Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[jidmad] 11/7/2016 16:45

It is a game of buy and hold, I have been trying to take profit and reposition since it was 5-6p but in vain (Limited upside 3% for the risk taken ).

I was almost left behind, but I took a wise decision after the Brexit to refill, both Isa and SIPP

Correction: Q2 RNS will be released on the 13th or 14th July based on previous updates, not Friday

[jbravo2] 11/7/2016 16:08

@jbe - Thanks. Using a technical analysis I'd say "Quite a lot"

@jeanesy - of course you can. You might not be able to get a fixed quote which shows, yes, stock is tight and they'd prefer a few sellers. Usually in this position the last few orders just get placed without a fixed offer and then get filled as they move the price up to encourage the next round of sellers. Of course this is exiting the dip so they might not get many til the 19p we were at last time.

[brasso3] 11/7/2016 16:05

They will find some if they move it up to 19p - 20p.

[jeanesy] 11/7/2016 16:03

Cant buy any now. They need some stock !

[brasso3] 11/7/2016 15:51

22p before Q2 RNS...

[someuwin] 11/7/2016 15:48

Can't buy any volume now.

[wrighty46] 11/7/2016 15:20

I've said this before we've had at least 1 buyer here, been at it for weeks. Started becoming obvious around the 9p level. They have been very patient and the Mm's have done a pretty good job for them. I know people on here have been saying 25p, 30p, 40p etc is where we should be. But if we do have a buyer or buyers that want a certain amount of stock and will pay more and more as the share price rises. Then this could really be at 70p or 80p in no time at all. Let's see what the update brings. Don't forget pog is probably now $150 higher now than most of us hoped for. And IMO I don't think $1600-$1700 is out of reach by year end.

[jeanesy] 11/7/2016 15:05

Not sure how much stock the mm's must have left at this price? Can now sell at mid

[jeanesy] 11/7/2016 14:41

Actual sell price is nearly at the mid. production news due any day..anything else would be a bonus. lots of buys toady but yet no movement in price .. so far

[jbe81] 11/7/2016 14:41

Nice post JB.

Have you an idea how many shares said buyer might have accumulated?

[jbravo2] 11/7/2016 14:31

Hmmm.
Anything is possible and I have no special knowledge but here are a few options. There are many more.

1. We are asked to contract Chovdar for a fixed fee/oz produced.
2. We are asked to contract for Chovdar on a %age royalty basis.
3. We are asked to take on another (or more) of those 6 ex-AIMROC properties, which would be a complete new mine. I'm not aware if the others even have resource proved up, and if they do to what level of certainty or size but I do believe some are much larger/more prospective than Chovdar.

What I think is we will not now "own" Chovdar. (Incidentally we don't "own" Gedabek... I guess I mean we would only now be almost a subcontractor to the main contractor AzerGold, which is simply the position we hold at Gedabek, we are just the main contractor with the mining rights we absolutely do not "own" Gedabek). Chovdar has too many debts associated with it and I'd imagine Reza is very reluctant to pay out all that money to own something he hasn't been able to develop as he'd have liked. Especially if it would involve raising money at anything like 20p. (I'm aware matt suggests raising money at 80p, but I think Azerbaijan will want a deal done on this before we reach 80p)

I think it would be crazy for AzerGold (and lets not beat around the bush, that means the president), not to want to involve a company that has made a success of a 49/51 PSA, with 75% cost recovery and 32% tax when he's seen a 70/30, 100%, 22% company go to the wall. Of course not all rulers do follow rational thought and many are ruthless - are there any other things to think about?)

I am intrigued by the buying that has been evident the last few weeks. It has definitely been atypical. There are many more late trades. Many more which don't get declared as buy/sell, many more in auction etc etc.
Why is that so interesting?

Well just because if I try to guess a course the president might take one option I keep returning to is this;

Get AzerGold to ask us to contract for it, in a little while of course, as the legal stuff with AzerGold/AIMROC will take a couple of months to tie up. Knowing this AAZ would be a stonking buy, but clearly one can't just go to the market and try to buy 10m shares within a week. the share would rocket and too many questions would be asked. It could be done, I'm sure over just a few months though. Teasing sellers out as the price climbed. I think then eventually the share price would reach a price where a couple of new options become available
a) a price is achieved where John and Reza would sell - and believe me we'd all be happy with that price too (i.e. we get bought by AzerGold)
b) we reach the point, (a high share price), which ties in with matts suggestion, where we could issue new shares to an investor (pick one, I know who I'd guess at) and use the money to acquire these properties


So in short, yes I think expansion into the ex-AIMROC properties in some way is more than possible but I don't think we'll be raising money to do that to start with.


