Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[goodgrief] 26/6/2018 11:48

Planning to attend. Hope they have the air conditioning turned up high!

[catsick] 26/6/2018 11:40

So who is joining me at the agm on friday ? Get the scoop on all that lovely exploration and monster dividends they will start spewing out ....

[lefrene] 26/6/2018 11:14

How many other businesses are out there with substantial capital assets, soon no debt and over 100% profit margin on a product that has been in fashion for millennia? I suppose if people want to give their assets away one should just help them out by picking them up :¬)

[bumpa33] 26/6/2018 10:56

Now about the same mkt cap as GGP, you gotta love the markets...

[mattjos] 25/6/2018 22:10

Shalom! How cheap is this!!

[davidspringbank] 25/6/2018 06:50

Good solid news. The only fly in the ointment is the active traders in the stock which is why the share price is under-performing expectations.

[mattjos] 23/6/2018 16:18

Don't forget that they have learnt how to blend the incoming ores also & what they have learnt about In-series use of the Agitation & Flotation plants.The exploration results are as much about the makeup of the different ore types as they are about identifying additional & new reserves.

[2sporrans] 23/6/2018 12:57

Though the Q2 results + H1 Op./Prod. update is only 3 or 4 weeks away and a lot of investor focus for that, methinks it will be the Q3 results that will be more crucial.
[They are due by mid October.]

The Q3 results will be the first to capture the 2 stream processing set-up and particularly the copper concentrate production stream via standalone Flotation plant.

The performance of this will be crucial to the level of Free Cash Flow over 2019-21; something that the SPA report picks up on to it's credit.

Of course the exploration driven resource updates will also be crucial to divining the future.
Think we will be looking at these in 2 categories from now [just thinking Gegdabek and not Ordubad]:

1. Gold-silver rich resources, oxide, to feed the AL->SART Process stream + also the poor grades into Heap leach.
2. Copper rich and sulphide ores to feed Flotation process.

So, for now we have Ugur + Gadir + Gosha to feed 1.
And
The main pit to feed 2.

There's at least 4 years left in the main pit according to last update.
There may be several more, depending on the underground resource and although that is likely sulphurous and copper rich there may be the bonus of some sizeable seams of gold-silver/oxide type.


What about Ugur?
Maybe a year? How much of the 140k [known recoverable when extraction commenced] is left to come out?
Gadir: At least a few years; could be several depending on the down dip extension content.
Gosha is small but useful if kept to cover periods of interruption at Ugur/Gadir.
3,000m drilling planned there in 2018 may reveal more high grade gold oxide resource.


While there's a host of possible new resources that the $18-mn 3 year exploration programme may reveal, there's 2 prospects that have stuck in my mind that AAZ COULD focus on soon with a view to JORC + development/production:
Soylodu [explored 2017] and Bittibulag [explored] 2016.
These are copper rich prospects and though also gold/silver, look essentially potential resource to feed the Flotation process for copper concentrate production.

Looking at the 2018 exploration programme underway, there is no specific mention of either prospect; seem to be on the back burner, for now.
Methinks this is because AAZ knows it has at least 4 years to come out of the main pit + has years of suitable stockpiles too, so not a priority for 2018 to JORC more.

On the other hand we do see:

Urur:
"4,500 metres of core and 4,500 metres of reverse circulation drilling are planned for 2018. Targets to be assessed are extensions to the known mineralisation and drilling areas adjacent to the current mining area."

Gosha:
"3,000 metres of core drilling is planned to explore for gold veins"

Of course, we know the 2 of the 3 biggest drilling programmes are targeting Gadir - 16,000m of underground+surface drilling !! and Main-Pit-underground - 5,750m [The Fan drilling].

The point being that the focus for all these 4 above, from a resource extension perspective is biased towards finding more gold/silver oxide ores suitable to feed the low cost AL->SART process.

