing in ANY other AIM miner you need your head read. Ok might be a bit of beer talking making me a little blunt (again) but it's true.
Ok beer calls... will post more tomorrow night when back home.

[mattjos] 20/6/2019 17:36

Correct jaspoland.Dow chart looks like it is about to go vertical for next couple of weeks.The 'FED put' everyone believes but, ain't going to work this time, imo. More like a big trap. Negligible air in the gold balloon so far but, Dow & SPX balloons are full to breaking already. One last puff and they'll go bang

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/6/2019 17:31

Buying at 136p for 75,000 was the top today, interesting timing to sell off any tho' as we go ExDiv next week, a bit of a retrace was always going to happen, but to be still sat on 120p+ on AGM day is great progress, a little healthy consolidation around here and ready for the Q2/H1 results next in 2/3 weeks time, which I'm expecting to be the catalyst for the next leg up, but with Gold on a tear anything can happen.. :o)

1.3M volume traded and we are on the radar of a lot more investors now..!

[jaspoland] 20/6/2019 17:25

Can't see gold and the Dow continuing to keep going higher in tandem. Something got to give. It almost feels like someone inflating a balloon and it's at the point of going pop. Crazy times.

[wanobi] 20/6/2019 17:17

aha so they did, I suppose with hardly any PI buying the MM's had time on their hands to report the II trades :-) LOL oh thanx so much MM's, cheers Wan :-) LOL

[mr roper] 20/6/2019 17:09

Gold at 1392 bucks

[cinoib] 20/6/2019 16:49

Well done chaps, that was one hell o a rise. Couldn't resist it now saat on cash waiting for a bit of a retrace. That's 20% of what I need to buy the farm I just did a deal on so a coup;e more like that and I'l be smiling all the way to Scotland.

[sportbilly1976] 20/6/2019 16:44

lol - a fair bit went through intraday, so possibly not much to declare after hours.

it is a bit like groundhog day at the moment with it...11th July last year they provided a H1 update. Whilst I'm hoping the stock shift isn't still happening then, a positive update could easily provide the required impetus to shift whatever overhang is lingering

[wanobi] 20/6/2019 16:38

on STCM watch again tonight :-) LOL cheers Wan

[riggerbeautz] 20/6/2019 16:04

You be careful who you say that to (drink kicking in). Lol

[wanobi] 20/6/2019 16:02

ah yes, there are so many types of GAP :-) LOL cheers Wan



the runaway/continuation GAP :-)

[sportbilly1976] 20/6/2019 15:59

if we can close positive today then it could be viewed as a continuation gap, which is a bullish signal