Just keep in mind one other thing, the president asked to meet John and Reza in Washington on his recent visit. We saw the pictures in the press. I doubt he wanted to ask them about the upcoming Euro championships and whether Iceland were worth an outside bet.



Just musings of course, but far from a ridiculous pipe dream, and ultimately all of that is just a bonus. We can look forward to AAZ being debt free in two years from Gedabek alone. That then places us strongly for whatever may come.




Edit: yes jidmad, I think the flotation expansion will happen at Gedabek no matter what and will be done through cash we are now making/debt. I have talked beyond that.

[jidmad] 11/7/2016 14:26

Watch the last 2 videos on Proactive investors, in one of them, the placing for expansion has been overruled. They prefer to use Debt to expand copper production in the future.

[jbe81] 11/7/2016 14:20

cant be far off a tick up here

[zhockey] 11/7/2016 13:25

JBravo,

Do you concur with Matt's model that the likely expansion option would be Chovdar and that this would need a placing?

[jbravo2] 11/7/2016 07:18

I'd say $35m is more likely zhockey, although of course further gold strength may see lower. Don't forget we're still spending on a second SAG mill, water detox plant and electricity substation.
All of which either increase production or lower costs further.

Nice post jidmad

[zhockey] 10/7/2016 23:17

So by year end we could see debt fall to $25M?

[jidmad] 10/7/2016 21:50

A quick overview of what we could expect on Friday (this ignores all silver and copper production):
• Q2 Production likely to hit 20000 ounces, calculation based on the recent 18000ounces 50% sales hedging for Q3 & Q4.
• Q2 Sales will hit 17500 ounces at an average price of $1250.
• Total revenue $22m.
• Debt Payment could be as follow:
o International Bank of Azerbaijan - loan facility $1.27m
o International Bank of Azerbaijan - loan facility $1.5m
o Amsterdam Trade Bank $2,467,000
o Atlas Copco $355000
o Yapi Credit Bank, Azerbaijan ("YCBA") $414750.
o Pasha Bank Letters of credit for flotation plant construction $1616500.
o Director: I expect Mr Reza Vaziri will wait until the end of the year to get his money back.
• Total debt payment could reach $7.62m.
• This will result in a cash position close to zero, which stipulate that the company is likely to renegotiate some of the big loans and that's the reason behind the recent hedging.
During this Quarter the debt could drop from $47.5 to $40m This is why I am still invested in this company, as I believe in the good management, the long term vision and the mine potential. I am forecasting 35p to 40p by the end of the year as gold price balance its levels with other asset classes around $1450. Debt refinancing could be the trigger to take us to 25 to 30p.
My last 20000 shares buy was Friday at 17.37p, and I keep watching for any weakness to buy, unfortunately I am close to running out of cash.
Please share your thoughts and research.
Thanks
M.Y

[brasso3] 10/7/2016 10:12

I expect a solid Monday here as gold gained $10 after the LSE closed on Friday.

Q2 results should be out in the next 5 trading days. Any confirmation of operational costs in the $600 - $650 range for H1 should see a further adjustment into the 20's.

AAZ is slowly becoming one of the more profitable producers on AIM. Any additional licenses now on more favorable terms (70:30 PSA) would be further game changing news.

What is not to like about this company now.

[brasso3] 08/7/2016 21:54

Crazy games with gold. Can only see $1400 coming in July/ August.

[someuwin] 08/7/2016 21:01

Gold down to $1335 earlier - now back up to $1365

[jbravo2] 08/7/2016 16:10

Yes, today's price move is more of a catch up from yesterday when sells edged the day due to the ISDX trades. The buys just about have it today but both days have been a healthy volume bearing in mind only 50m available. More consolidation in the high teens and the MM's always manage to encourage a few more out with a dip rather than just hoping for sales as we climb. Nice work. :D

H1 production may be announced Monday (it's the 12th and they managed to get them out for Mon 13th last year) and will see this climbing again.

[someuwin] 08/7/2016 16:04

Yes - all looking very good for significant gains here.

[jbe81] 08/7/2016 15:20

Things looking very good for AAZ next week, especially with the strength in the price of gold