Also worth noting that regards the other "biggy", the Main Pit [Open cast] exploration [10,000m] for 2018:
"The main purpose is to identify the quantity and quality of the feedstock for the processing plants."
In other words, the focus here is to maximise the availability and quality of what is there to feed the Flotation plant from H2 2018 onwards.
SPA Angel's note states:
"Growth in 2019 is predominantly attributed to higher throughput at the flotation plant reflecting a full year contribution of the new crusher"
And they are forecasting Copper Concentrate production at just under 4,000 tons for each of 2019 and 2020.
Looks like they are assuming a sustained 'linear' feed of ore from the Main Pit [+maybe stockpile]to achieve this and presumably the Flotation plant will be running close to full capacity.
Hopefully, they are relaying what AAZ have just being advising them!!

So, the above supports the priority importance of the performance of the Flotation Copper concentrate production - Q3 results first take.
And
The stream of drilling results, as above, which I guess will start arriving more towards the back end of 2018.

If this means further patience will be required, sobeit.
More opportunity to accumulate shares during dips?

[2sporrans] 22/6/2018 16:30

A couple of observations/thoughts on buys/sells:

1. Isn't it the case that a lot of trades are made with in investor on one side of the bargain and a broker on the other; the flag "buy" or "sell" ought to reflect the investor's position price?
With an illiquid little AIM stock like AAZ there won't be many times in the day when buyers and sellers orders can be 'married' together such that they directly satisfy each other, or even mostly; the broker must engage as counterparty.
To the extent the broker then runs low or high on stock held, they will riase or lower their prices and maybe the spread too.

2. One has to be wary of trades made where the bargain price is just above or below the mid price of the exchange quoted spread.
A lot of buys are flagged up as sells when this happens and vice versa.
My last 2 recent buys were both flagged up as sells by the advfn trade indicator [and others].
When mf posted 13:12, I'd agree that most but not all the days trades were buys to then [as designated in 1. above]. There looks to be a clear exception on the LSE exchange with the 2244 share trade with bargain price of 46.03p made 11:57 flagged as a "buy" with 45<>47 spread quoted. Looks like a "sell" to me, a tad above mid-quote.
price. The 14:46 [LSE] trade - 21728 shares - priced at 46:03 also a Sell just above mid price. Clearly, although the quoted prices remained at 45<>47, [brokers now holding a fair few ?] the subsequent, relatively meaty trades made at around 45.5p ... most recent 45.3p on Nex exchange of 22,076 shares at 14:52 being clearly a sell and at a tad lower price than the 45.53 sell of 22k shares made on LSE at 14:47.

So.... I mostly go along with what you say Lefrene but quibble about the fine detail.

Also, make observation that "news" is very much in the eye of the beholder.
On the one hand, that SPA note will be very much a source of new information to some readers; for others will reveal little about AAZ they don't already know.
On the other hand, there's a lot happening with AAZ's mining, plant, sales etc the past few weeks which even the most clued up posters here - regardless of well considered expectations - don't actually know about; future "news" in effect is being accrued day by day.
It's a reasonable conjecture that SPA have been privy [via AAZ management] to some of these accrued "happenings" and factored this into their analysis and forecasting; hence enhancing [hopefully] the Phoenix like transformation of their assessment .

[lefrene] 22/6/2018 14:34

mad foetus, I wouldn't rely on the advfn trade indicator, there have to be sells to fill the buys, or the price moves up to encourage sellers. At the moment I guess just about everything is known about the current position of the business, so new news needed to tilt the field one way or the other.

[mad foetus] 22/6/2018 13:12

100% buys today, keep that up through the afternoon and it will be 200%. MMs won't we able to keep a lid on that!

[jbe81] 22/6/2018 09:07

Nice update from share price Angel, lays out the undervaluation for all to see. Hopefully won't be too long before they have to revise it upwards when we have some drilling results.

Current share price is all about the auction, question is who is buying all these shares??

[goodgrief] 22/6/2018 08:15

Thanks Mattjos for the divi advice... something for my to-do list.

[friendzarin] 21/6/2018 23:10

Congrats to everyone who has interfaced with John Meyer and Sergei..you know who you are. I would just like to give Bill Morgan a high 5 on this one as I know he had a meeting planned with J M when he was in London last and after his presentation J M was definitely in his sights.

[mattjos] 21/6/2018 22:22

Reminder to fellow investors:With the advent of a dividend, now more important than ever to seriously consider try getting-your shares out of your trading accounts and into a Stocks'n'Shares ISA. Why pay tax on the dividend unnecessarily?Feel free to ask here if anyone unsure of the procedure .. plenty here will be willing to explain the process.

[crazycoops] 21/6/2018 22:12

Delighted that share price Angel have finally published an updated note. I've just been looking at the revised forecasts, eps was previously 0.8 cents 2018 (versus 2.22 cents for 2017) and has now been upgraded to 5.09. That will have a massive effect on the forward PE, PEG etc. The under valuation here is now becoming apparent to a wider audience.

[mattjos] 21/6/2018 21:49

Picked up some more this morning after the note release.Anyway, 4am start tomoz . Biz trip to Middle East so, may post at some odd times in the coming week. Let's hope we continue to creep up and get over & stay over the 50p level in the days before the AGM. I assume the AGM statement / event will give us confirmation on the new crusher operation and now only 4 weeks to go for Q2 update.With the longer hotter days, they will be cracking on with exploration ... I'm still of the opinion we'll get a good update on that sometime during July-Oct.Q3 update should be a belter!

[mattjos] 21/6/2018 21:41

Hands up Brasso :-) .. no, I did not but, have had several exchanges with John Meyer strongly suggesting they had gotten themselves far behind the curve & that there was ample evidence to warrant a more realistic target. Mine certainly not the only the voice though.They seem to have finally responded. The reference to 2p dividend is most unlikely to have been printed without first referring to the company on the matter ... the analyst's very conservative nature would back that up.With 2p'ish maiden divi in the offing, a minimum share price nearer 60p is warranted pdq, imo. 3% yield.Am confident this new 72p target will be breached later this year also but, share price Angel will lack the confidence right now to target £1+ which is what they will be doing, the moment new resources are confirmed.

[brasso3] 21/6/2018 20:37

Matt

Did you write that article for share price Angel? :)

[homebrewruss] 21/6/2018 20:10

'Dividend plan underlines confidence at Anglo Asian Mining'


hxxp://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/199343?__twitter_impression=true

..just retweeted by the AAZ Twitter account. Good to see some step up in PR.

[terropol] 21/6/2018 14:39

2p will be a nice wages to have YASX.

[lefrene] 21/6/2018 13:00

AAZ have under promised and over delivered all the way, I hope this modus operandi will apply to the divi too! A surprise on the upside would also lift the share price.

[2sporrans] 21/6/2018 11:34

Well spotted Matt, especially the Dividend note.

Wow!
What a transformation!
Proves SPA's previous take was ludicrously off mark.

This has to ignite some substantial buying.
Having your NOMAD resolutely target the s. price at 22p is/was pretty dissuasive to not a few potential new holders I imagine; especially in absence of any other analyst take.

"AISC for 2018 (inc. PSA) $681/oz"

Is this new?
The 2017 AISC was just over $600/oz.
Not that $681/oz is bad news.
When you consider that H2 will see a lot of copper concentrate production as my post above, that's a whole new margin game over purely gold/silver of v. easy process type through the well established and tuned AL->SART process.
Therefore sub $700 AISC for 2018 will be good !!

4% dividend for just $3-mn out of the copious FCF.
Has to grab fresh attention and in a good way.
Let it be.

[bumpa33] 21/6/2018 11:20

Nice to see share price have finally turned their attention to one of the more quality companies in their stable - about bloody time....